Evolent Health (EVH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.03 | Market Cap: $459.7 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Evolent Health (EVH)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.03Market Cap: $459.7 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% | ||
| Key risksEVH key risks include [1] challenges in managing key client contracts, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Key risksEVH key risks include [1] challenges in managing key client contracts, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EVH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for Evolent Health (EVH) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, falls in the future. Therefore, it is not possible to provide factual key points explaining a -58.1% stock movement during this period. The information available pertains to past and projected performance and news events leading up to December 2025. Based on the available information from the approximate time period leading up to today (December 18, 2025), here are some key points regarding Evolent Health's stock performance and relevant events: **1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results and Conservative Q4 Guidance.** Evolent Health reported mixed third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, with revenue exceeding forecasts but a substantial miss on profitability metrics. The company's Q3 2025 revenue was $479.5 million, beating estimates by 0.2%, but non-GAAP EPS was $0.05, missing estimates by 54.5%. Additionally, year-over-year revenue decreased by 22.8%. Following these results, the company issued conservative guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of $467 million, which was approximately 1.2% below analyst expectations, and reaffirmed Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $462.0 million to $472.0 million. This conservative outlook and divergence between top-line and bottom-line performance could contribute to investor concerns. **2. Strategic Divestiture of Value-Based Primary Care Business.** On September 23, 2025, Evolent Health announced its agreement to sell its value-based primary care business, Evolent Care Partners (ECP), to Privia Health Group, Inc. for up to $113 million in cash. The company stated that this strategic divestiture would allow it to focus on its core specialty business and accelerate its path to reducing leverage and improving cash flow. While the company aims to use the proceeds to prepay senior term debt and expects an improvement in annual cash flow, the sale of a business segment could be perceived negatively by some investors, especially given the company's prior year's stock decline of over 70%. **3. Issuance of Convertible Senior Notes.** On August 19, 2025, Evolent Health announced the pricing of an oversubscribed and upsized $145.0 million aggregate principal amount of 4.50% convertible senior notes due 2031. The company intended to use approximately $100.2 million of the net proceeds to repurchase existing convertible senior notes due 2025 and approximately $40.0 million to repurchase shares of its Class A common stock. While these actions were aimed at managing debt and shareholder value, the issuance of convertible notes can sometimes lead to concerns about potential dilution if converted into stock in the future. **4. Analyst Price Target Decreases and EPS Estimate Revisions.** Leading up to December 2025, analysts have revised their expectations for Evolent Health. On November 8, 2025, the price target was decreased by 7.7% to US$14.27. Consensus EPS estimates also saw declines, falling by 13% on November 13, 2025, and by 19% on August 18, 2025. Such downward revisions in analyst forecasts and price targets can negatively influence investor sentiment and contribute to stock price declines. **5. Ongoing Unprofitability and Future Outlook.** Evolent Health has not been consistently profitable, and analyst forecasts, as of December 11, 2025, suggest the company is expected to remain unprofitable over the next three years. While revenue growth is projected, the lack of consistent profitability and potential membership declines in key markets like Medicaid, exchange, and Medicare Advantage for 2026 introduce uncertainty for investors. The company's net debt of $910 million, reflecting a high leverage ratio, also presents a challenge.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVH Return | 77% | 73% | 1% | 18% | -66% | -64% | -55% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -14% | -12% | -22% | 17% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVH Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 43% | 50% | 45% | 43% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVH Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -21% | -16% | -68% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -30% | -29% | -45% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, CVS, ALHC, AGL, PRVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 394.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 785 days | 120 days |
Compare to PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL
In The Past
Evolent Health's stock fell -44.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -44.7% loss requires a 81.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Evolent Health Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Evolent Health Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Evolent Health Stock Moved: EVH Stock Has Lost 88% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: TLN, CRSP, IVZ | Losers: SRPT, EVH, ENOV | July 19th, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 43% after 11-Day Win Streak | July 4th, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 43% after 11-Day Win Streak | July 3rd, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 42% after 10-Day Win Streak | July 2nd, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 30% after 5-Day Win Streak | June 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EVH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 12312024 | EVH | Evolent Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | -63.8% | -68.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.1% | -7.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.6% | 3.6% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -5.1% |
| 12312024 | EVH | Evolent Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | -63.8% | -68.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Evolent Health
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,761 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15 |
| FCF LTM | 131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 59 |
| CFO LTM | 146 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 74 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 3.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.3 |
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.7 |
| Total Yield | -0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -94.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performance Suite | 1,215 | 809 | |||
| Specialty Technology and Services Suite | 296 | 52 | |||
| Administrative Services | 296 | 408 | |||
| Cases | 157 | 84 | |||
| Clinical Solutions | 598 | 542 | |||
| Evolent Health Services | 312 | 385 | |||
| Intersegment Eliminations | -2 | -3 | -13 | ||
| Services | 687 | ||||
| True Health | 173 | ||||
| Total | 1,964 | 1,352 | 908 | 925 | 846 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -17.3% | -30.7% | -34.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | -7.1% | -9.0% | -0.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | -16.0% | -18.2% | -21.3% |
| 2/20/2025 | -2.6% | -19.0% | -10.6% |
| 11/7/2024 | -45.6% | -48.4% | -54.9% |
| 8/8/2024 | 26.5% | 30.3% | 45.0% |
| 5/9/2024 | -9.3% | -13.5% | -12.0% |
| 2/22/2024 | 14.4% | 13.9% | 8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 12.3% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -11.5% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 26.5% | 30.3% | 48.7% |
| Max Negative | -45.6% | -48.4% | -56.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Springstubb Brendan B | 11192025 | Buy | 3.82 | 10,000 | 38,199 | 224,690 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |