Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $5.27 | Market Cap: $899.4 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Diversified REITs
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $5.27Market Cap: $899.4 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Diversified REITs
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, FCF Yield is 26% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include ESG REITs, Green Building Certification, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253% Key risksESRT key risks include [1] heavy portfolio concentration in Manhattan with significant financial dependence on the Empire State Building, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, FCF Yield is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include ESG REITs, Green Building Certification, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253% |
| Key risksESRT key risks include [1] heavy portfolio concentration in Manhattan with significant financial dependence on the Empire State Building, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) stock has lost about 10% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Shifting Interest Rate Expectations and Inflationary Pressures. The market rapidly recalibrated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, moving from anticipating multiple cuts at the beginning of 2026 to entirely pricing them out by the end of Q1, with discussions of potential rate hikes emerging. This shift was largely fueled by persistent inflation concerns and a surge in oil prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran war, which began in late February. Rising interest rates generally increase borrowing costs for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and can depress property valuations. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, a benchmark for borrowing costs, rose 12 basis points during Q1, closing at 4.30%.
2. Underperformance in Net Income and a Key Asset (Observatory) During Q1 2026. Empire State Realty Trust reported a substantial year-over-year decline in net income to $0.01 per share for the first quarter of 2026, a notable decrease from $0.055 per share in Q1 2025. Furthermore, the Empire State Building Observatory, a significant revenue-generating asset for the company, experienced a decline in Net Operating Income (NOI) by approximately $3.5 million year-over-year, reaching $10.6 million in the seasonally weaker first quarter. This decline was primarily attributed to a shift in gift shop license revenue expected to be weighted more heavily towards the fourth quarter of 2026. While Core Funds From Operations (FFO) met expectations at $0.20 per share, these specific financial underperformances likely contributed to negative investor sentiment.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.8% change in ESRT stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.84 | 5.27 | -9.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 766 | 777 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.3 | 22.7 | -10.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 171 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -9.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 28.4% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 2.6% | 29.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -24.2% change in ESRT stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.95 | 5.27 | -24.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 766 | 777 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.1 | 22.7 | -24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 169 | 171 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -24.2% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 23.1% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 9.2% | 31.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.8% change in ESRT stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -29.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.51 | 5.27 | -29.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 762 | 777 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 5.1% | -29.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.7 | 22.7 | -0.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 167 | 171 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -29.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 28.7% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 10.8% | 37.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.1% change in ESRT stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.86 | 5.27 | -10.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 709 | 777 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 5.1% | -38.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.2 | 22.7 | 40.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 161 | 171 | -5.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -10.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 41.8% |
| Sector (XLRE) | 37.5% | 56.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ESRT Return | -4% | -23% | 46% | 8% | -36% | -19% | -39% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -45% | 33% | 41% | -18% | 1% | 5% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ESRT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 64% | 33% | 53% | 67% | 36% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ESRT Max Drawdown | -33% | -36% | -36% | -13% | -36% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -54% | -49% | -20% | -29% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SLG, VNO, BXP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ESRT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Empire State Realty Trust's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ESRT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -31.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Empire State Realty Trust's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- It's like Simon Property Group (a major mall owner) for prime office and retail properties in the New York City metropolitan area, including the Empire State Building.
- It's like Disney for Manhattan skyscrapers — they own a portfolio of high-profile buildings, including the iconic Empire State Building, and generate income from them.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Office Space Leasing: Providing office properties for rent to businesses and organizations.
- Retail Space Leasing: Providing retail properties for rent to various commercial tenants.
- Observation Deck Operations: Operating and managing the Empire State Building's observation deck as a major tourist attraction.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) primarily serves other companies by leasing office and retail space across its portfolio. As a diversified real estate investment trust (REIT), ESRT typically has a broad tenant base, and specific major customer companies representing a disproportionate share of total revenue are generally not disclosed. However, based on publicly available information regarding their largest tenants by square footage, key customers include:
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), parent company of LinkedIn Corporation
- The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (HAIN)
- Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), parent company of ADP, LLC
- Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)
In addition to these corporate tenants, ESRT also serves a significant number of individual customers. These are visitors to the Empire State Building Observatory, a major tourist attraction and a notable source of revenue for the company, as highlighted by its description as the "World's Most Famous Building."
AI Analysis | Feedback
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (ED)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Anthony E. Malkin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Anthony E. Malkin has served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. since 2013, having joined its predecessor entities in 1989. He is recognized as a leader in energy efficiency retrofits for existing buildings, including a groundbreaking project at the Empire State Building, and led the development of the Tenant Energy Optimization Program at the Urban Land Institute for energy-efficient office tenant installations. Mr. Malkin’s family has a long history in real estate, with his father, Peter L. Malkin, being instrumental in acquiring the Empire State Building in 1962, and the REIT itself was formed from a consolidation of properties with syndicated ownerships created by his grandfather, father, and himself. Earlier in his career, he joined Chemical Venture Partners, L.P. in 1985. He is a cum laude graduate of Harvard College.
Christina Chiu, President
Christina Chiu is the President of Empire State Realty Trust, a position she was appointed to on February 20, 2024. Prior to this, she served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer since May 2020 when she joined ESRT, and later took on the additional role of Chief Operating Officer in December 2022. Before joining ESRT, Ms. Chiu had an 18-year career at Morgan Stanley, where she was a Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer of the Global Listed Real Assets Investing business, overseeing business development, capital raising, investor relationships, and strategic initiatives. She began her career as a real estate investment banking analyst, working on both principal investing and strategic advisory transactions. Ms. Chiu earned a B.S. in Finance and Accounting summa cum laude from NYU Stern School of Business.
Steve Horn, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Steve Horn serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Accounting Officer for Empire State Realty Trust, a role he was promoted to on February 20, 2024. He joined ESRT in 2020 as Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and was promoted to Chief Accounting Officer in February 2021. Mr. Horn is responsible for the company's finance, accounting, financial reporting, tax, and treasury management. Before his tenure at ESRT, he spent over a decade as an auditor with Ernst & Young LLP, including an international capital markets rotation in London, and was an Audit Senior Manager in their New York office from 2017 to 2020. He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting and a Master of Science in Accounting from Michigan State University.
Thomas P. Durels, Executive Vice President, Real Estate
Thomas P. Durels is the Executive Vice President, Real Estate, responsible for all of Empire State Realty Trust's real estate activities, including leasing, property redevelopment, management, and construction. He joined ESRT's predecessor in 1990, where he also oversaw property acquisitions and was involved in over $1.1 billion in acquisitions and structured equity investments. From 1984 to 1990, Mr. Durels was an Assistant Vice President at Helmsley Spear, Inc., with responsibilities in construction and engineering for their portfolio of office, hotel, residential, and retail properties. He holds a bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from Lehigh University and is a licensed real estate broker in New York and Connecticut.
Ryan Kass, Executive Vice President, Co-Head and Chief Revenue Officer of Real Estate
Ryan Kass serves as Executive Vice President, Co-Head and Chief Revenue Officer of Real Estate for Empire State Realty Trust, where he oversees the company's leasing department. He joined Empire State Realty Trust in November 2013 and has been instrumental in leading the team through over 10 million square feet in transaction volume. Before joining ESRT, Mr. Kass spent ten years as a Senior Managing Director at Newmark, specializing in both landlord and tenant representation for the acquisition and disposition of office space. He is a member of the Real Estate Board of New York and the Cornell Hotel Society.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Business Risks for Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT)
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from its concentrated portfolio in the New York metropolitan area and the evolving dynamics of commercial real estate. These risks are presented in order from most to least significant:
- Impact of Remote/Hybrid Work and Soft Manhattan Office Market: The widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work models continues to significantly challenge the demand for office space in New York City, which forms the core of ESRT's portfolio. Despite ESRT reporting high occupancy rates and a "flight-to-quality" strategy, the broader office REIT sector is struggling, with a projected decline in Funds From Operations (FFO) growth. The long-term shift in work patterns and depressed asking rents in the overall Manhattan office market, despite some recovery, directly impact ESRT's ability to maintain or increase rental income and property valuations.
- Concentration Risk in New York City and Reliance on the Empire State Building Observatory: ESRT's business is almost entirely concentrated in New York City, making it highly vulnerable to regional economic downturns, specific market conditions, or regulatory changes within this single geographic area. Furthermore, a significant portion of its revenue is tied to the Empire State Building, particularly its Observatory, which is highly dependent on tourism. Any sustained dip in tourism or operational issues at this key asset could have a disproportionate impact on the company's overall financial performance, as evidenced by cautious revisions to the Observatory's Net Operating Income (NOI) guidance due to ongoing pressure on discretionary travel.
- Elevated Debt Costs and Liquidity Challenges: While ESRT has stated it maintains a well-laddered debt maturity schedule and relatively low leverage compared to industry averages, the broader commercial real estate market is facing elevated debt costs and liquidity challenges. This environment, characterized by higher borrowing costs and potentially limited refinancing options for maturing debt across the sector, could impact ESRT's ability to finance new acquisitions, make capital improvements, or refinance existing debt on favorable terms, potentially affecting its growth and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The widespread adoption of remote and hybrid work models, which significantly reduces demand for traditional office space.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) operates within the significant office and retail real estate markets of Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area.
Office Market
The addressable market for office properties in New York City, which includes the five boroughs and extends to the greater metropolitan area, is substantial. The total office space across New York City's five boroughs is estimated to be nearly 730 million square feet as of May 2024. Another estimate places the total at 722 million square feet, representing 8.5% of the nation's office space, with an estimated market value of approximately $472 billion as of November 2025. Manhattan alone accounts for the vast majority of this market, comprising about 82% or roughly 600 million square feet of New York City's office space. In terms of total asset values, Manhattan represents approximately 87% of the city's office market. More specifically, the Manhattan office market encompassed around 490 million square feet of space in 2026.
Retail Market
The addressable market for retail properties in New York City is also considerable. The citywide retail space is approximately 264 million square feet. Manhattan holds a significant portion of this market, with total retail space for lease listed at 7.75 million square feet, though this likely refers to available space rather than total inventory. The sales volume for retail real estate in Manhattan reached $2.7 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) is positioned for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, driven by several key strategic initiatives and market dynamics:
-
Increasing Occupancy and Positive Leasing Spreads in the Manhattan Office and Retail Portfolio: ESRT has demonstrated consistent positive mark-to-market lease spreads in its Manhattan office portfolio, with 18 consecutive quarters as of Q4 2025, and signed over 1 million square feet of leases in 2025. The company anticipates commercial occupancy to reach 90% to 92% by year-end 2026, up from 90.3% at year-end 2025. This growth is fueled by a "flight to quality" trend, where tenants are attracted to ESRT's modernized, amenitized, energy-efficient properties in prime New York City locations, leading to higher revenue from cash rent commencement and managing lease expirations.
-
Sustained Performance and Growth of the Empire State Building Observatory: The Empire State Building Observatory consistently contributes significant Net Operating Income (NOI), generating $90.1 million in 2025. The Observatory, recognized as the number one attraction in the U.S. by TripAdvisor for two consecutive years, saw revenue per capita increase by 6.9% year-over-year in Q4 2025. Management expects 2026 NOI for the Observatory to be approximately $87 million to $92 million, with potential additional benefits from major events such as the 2026 World Cup.
-
Strategic Portfolio Transformation and Acquisitions: ESRT is actively executing a capital recycling strategy by acquiring high-quality assets in Manhattan and divesting suburban commercial properties, transitioning to a 100% New York City-focused portfolio. Recent acquisitions, such as 130 Mercer Street in SoHo for $386 million in Q4 2025, are intended to enhance the portfolio's growth profile and cash flow potential. This strategic reallocation aims to maximize cash flow and total returns to shareholders.
-
Revenue Upside from Below-Market Lease Rollovers and Rent Commencement: The company benefits from a pipeline of signed leases not yet commenced and the opportunity to renew existing leases that are currently at below-market rates. As these leases expire, ESRT can re-lease the space at higher, market-rate rents, contributing to future revenue growth. In 2023, new office lease spreads averaged 14%, surpassing the prior three-year average.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Empire State Realty Trust authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program for Class A common stock and operating partnership units for the period from January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2027. This replaced a prior $500 million authorization that ran from January 1, 2024, through December 31, 2025.
- The company repurchased $8.1 million of common stock in the full year 2025.
- Approximately $296 million has been repurchased under the stock repurchase program that commenced in March 2020, through July 22, 2025.
Share Issuance
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, ESRT issued $175 million of senior unsecured notes in a private placement transaction.
- In April 2024, Empire State Realty Trust issued $225 million aggregate principal amount of green senior unsecured notes in a private placement.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, ESRT completed $417 million in all-cash acquisitions of high-quality office and retail assets, including the $386.0 million purchase of 130 Mercer Street (the Scholastic Building) in SoHo and a $31.0 million retail asset in Williamsburg, Brooklyn.
- Since December 2021, the company has acquired three multifamily properties in Manhattan and prime retail assets on North 6th Street in Williamsburg.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, ESRT disposed of its last suburban office asset, Metro Center in Stamford, Connecticut, and repaid $71.6 million in related mortgage debt, completing its repositioning to an all-New York City commercial portfolio.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to remain below $150 million for 2026.
- A decrease in second-generation capital expenditures is anticipated in 2025 compared to 2024.
- ESRT actively manages its properties, implementing preventive maintenance and capital improvement programs to enhance existing assets.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| Rev LTM | 1,381 |
| Op Inc LTM | 190 |
| FCF LTM | 713 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 521 |
| CFO LTM | 713 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 521 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -10.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 32.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 32.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.8 |
| P/EBIT | 7.5 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 6.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 74.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 12.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 714 | 689 | 686 | 606 | 598 |
| Observatory | 136 | 129 | 106 | 42 | 29 |
| Third-party management and other fees | 1 | 1 | |||
| Intersegment Elimination | -83 | -81 | -65 | -23 | -18 |
| Total | 768 | 740 | 727 | 624 | 609 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 4,243 | 3,958 | 3,909 | 4,037 | 3,904 |
| Observatory | 267 | 262 | 254 | 245 | 247 |
| Intersegment Elimination | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 4,510 | 4,219 | 4,164 | 4,282 | 4,151 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $5.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/02/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -38.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.44 | $6.43 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -3.2% | -18.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.4% | 32.6% |
| Downside Capture | 53.35 | 96.81 |
| Upside Capture | 19.21 | 17.58 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.41 | 0.56 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Up Beta | 3.45 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 1.15 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 3.71 | 2.50 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 1.08 | 0.99 |
| Up Capture | 36% | 43% | 21% | 4% | 21% | 48% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 30 | 58 | 124 | 361 |
| Down Capture | 3% | -16% | 50% | 69% | 91% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 15 | 29 | 62 | 117 | 366 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESRT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -32.4% | 32.7% | -1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 10.8% | 13.6% | 0.51 | 37.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.3% | 12.1% | 1.57 | 28.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.6% | 26.9% | 0.88 | -7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 36.9% | 19.0% | 1.52 | -8.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.63 | 44.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.5% | -1.16 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESRT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -13.5% | 34.6% | -0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 4.0% | 19.1% | 0.11 | 55.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 47.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.1% | 0.78 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.4% | 0.38 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 60.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.3% | 54.6% | 0.40 | 16.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ESRT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESRT | -10.2% | 35.9% | -0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLRE) | 7.1% | 20.4% | 0.30 | 59.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 49.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | -0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 19.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 64.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.9% | 1.03 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -0.9% | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| 2/17/2026 | -2.7% | -7.0% | -19.3% |
| 10/29/2025 | -6.0% | -4.3% | -7.5% |
| 7/23/2025 | -7.1% | -7.8% | -8.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.3% | 5.5% | 12.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | -2.9% | -0.3% | -8.6% |
| 10/21/2024 | -0.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% |
| 7/24/2024 | -1.2% | 0.9% | -5.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 3.5% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -3.7% | -6.5% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 18.7% | 77.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.1% | -12.1% | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 10/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Core FFO Per Fully Diluted Share | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.87 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Commercial Occupancy at year-end | 0.9 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.91 for 2026 | |
| 2026 SS Property Cash NOI (excluding lease termination fees) | -0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Observatory NOI | 87.00 Mil | 89.50 Mil | 92.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 89.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Core FFO Per Fully Diluted Share | 0.85 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.84 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Commercial Occupancy at year-end | 0.9 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 1.1% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.9 for 2025 |
| 2026 SS Property Cash NOI (excluding lease termination fees) | -0.01 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: -0 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Observatory NOI | 87.00 Mil | 89.50 Mil | 92.00 Mil | -2.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 92.00 Mil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.