Expedia (EXPE)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $251.4 | Market Cap: $30.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Expedia (EXPE)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $251.4Market Cap: $30.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 10% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Key risksEXPE key risks include [1] lagging B2C growth in its Hotels.com and Vrbo brands and [2] substantial exposure to the softening U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.1 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 10% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Online Marketplaces, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Key risksEXPE key risks include [1] lagging B2C growth in its Hotels.com and Vrbo brands and [2] substantial exposure to the softening U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. CFO Transition Announcement Introduced Investor Uncertainty.
Expedia's stock experienced a notable decline on April 23, 2026, dropping 4.3% to 5.4%, following the announcement that CFO Scott Schenkel would step down effective May 11, 2026, with Derek Andersen appointed as his successor. This leadership change created investor uncertainty regarding the company's financial strategy and messaging, particularly as it occurred just weeks before the upcoming Q1 2026 earnings report.
2. Modest 2026 Margin Outlook and Broader Sector Concerns.
Following the Q4 2025 earnings report on February 12, 2026, Expedia's stock slid, including a 6.25% drop on February 17, 2026. This decline was linked to investors' reactions to the company's "relatively modest 2026 margin-expansion outlook" provided in its guidance. Additionally, the online travel sector faced broader concerns from analysts regarding "demand sensitivity, marketing intensity, and AI-driven traffic risk," which contributed to pressure on stock valuations.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.1% change in EXPE stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 282.70 | 251.44 | -11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,370 | 14,733 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 8.8% | -9.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.2 | 23.8 | -5.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 124 | 123 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXPE | -11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.6% | 45.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.1% change in EXPE stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 212.93 | 251.44 | 18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,018 | 14,733 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.2 | 23.8 | -1.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 126 | 123 | 3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 35.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.8% change in EXPE stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 166.74 | 251.44 | 50.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 13,691 | 14,733 | 7.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 8.8% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 23.8 | 37.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 129 | 123 | 4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 50.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 56.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.9% | 58.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 161.8% change in EXPE stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 191.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.04 | 251.44 | 161.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,667 | 14,733 | 26.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 8.8% | 191.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 42.4 | 23.8 | -43.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 123 | 26.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 161.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 161.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.3% | 48.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXPE Return | 36% | -52% | 73% | 23% | 53% | -11% | 91% |
| Peers Return | -4% | -32% | 24% | 7% | -14% | -7% | -30% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXPE Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 48% | 58% | 55% | 40% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXPE Max Drawdown | -7% | -54% | 0% | -28% | -27% | -33% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -44% | -20% | -27% | -33% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BKNG, ABNB, TRIP, SABR, GBTG. See EXPE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXPE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 968 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 236 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 460 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -82.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 479.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,874 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to BKNG, ABNB, TRIP, SABR, GBTG
In The Past
Expedia's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Expedia (EXPE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: 'Amazon for travel'
Analogy 2: 'Procter & Gamble (P&G) for travel brands'
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Online Travel Bookings (Retail): Expedia Group provides comprehensive online booking services for flights, hotels, car rentals, vacation packages, and cruises through its various consumer-facing brands like Expedia, Hotels.com, Orbitz, and Travelocity.
- Alternative Accommodations Marketplace (Vrbo): Operates an online marketplace dedicated to booking vacation rentals and other non-hotel lodging options worldwide.
- Business-to-Business Travel Solutions: Offers travel technology, APIs, and corporate travel management services (through Expedia Partner Solutions and Egencia) to airlines, financial institutions, and other businesses.
- Hotel Metasearch (Trivago): Runs a metasearch website that compares hotel prices from numerous online travel agencies and direct hotel providers, referring users to booking sites.
- Advertising and Media Services: Provides advertising opportunities and media solutions for travel partners and other businesses across its extensive network of travel websites.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) primarily serves individual travelers through its extensive portfolio of consumer-facing brands within its Retail segment. While the company also has significant B2B operations, the breadth and volume of its direct-to-consumer offerings indicate that individuals are its primary customers.
Expedia serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals planning and booking personal trips, including flights, hotels, car rentals, cruises, and vacation packages. This category encompasses a wide range of travelers, from budget-conscious (e.g., CheapTickets, Hotwire) to luxury seekers (Classic Vacations), using brands like Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, Orbitz, Travelocity, and ebookers.
- Corporate Travelers: Individuals traveling for business purposes. While often facilitated by corporate travel management services (such as Egencia, which serves the employer company), the individual corporate traveler is the direct user of the booking platforms and the recipient of the travel services.
- Alternative Accommodation Seekers: Individuals specifically seeking vacation rentals, private homes, and unique stays instead of traditional hotels, primarily served through its Vrbo brand. This distinct category reflects the growing demand for non-hotel lodging options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Here is the management team for Expedia Group (EXPE):Ariane Gorin, Chief Executive Officer
Ariane Gorin was appointed CEO of Expedia Group effective May 13, 2024. She has served in executive leadership roles at Expedia Group for over 11 years, most recently as President of Expedia for Business since 2021. In this role, she led Expedia Group's global B2B business, encompassing travel suppliers, the advertising business, and the B2B partner network. Ms. Gorin delivered significant financial results, including 33% B2B revenue growth in 2023 versus 2022. She has also been a member of Expedia Group's Board of Directors since February 2024.
Julie Whalen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Julie Whalen became the Chief Financial Officer of Expedia Group on September 26, 2022. She brings over two decades of finance experience, having previously served as the Executive Vice President and CFO of Williams-Sonoma, Inc. for ten years. Before her CFO role at Williams-Sonoma, Inc., she held various positions of increasing responsibility within their finance organization for over two decades. Ms. Whalen began her career in the audit practice at KPMG. She also served on Expedia Group's Board of Directors and Audit Committee from June 2019, and was the Chair of the Audit Committee for two years. She earned her Doctor of Law (JD) from Pepperdine Caruso Law and a Bachelor of Science (BS) in Accounting and Finance from Pepperdine University.
Jochen Koedijk, Chief Marketing Officer
As Expedia Group's Chief Marketing Officer, Jochen Koedijk is responsible for leading the marketing teams, which include advertising, creative, performance marketing, and machine learning science and engineering. His teams focus on inspiring, engaging, and maximizing value for travelers.
Alfonso Paredes, President of Expedia Group B2B
Alfonso Paredes serves as the President of Expedia Group B2B. In this role, he is responsible for powering the industry with Expedia Group's technology and supply.
Shilpa Ranganathan, Chief Product Officer
Shilpa Ranganathan holds the position of Chief Product Officer at Expedia Group. In this capacity, she oversees the company's product strategy and development.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Expedia Group (EXPE) are primarily driven by the highly competitive nature of the online travel industry, its reliance on digital customer acquisition channels, and the inherent sensitivity of travel demand to macroeconomic conditions.
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Intense Competition: Expedia operates in a fiercely contested global online travel agency (OTA) market. The company faces significant competition from other established OTAs like Booking Holdings, which often holds a stronger international presence and market share. Additionally, direct competition comes from alternative accommodation platforms such as Airbnb (challenging Vrbo) and from large technology companies like Google Travel, which can divert user traffic by integrating travel search functionality directly into its search results. Airlines and hotel chains also pose a threat by promoting direct bookings through their own websites and loyalty programs, aiming to reduce their reliance on OTAs. This intense competitive landscape puts continuous pressure on Expedia's market share, pricing strategies, and profitability.
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Reliance on Search Engine Algorithms and Rising Customer Acquisition Costs: A significant portion of Expedia's customer traffic and bookings is generated through search engine optimization and paid search advertising. Consequently, the company is highly vulnerable to changes in search engine algorithms (particularly Google's) or increased competition for online advertising space. Any adverse changes in these algorithms could negatively impact Expedia's visibility and traffic, while increased bidding for keywords could drive up customer acquisition costs, thereby reducing profit margins and hindering growth.
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Macroeconomic Factors and Disruptions to the Travel Industry: Expedia's financial performance is intrinsically linked to the overall health of the worldwide travel industry and global economic conditions. Factors such as economic downturns, inflation impacting consumer discretionary spending, geopolitical conflicts, and political instability can dramatically and suddenly affect consumer travel behavior and decrease demand. For instance, a persistent softness in the U.S. consumer travel market has been identified as a challenge for Expedia due to its significant exposure to this region. Furthermore, unforeseen events, such as pandemics, can severely restrict economic activity and have an unprecedented negative impact on the global travel industry, as seen with COVID-19.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following are clear emerging threats for Expedia (EXPE):
- The emergence of AI-powered travel planning and booking agents: Rapid advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to sophisticated conversational agents capable of understanding complex user preferences, creating personalized itineraries, and booking travel services directly across various providers. This could disintermediate traditional online travel agencies (OTAs) by offering a more seamless, integrated, and intuitive planning-to-booking experience that bypasses existing interfaces.
- Google's increasing role as a direct travel planning and booking platform: Google continues to expand and deeply integrate its suite of travel products (e.g., Google Flights, Google Hotels, Google Vacation Rentals, Google Things to Do). By providing comprehensive search, comparison, and booking functionalities directly within its ecosystem, Google increasingly acts as a primary intermediary. This strategy can funnel users away from OTAs like Expedia, reducing their traffic, visibility, and value proposition as the default starting point for travel planning.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expedia Group (EXPE) operates in several large and dynamic addressable markets through its diverse portfolio of brands.
Online Travel Agencies (OTA)
- The global online travel agencies market size was valued at USD 663.70 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 1,316.67 billion by 2033.
- North America's online travel agencies industry captured 29.67% of the overall global industry in 2025.
- The U.S. online travel agency market continues to expand, with 75% of travelers using OTA platforms for at least one booking in 2024.
- The online travel agencies market in Europe accounted for a revenue share of 31.72% in 2025.
Hotel Booking and Accommodation
- The global hotels market size was valued at USD 2,080.57 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 3,931.42 billion by 2034.
- Europe held the dominant hotels market share in 2025, valued at USD 749.84 billion.
- The North American hotels market, including the U.S. and Canada, was valued at USD 609.98 billion in 2025.
- The global hotel industry is worth an estimated $570 billion, with 60% of bookings made online.
Vacation Rentals (Alternative Accommodations)
- The global vacation rental market size was estimated at USD 101.69 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 121.94 billion by 2033.
- Another estimate values the global vacation rental market at USD 97.85 billion in 2025, expecting it to reach approximately USD 138.74 billion by 2035.
- Europe led the global vacation rental market with a 33.89% share in 2025.
- The North American vacation rental industry held a global revenue share of 23.36% in 2025.
- Vrbo, an Expedia brand, commands roughly 22% of the U.S. vacation rental market.
Car Rental
- The global car rental market size was estimated at USD 149.87 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 278.03 billion by 2030.
- North America accounted for over 36.39% of the global car rental market revenue in 2024.
- The car rental industry in the U.S. is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% from 2025 to 2030.
Cruise
- The global cruise market size was estimated at USD 17.98 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 33.21 billion by 2032.
- Another source values the global cruise market at USD 10.2 billion in 2025, expecting it to reach USD 29.2 billion by 2034.
- The global cruise market size was also estimated at USD 9.84 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 25.06 billion by 2033.
- The global cruise tourism market size is calculated at USD 5.47 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 8.99 billion by 2034.
Corporate Travel Management
- The global business travel market size was estimated at USD 1,851.61 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3,255.11 billion by 2033.
- Another report values the global business travel market at USD 1,380.00 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 2,765.34 billion by 2034.
- The North American business travel market accounted for the largest share of 27.40% of the global market in 2025.
- The Asia Pacific region dominated the business travel market with a market share of 38.61% in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expedia Group (EXPE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategic initiatives and ongoing market trends:
- Expansion of the Business-to-Business (B2B) Segment: Expedia's B2B segment has consistently demonstrated strong growth, with significant increases in gross bookings and revenue, and is identified as a primary engine for future expansion. This segment partners with corporate travel managers, airlines, and financial institutions, leveraging Expedia's technology and travel supply.
- Continued Growth in Lodging Bookings and Overall Travel Demand: A core driver for Expedia remains the sustained increase in booked room nights and lodging gross bookings, particularly within its hotel business. The company has reported double-digit growth in these areas, reflecting ongoing strong execution and robust travel demand.
- Strategic Investments in Technology and AI, including the "One Key" Loyalty Program: Expedia is focusing on enhancing customer experiences and operational efficiencies through significant investments in technology and artificial intelligence. This includes the global rollout of its unified loyalty program, "One Key," which aims to improve customer retention, increase booking frequency, and enable better personalization. AI is also being used to refine advertising effectiveness and optimize trip discovery.
- International Market Expansion and Increased Cross-Border Travel: The company is targeting growth in international lodging and cross-border travel, with a focus on increasing Vrbo's penetration outside North America and expanding supply in regions like EMEA and APAC. Increased international demand is expected to contribute to overall revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Expedia Group's Board of Directors approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization in November 2023, augmenting existing authorizations.
- The company repurchased approximately $2.137 billion in stock in 2023.
- Expedia Group bought back $1.839 billion in shares in 2024 and $1.93 billion in 2025. In 2021, the company made no share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In February 2021, Expedia Group completed a private placement of $1 billion in 0% convertible senior notes due 2026, generating approximately $983 million in net proceeds. These notes are convertible into common stock at a rate of 3.9212 shares per $1,000 principal amount.
- The company regularly grants restricted stock units (RSUs) and performance stock units (PSUs) as part of its executive and employee compensation programs.
Outbound Investments
- Expedia Group acquired Tiqets, a ticket booking platform, in December 2025.
- Overall, Expedia Group has engaged in minimal acquisition activity over the last five years (2020-2025), averaging 0.2 acquisitions per year.
Capital Expenditures
- From 2021 to 2025, Expedia Group's capital expenditures averaged $741.4 million annually.
- Capital expenditures reached a peak of $846 million in 2023.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to maintain and enhance the company's technology platform, which supports its growth drivers, including a "tech stack unification" that occurred from 2020–2023.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 06302022 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -8.1% | 15.4% | -11.7% |
| 03312020 | EXPE | Expedia | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 63.1% | 205.9% | -14.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 77.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,543 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,235 |
| FCF LTM | 1,636 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,281 |
| CFO LTM | 2,062 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 22.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 16.9 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 14.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.4 |
| P/E | 26.9 |
| P/CFO | 10.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-to-customer (B2C) | 9,113 | 8,741 | 6,821 | 3,993 | 8,808 |
| Business-to-business (B2B) | 3,388 | 2,546 | 1,460 | 942 | 2,579 |
| Trivago | 525 | 561 | 423 | 280 | 938 |
| Corporate & Eliminations | -187 | -181 | -106 | -16 | -258 |
| Total | 12,839 | 11,667 | 8,598 | 5,199 | 12,067 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-to-customer (B2C) | 1,810 | 1,617 | 1,277 | -285 | 1,601 |
| Business-to-business (B2B) | 681 | 518 | 8 | -321 | 323 |
| Trivago | 51 | 105 | 29 | -26 | 74 |
| Corporate & Eliminations | -1,509 | -1,155 | -1,128 | -2,087 | -1,095 |
| Total | 1,033 | 1,085 | 186 | -2,719 | 903 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $251.44 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 30.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/21/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $231.41 | $233.25 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 8.7% | 7.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 62.7% | 46.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.90 | 0.65 |
| Upside Capture | 89.73 | 134.40 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 33.8% | 40.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.36 | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.52 | 1.39 |
| Up Beta | -0.85 | 2.83 | 2.70 | 1.56 | 1.79 | 1.54 |
| Down Beta | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.58 | 1.72 | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Up Capture | 97% | 93% | 69% | 145% | 162% | 256% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 19 | 26 | 61 | 129 | 389 |
| Down Capture | -35% | 138% | 138% | 109% | 111% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 37 | 65 | 122 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 62.5% | 46.3% | 1.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 25.6% | 18.9% | 1.07 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 40.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 22.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 17.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 7.7% | 45.6% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.8% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 55.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 39.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 22.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EXPE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPE | 9.3% | 43.7% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 55.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 52.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 18.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 15.6% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/12/2026 | -6.4% | -10.5% | 2.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | 17.5% | 21.7% | 19.1% |
| 8/7/2025 | 4.1% | 10.4% | 16.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -7.3% | -1.6% | 4.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | 17.3% | 17.7% | 2.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.8% | 4.7% | 8.8% |
| 8/8/2024 | 10.2% | 12.1% | 12.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -15.3% | -17.3% | -16.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 12.1% | 13.7% |
| Median Negative | -7.6% | -7.0% | -13.0% |
| Max Positive | 18.8% | 21.7% | 47.4% |
| Max Negative | -17.8% | -26.9% | -27.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Gross bookings | 34.60 Bil | 34.90 Bil | 35.20 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 3.32 Bil | 3.35 Bil | 3.37 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | ||||
| 2026 Gross bookings | 127.00 Bil | 128.00 Bil | 129.00 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | 15.60 Bil | 15.80 Bil | 16.00 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion | 1.0% | 1.13% | 1.25% | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Gross bookings growth | 7.0% | 16.7% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.0% for Q3 2025 | ||
| Q4 2025 Revenue growth | 7.0% | 40.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for Q3 2025 | ||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion | 2.0% | 166.7% | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 0.75% for Q3 2025 | ||
| 2025 Gross bookings growth | 7.0% | 75.0% | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Revenue growth | 6.5% | 62.5% | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion | 2.0% | 100.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.0% for 2025 | ||
EXPE Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Expedia scores a 6, warranting a 'MARKET WEIGHT' rating. The investment case presents a balanced conflict: a genuinely strong and undervalued B2B growth engine (the Alpha Driver) is being offset by a decelerating and highly contested core B2C business (the Anti-Alpha). While the stock is cheap and benefits from sector tailwinds, the competitive trajectory is not yet widening, and the risk/reward asymmetry is only moderately favorable. It's a valid transition story, but not yet a 'fat pitch'.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'Expedia is a former high-growth company now in a strategic pivot. The core B2C business is maturing (+5% growth), while the new growth engine, the B2B segment, is accelerating rapidly (+24% growth). The investment thesis hinges on the margin expansion and re-rating potential from this mix shift, which aligns perfectly with the 'Transition / Profit Pivot' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The market is undervaluing Expedia's transformation into a travel technology platform, driven by its high-growth B2B segment. This segment is growing nearly five times faster than the core consumer business, leading to a favorable revenue mix shift that will accelerate overall growth and expand consolidated margins, justifying a higher valuation multiple.
- B2B gross bookings surged by 24% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing the B2C segment's 5% growth.
- Management has guided for 100-125 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in FY2026, driven by this favorable mix.
- The B2B segment has posted 18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, indicating durable momentum.
- Expedia has robust free cash flow generation ($3.11 billion in FY2025), providing capital to reinvest in the B2B platform.
PRIMARY RISK
The core B2C segment, which still represents the majority of revenue (60%), is experiencing a significant growth slowdown and is losing ground to its primary competitor, Booking Holdings. This deceleration acts as a major drag on consolidated results and could prevent the market from re-rating the stock, even if the B2B segment performs well.
- B2C gross bookings grew only 5% YoY in Q4 2025, a sharp deceleration.
- Expedia's total gross bookings growth (11%) in Q4 2025 lagged its primary competitor, Booking Holdings (16%).
- The core health verdict is 'WEAKENING' based on decelerating KPIs for Gross Bookings and Booked Room Nights.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| B2B Gross Bookings Growth YoY | > 20% | This is the Alpha Driver. Sustained growth above 20% is necessary to validate the thesis that the B2B segment can drive a meaningful mix shift and re-rating for the entire company. |
| B2C Gross Bookings Growth YoY | > 3% | This is the primary friction. The B2C segment must demonstrate stability and avoid contraction. If this metric falls below low-single-digits, it will likely overwhelm the positive B2B story. |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin Expansion (YoY bps) | > 100 bps | This measures the financial outcome of the strategic pivot. The company must prove it can translate the B2B growth into tangible, company-wide margin improvement consistent with or better than guidance. |
B2B Growth Engine vs. B2C Competitive Drag
BULL VIEW
B2B growth (>20%) and margin expansion from the mix shift will transform the narrative from a slow-growth consumer stock to a valuable B2B travel-tech platform.
CORE TENSION
Can the high-growth, high-margin B2B segment accelerate enough to offset the decelerating, highly competitive core B2C business and drive a valuation re-rating?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bears are winning the recent narrative, as evidenced by the -6.4% stock drop after Q4 2025 earnings despite a beat, due to concerns over modest FY26 margin guidance.
BEAR VIEW
The core B2C segment (60% of revenue) is losing share to Booking.com. This structural weakness will anchor consolidated growth to single digits, preventing a re-rating.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Divergence between B2C Gross Bookings Growth (must be >3%) and B2B Gross Bookings Growth (must be >20%) vs. Q4's +5% and +24% baseline. |
May-June 2026 | Google I/O Conference (or similar AI event) Watch: Announcement of end-to-end travel booking capabilities integrated directly within Google's generative AI search results. |
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update Watch: Full-year Adjusted EBITDA Margin guidance. Watch for reaffirmation or any change to the 100-125 bps expansion target established post-Q4 2025. |
Anytime / Next 6 months | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Designation Watch: Formal designation of Expedia Group as a 'gatekeeper' by the European Commission, following the precedent set with Booking.com. |
Ongoing | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release Watch: Sequential increase in 90+ day credit card delinquency rates for two consecutive months, signaling deteriorating consumer health. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 6, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings & 'One Key' Update Details: Reported strong Q3 results that significantly beat expectations. Management highlighted the successful integration of its 'One Key' loyalty program, driving customer engagement. | Surged +17.55% $218.85 -> $257.26 |
Nov 10, 2025 | Analyst 'Buy' Rating Details: Argus Research issued a 'Buy' rating following strong Q3 results. The stock saw minor profit-taking after the massive post-earnings surge. | Slight -1.02% pullback $267.01 -> $264.30 |
Dec 19, 2025 | Analyst 'Buy' Rating Details: B of A Securities issued a 'Buy' rating on the stock, contributing to positive analyst sentiment. The market reaction was muted after a strong recent run. | Flat (0.01%) $288.62 -> $288.66 |
Jan 8, 2026 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: Stock traded to its highest level in over a year, driven by positive momentum from the Q3 earnings beat and optimism about the B2B growth story. | Modest 1.39% gain $296.53 -> $300.65 |
Jan 26, 2026 | Restructuring and Job Cuts Details: Company confirmed it was eliminating roles, including 162 at its Seattle HQ, to simplify its structure and reduce organizational layers to improve speed. | Slight -1.02% pullback $268.90 -> $266.16 |
Feb 12, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & Guidance Details: Beat estimates with B2B gross bookings up 24% and B2C up 5%. Stock fell sharply due to guidance for 'modest' FY2026 margin expansion of only 100-125 bps. | Plummeted -6.41% $226.74 -> $212.20 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock trades with 'Explosive' volatility (4.8x S&P) and is spiking near-term. While fundamentals are Bullish and valuation is Cheap, this extreme volatility prevents an aggressive position. Capping size manages drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
BKNG
INDUSTRYSuperior growth (16% vs EXPE's 11% in Q4 2025) and dominant market share in Europe. A stronger horse in the same race for investors prioritizing execution.
ABNB
SECTORUnlike EXPE, has a durable moat in the unique/alternative accommodations niche. Superior asset-light business model drives higher profitability (Net Margin 22.6% vs EXPE's 8.5%).
Expedia is evolving from a consumer-focused travel booking site into a diversified travel technology platform, where the high-growth, high-margin B2B segment is becoming the primary driver of value creation.
Filter all news through the lens of the B2B segment's growth and margin contribution versus the more mature B2C business.
B2B gross bookings growth >+20% YoY; new large-scale partnership announcements for its B2B platform (Expedia for Business); evidence of margin expansion driven by B2B's increasing revenue share; analyst commentary highlighting the B2B segment's value.
Deceleration in B2B bookings growth below 15%; loss of a major B2B partner; increased competition in the travel-as-a-service space from players like Amadeus or Sabre; signs of margin compression in the B2B segment.
Quarterly fluctuations in consumer (B2C) travel demand; short-term changes in Vrbo's performance vs. Airbnb; minor changes to the 'One Key' loyalty program; executive commentary on general travel trends without segment-specific data.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-evaluating Expedia as its B2B segment, which grew gross bookings by 24% in Q4 2025, significantly outpaces the B2C segment's 5% growth. [13, 15] This shift towards a higher-margin, more predictable revenue stream is the primary catalyst for a potential re-rating from a consumer discretionary stock to a travel technology platform.
Business-to-Consumer (B2C) Brands
$8.8B TTM (60% of Total) · 31.5% MarginWhat It Is
Travel booking services via consumer-facing brands: Expedia.com, Hotels.com, and Vrbo (vacation rentals).
Who Pays & How
Travelers pay for flights, hotels, car rentals, and vacation stays. They use Expedia's platforms for price comparison, bundled deals (packages), and access to a wide variety of inventory. The unified 'One Key' loyalty program aims to create switching costs.
Competition
Business-to-Business (B2B) Platform
$5.2B TTM (37% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
Expedia for Business (formerly Expedia Partner Solutions) provides travel technology and inventory to third parties like airlines, travel agencies, and financial institutions via its Rapid API.
Who Pays & How
Airlines, hotel chains, banks (for loyalty programs), and other travel companies pay to access Expedia's global inventory and booking technology to power their own travel offerings without building the infrastructure themselves. [16]
Competition
Trivago & Advertising
$0.7B TTM (3% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Advertising revenue from Trivago (a hotel metasearch engine) and Expedia Group Media Solutions.
Who Pays & How
Hotels, airlines, and other travel providers pay to advertise on Expedia's various websites and on Trivago to gain visibility and attract bookings.
Competition
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