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Evolent Health (EVH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.03 | Market Cap: $459.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology

Evolent Health (EVH)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $4.03
Market Cap: $459.7 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Technology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
5   Key risks
EVH key risks include [1] challenges in managing key client contracts, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -129%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17%
8 Key risks
EVH key risks include [1] challenges in managing key client contracts, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EVH Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Evolent Health (EVH) stock movement, from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, falls in the future. Therefore, it is not possible to provide factual key points explaining a -58.1% stock movement during this period. The information available pertains to past and projected performance and news events leading up to December 2025. Based on the available information from the approximate time period leading up to today (December 18, 2025), here are some key points regarding Evolent Health's stock performance and relevant events: **1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results and Conservative Q4 Guidance.** Evolent Health reported mixed third-quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, with revenue exceeding forecasts but a substantial miss on profitability metrics. The company's Q3 2025 revenue was $479.5 million, beating estimates by 0.2%, but non-GAAP EPS was $0.05, missing estimates by 54.5%. Additionally, year-over-year revenue decreased by 22.8%. Following these results, the company issued conservative guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting revenue of $467 million, which was approximately 1.2% below analyst expectations, and reaffirmed Q4 2025 revenue guidance of $462.0 million to $472.0 million. This conservative outlook and divergence between top-line and bottom-line performance could contribute to investor concerns. **2. Strategic Divestiture of Value-Based Primary Care Business.** On September 23, 2025, Evolent Health announced its agreement to sell its value-based primary care business, Evolent Care Partners (ECP), to Privia Health Group, Inc. for up to $113 million in cash. The company stated that this strategic divestiture would allow it to focus on its core specialty business and accelerate its path to reducing leverage and improving cash flow. While the company aims to use the proceeds to prepay senior term debt and expects an improvement in annual cash flow, the sale of a business segment could be perceived negatively by some investors, especially given the company's prior year's stock decline of over 70%. **3. Issuance of Convertible Senior Notes.** On August 19, 2025, Evolent Health announced the pricing of an oversubscribed and upsized $145.0 million aggregate principal amount of 4.50% convertible senior notes due 2031. The company intended to use approximately $100.2 million of the net proceeds to repurchase existing convertible senior notes due 2025 and approximately $40.0 million to repurchase shares of its Class A common stock. While these actions were aimed at managing debt and shareholder value, the issuance of convertible notes can sometimes lead to concerns about potential dilution if converted into stock in the future. **4. Analyst Price Target Decreases and EPS Estimate Revisions.** Leading up to December 2025, analysts have revised their expectations for Evolent Health. On November 8, 2025, the price target was decreased by 7.7% to US$14.27. Consensus EPS estimates also saw declines, falling by 13% on November 13, 2025, and by 19% on August 18, 2025. Such downward revisions in analyst forecasts and price targets can negatively influence investor sentiment and contribute to stock price declines. **5. Ongoing Unprofitability and Future Outlook.** Evolent Health has not been consistently profitable, and analyst forecasts, as of December 11, 2025, suggest the company is expected to remain unprofitable over the next three years. While revenue growth is projected, the lack of consistent profitability and potential membership declines in key markets like Medicaid, exchange, and Medicare Advantage for 2026 introduce uncertainty for investors. The company's net debt of $910 million, reflecting a high leverage ratio, also presents a challenge.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EVH Return77%73%1%18%-66%-64%-55%
Peers Return-14%-12%-22%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EVH Win Rate58%75%50%67%25%25% 
Peers Win Rate43%50%45%43%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EVH Max Drawdown-60%0%-21%-16%-68%-69% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-29%-45%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNH, CVS, ALHC, AGL, PRVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEVHS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-44.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven223.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven140 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-79.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven394.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven785 days120 days

Compare to PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL


In The Past

Evolent Health's stock fell -44.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -44.7% loss requires a 81.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Evolent Health (EVH)

Better Bets than Evolent Health (EVH)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EVH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
EVH_12312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312024EVHEvolent HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%-63.8%-68.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.1%-7.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.6%3.6%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-5.1%
EVH_12312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312024EVHEvolent HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%-63.8%-68.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Evolent Health

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EVHUNHCVSALHCAGLPRVAMedian
NameEvolent .UnitedHe.CVS Heal.Alignmen.Agilon H.Privia H. 
Mkt Price4.04331.6377.8820.550.6723.9222.23
Mkt Cap0.5300.598.84.10.32.93.5
Rev LTM2,054435,159394,0843,6375,8862,0434,761
Op Inc LTM-126,35710,7512-3742815
FCF LTM-6917,3726,293151-115111131
FCF 3Y Avg3218,9686,427-30-1548559
CFO LTM-3620,9589,109182-69111146
CFO 3Y Avg6222,4439,2776-1168574

Growth & Margins

EVHUNHCVSALHCAGLPRVAMedian
NameEvolent .UnitedHe.CVS Heal.Alignmen.Agilon H.Privia H. 
Rev Chg LTM-16.6%10.5%6.8%47.4%5.2%19.0%8.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.7%11.4%7.7%38.8%42.2%17.4%20.0%
Rev Chg Q-22.8%12.2%7.8%43.5%-1.1%32.5%10.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-6.5%2.9%1.9%9.0%-0.3%7.5%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM-0.0%6.1%2.7%0.1%-6.4%1.4%0.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.9%7.7%3.3%-4.3%-5.3%1.2%0.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%-1.2%0.1%0.8%0.0%0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-1.8%4.8%2.3%5.0%-1.2%5.4%3.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%5.8%2.5%-0.7%-2.5%4.7%2.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-3.3%4.0%1.6%4.1%-1.9%5.4%2.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.4%4.9%1.8%-2.2%-3.3%4.7%1.6%

Valuation

EVHUNHCVSALHCAGLPRVAMedian
NameEvolent .UnitedHe.CVS Heal.Alignmen.Agilon H.Privia H. 
Mkt Cap0.5300.598.84.10.32.93.5
P/S0.50.70.21.00.11.50.6
P/EBIT-11.611.916.0-7,893.2-1.4108.45.3
P/E-7.517.8204.0-166.9-1.4168.38.2
P/CFO-26.714.910.519.1-6.227.612.7
Total Yield-13.3%8.1%4.0%-0.6%-72.2%0.6%-0.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%3.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%4.5%7.1%-2.7%-13.4%3.3%1.3%
D/E1.10.30.90.10.10.00.2
Net D/E1.00.20.7-0.1-0.6-0.10.0

Returns

EVHUNHCVSALHCAGLPRVAMedian
NameEvolent .UnitedHe.CVS Heal.Alignmen.Agilon H.Privia H. 
1M Rtn4.4%4.2%-0.7%28.1%25.2%3.0%4.3%
3M Rtn-52.7%-2.3%6.1%23.2%-41.0%7.7%1.9%
6M Rtn-53.3%9.4%18.8%42.7%-69.2%9.7%9.5%
12M Rtn-62.8%-30.0%84.4%89.8%-66.4%15.1%-7.5%
3Y Rtn-85.3%-33.1%-8.5%76.2%-96.1%0.5%-20.8%
1M Excs Rtn3.7%3.4%-1.4%27.4%24.5%2.3%3.5%
3M Excs Rtn-55.1%-1.6%4.2%23.3%-43.9%4.5%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-65.7%-3.0%6.4%30.3%-81.5%-2.7%-2.9%
12M Excs Rtn-75.6%-45.8%53.4%68.4%-81.1%3.0%-21.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-153.8%-104.3%-84.3%3.0%-164.6%-69.1%-94.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Performance Suite1,215809   
Specialty Technology and Services Suite29652   
Administrative Services296408   
Cases15784   
Clinical Solutions  598542 
Evolent Health Services  312385 
Intersegment Eliminations  -2-3-13
Services    687
True Health    173
Total1,9641,352908925846


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18,149,677
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-3.3%
Average Daily Volume4,811,889
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.77
Basic Shares Quantity114,066,000
Short % of Basic Shares15.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-17.3%-30.7%-34.3%
8/7/2025-7.1%-9.0%-0.2%
5/8/2025-16.0%-18.2%-21.3%
2/20/2025-2.6%-19.0%-10.6%
11/7/2024-45.6%-48.4%-54.9%
8/8/202426.5%30.3%45.0%
5/9/2024-9.3%-13.5%-12.0%
2/22/202414.4%13.9%8.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131013
# Negative111411
Median Positive4.8%12.3%11.5%
Median Negative-7.1%-11.5%-12.0%
Max Positive26.5%30.3%48.7%
Max Negative-45.6%-48.4%-56.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025509202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Springstubb Brendan B 11192025Buy3.8210,00038,199224,690Form