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Evolent Health (EVH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.93 | Market Cap: $448.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology

Evolent Health (EVH)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.93
Market Cap: $448.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Technology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EVH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions**

Oppenheimer significantly lowered its price target for Evolent Health (EVH) from $18.00 to $12.00, a 33.33% reduction, which contributed to a 10.3% drop in shares on November 12, 2025. RBC Capital Markets also reduced its price target from $20 to $17 in January 2025, citing higher than expected oncology trends and membership declines as negative impacts on the company's financials. **2. Missed Earnings Estimates and Weak Guidance**

Evolent Health reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.05 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.1 per share by 50% on November 6, 2025. Earlier in February 2025, the company also missed fourth-quarter estimates and provided lower-than-anticipated revenue guidance for full-year 2025, forecasting $2.06 billion to $2.11 billion, well below analyst expectations of $2.42 billion. **3. Elevated Oncology Costs and Membership Declines**

Concerns over higher-than-expected oncology trends and membership declines were identified as factors likely to negatively impact Evolent Health's financials, particularly its 2025 EBITDA. These rising medical costs were acknowledged even as the company stated demand for its complex specialty care solutions remained robust. **4. Broader Market Shift Away from Growth-Oriented Stocks**

A general market rotation in November 2025 saw investors moving away from growth-oriented technology stocks towards value-oriented names due to growing valuation concerns and negative catalysts in the AI sector. As a healthcare solutions company, Evolent Health may have been affected by this broader sentiment against growth and tech-related sectors. **5. Revised Downward Adjusted EBITDA Outlook**

As of November 2024, Evolent Health indicated it no longer expected to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA run rate of $300 million by the end of 2024. This downward revision in the company's financial outlook likely contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment extending into 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EVH Return77%73%1%18%-66%-66%-57%
Peers Return20%7%-27%1%12%5%10%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EVH Win Rate58%75%50%67%25%30% 
Peers Win Rate43%37%27%37%43%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EVH Max Drawdown-60%0%-21%-16%-68%-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-9%-32%-22%-18%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEVHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven223.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven394.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven785 days120 days

Compare to PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL


In The Past

Evolent Health's stock fell -44.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -44.7% loss requires a 81.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Evolent Health (EVH)

Better Bets than Evolent Health (EVH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EVH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
EVH_12312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312024EVHEvolent HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%-65.5%-68.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
EVH_12312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312024EVHEvolent HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%-65.5%-68.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolent Health

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EVHPEGANTCTTRIPVRNTCARLMedian
NameEvolent .Pegasyst.NetScout.Tripadvi.Verint S.Carlsmed  
Mkt Price3.9154.7227.2115.26-16.9916.99
Mkt Cap0.49.32.01.8--1.9
Rev LTM2,0541,7328631,891-331,732
Op Inc LTM-1303110145--24110
FCF LTM-69431256259--30256
FCF 3Y Avg32300164157--161
CFO LTM-36442263345--29263
CFO 3Y Avg62315172229--200

Growth & Margins

EVHPEGANTCTTRIPVRNTCARLMedian
NameEvolent .Pegasyst.NetScout.Tripadvi.Verint S.Carlsmed  
Rev Chg LTM-16.6%17.0%9.6%4.2%--6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.7%11.9%-0.7%11.6%--11.8%
Rev Chg Q-22.8%17.3%14.6%3.9%--9.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-6.5%3.4%3.3%1.1%--2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-0.0%17.5%12.7%7.7%--71.4%7.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.9%9.8%9.2%6.8%--8.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.8%1.5%-0.0%--0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.8%25.5%30.5%18.2%--86.4%18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%20.2%20.3%12.5%--16.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.3%24.9%29.6%13.7%--88.9%13.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.4%19.2%19.5%8.6%--13.9%

Valuation

EVHPEGANTCTTRIPVRNTCARLMedian
NameEvolent .Pegasyst.NetScout.Tripadvi.Verint S.Carlsmed  
Mkt Cap0.49.32.01.8--1.9
P/S0.55.72.21.0--1.6
P/EBIT-11.629.517.212.9--15.0
P/E-7.535.320.823.9--22.3
P/CFO-26.722.27.15.5--6.3
Total Yield-13.3%3.0%4.8%4.2%--3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%4.5%9.2%7.8%--6.2%
D/E1.10.00.00.7--0.3
Net D/E1.0-0.0-0.30.0---0.0

Returns

EVHPEGANTCTTRIPVRNTCARLMedian
NameEvolent .Pegasyst.NetScout.Tripadvi.Verint S.Carlsmed  
1M Rtn-41.8%-13.1%-1.7%-0.9%-39.0%-1.7%
3M Rtn-59.2%1.6%10.0%-11.2%-31.1%1.6%
6M Rtn-51.8%8.0%17.4%5.7%--6.9%
12M Rtn-66.6%14.8%23.0%7.8%--11.3%
3Y Rtn-86.3%197.9%-27.9%-24.9%---26.4%
1M Excs Rtn-41.8%-13.1%-1.7%-0.9%-39.1%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-64.1%-3.6%3.3%-20.4%-26.3%-3.6%
6M Excs Rtn-66.5%-6.7%2.7%-9.0%---7.9%
12M Excs Rtn-83.3%1.9%10.8%-7.1%---2.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-158.3%132.9%-99.2%-94.3%---96.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Performance Suite1,215809   
Specialty Technology and Services Suite29652   
Administrative Services296408   
Cases15784   
Clinical Solutions  598542 
Evolent Health Services  312385 
Intersegment Eliminations  -2-3-13
Services    687
True Health    173
Total1,9641,352908925846


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,762,717
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.0%
Average Daily Volume6,366,075
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.95
Basic Shares Quantity114,066,000
Short % of Basic Shares16.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Springstubb Brendan B 11192025Buy3.8210,00038,199224,690Form