Evolent Health (EVH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.93 | Market Cap: $448.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Technology
Evolent Health (EVH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.93Market Cap: $448.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Technology
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -137%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -0.7 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 100% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EVH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions**
Oppenheimer significantly lowered its price target for Evolent Health (EVH) from $18.00 to $12.00, a 33.33% reduction, which contributed to a 10.3% drop in shares on November 12, 2025. RBC Capital Markets also reduced its price target from $20 to $17 in January 2025, citing higher than expected oncology trends and membership declines as negative impacts on the company's financials.
**2. Missed Earnings Estimates and Weak Guidance**
Evolent Health reported third-quarter 2025 earnings of $0.05 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.1 per share by 50% on November 6, 2025. Earlier in February 2025, the company also missed fourth-quarter estimates and provided lower-than-anticipated revenue guidance for full-year 2025, forecasting $2.06 billion to $2.11 billion, well below analyst expectations of $2.42 billion.
**3. Elevated Oncology Costs and Membership Declines**
Concerns over higher-than-expected oncology trends and membership declines were identified as factors likely to negatively impact Evolent Health's financials, particularly its 2025 EBITDA. These rising medical costs were acknowledged even as the company stated demand for its complex specialty care solutions remained robust.
**4. Broader Market Shift Away from Growth-Oriented Stocks**
A general market rotation in November 2025 saw investors moving away from growth-oriented technology stocks towards value-oriented names due to growing valuation concerns and negative catalysts in the AI sector. As a healthcare solutions company, Evolent Health may have been affected by this broader sentiment against growth and tech-related sectors.
**5. Revised Downward Adjusted EBITDA Outlook**
As of November 2024, Evolent Health indicated it no longer expected to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA run rate of $300 million by the end of 2024. This downward revision in the company's financial outlook likely contributed to a more cautious investor sentiment extending into 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EVH Return | 77% | 73% | 1% | 18% | -66% | -66% | -57% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 7% | -27% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EVH Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 37% | 27% | 37% | 43% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EVH Max Drawdown | -60% | 0% | -21% | -16% | -68% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -9% | -32% | -22% | -18% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EVH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -79.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 394.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 785 days | 120 days |
Compare to PEGA, NTCT, TRIP, VRNT, CARL
In The Past
Evolent Health's stock fell -44.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -44.7% loss requires a 81.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Evolent Health Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Evolent Health (EVH) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Evolent Health Stock Moved: EVH Stock Has Lost 87% Since 2023 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| EVH Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Market Movers | Winners: TLN, CRSP, IVZ | Losers: SRPT, EVH, ENOV | July 19th, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 43% after 11-Day Win Streak | July 4th, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 43% after 11-Day Win Streak | July 3rd, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 42% after 10-Day Win Streak | July 2nd, 2025 | ||
| EVH Stock Up 30% after 5-Day Win Streak | June 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EVH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 12312024 | EVH | Evolent Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | -65.5% | -68.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| 12312024 | EVH | Evolent Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | -65.5% | -68.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Evolent Health
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,732 |
| Op Inc LTM | 110 |
| FCF LTM | 256 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 161 |
| CFO LTM | 263 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 200 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.9 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 15.0 |
| P/E | 22.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -26.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -96.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Performance Suite | 1,215 | 809 | |||
| Specialty Technology and Services Suite | 296 | 52 | |||
| Administrative Services | 296 | 408 | |||
| Cases | 157 | 84 | |||
| Clinical Solutions | 598 | 542 | |||
| Evolent Health Services | 312 | 385 | |||
| Intersegment Eliminations | -2 | -3 | -13 | ||
| Services | 687 | ||||
| True Health | 173 | ||||
| Total | 1,964 | 1,352 | 908 | 925 | 846 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Springstubb Brendan B | 11192025 | Buy | 3.82 | 10,000 | 38,199 | 224,690 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |