Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $2.77 | Market Cap: $556.0 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $2.77Market Cap: $556.0 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -134% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.7% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 226% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -134% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.7% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 226% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -31% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -23% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ESPR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the movement in Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) stock from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:
1. Patent Litigation Settlements
Esperion secured settlements with Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and three other generic drug filers, preventing generic versions of its key products, NEXLETOL and NEXLIZET, from entering the U.S. market until at least April 2040. This significantly de-risks future revenue streams and solidifies market exclusivity for its cholesterol-lowering medications.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results
On November 6, 2025, Esperion reported mixed financial results for Q3 2025. The company's revenue surged 69% year-over-year to $87.3 million, exceeding analysts' expectations. However, its GAAP EPS of -$0.16 missed consensus estimates. Esperion reiterated its 2025 operating expense guidance and anticipates achieving sustainable profitability by early 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ESPR Return | -56% | -81% | 25% | -52% | -26% | 28% | -95% |
| Peers Return | -10% | -6% | -26% | -27% | -27% | 1964% | 585% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ESPR Win Rate | 33% | 25% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 30% | 22% | 23% | 32% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ESPR Max Drawdown | -59% | -82% | -33% | -88% | -46% | -67% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -13% | -31% | -34% | -35% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BGM, NSRX, RGC, RHHBY, SXTC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ESPR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -98.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4950.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
Compare to BGM, NSRX, RGC, RHHBY, SXTC
In The Past
Esperion Therapeutics's stock fell -98.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -98.0% loss requires a 4950.7% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How Low Can Esperion Therapeutics Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ESPR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -11.9% | -11.9% | -11.9% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.3% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -31.5% | -31.5% | -31.5% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.6% | -1.6% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.6% | 15.6% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Esperion Therapeutics
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| Rev LTM | 304 |
| Op Inc LTM | -29 |
| FCF LTM | -93 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -87 |
| CFO LTM | -93 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -87 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 77.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 69.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -51.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -30.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -58.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -30.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -58.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.6 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | -20.6 |
| P/E | -5.3 |
| P/CFO | -6.1 |
| Total Yield | -18.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -51.4% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -15.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -90.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -15.0% | 3.1% | |
| 8/5/2025 | 8.7% | 23.8% | 63.1% |
| 5/6/2025 | -7.1% | -23.9% | 6.7% |
| 1/16/2025 | 2.3% | -5.9% | -15.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.5% | 0.9% | 57.5% |
| 8/12/2024 | -8.9% | -3.0% | -14.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 11.8% | 5.2% | 9.9% |
| 2/27/2024 | 10.3% | -7.2% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.6% | -6.7% | -15.1% |
| Max Positive | 14.0% | 25.9% | 63.1% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -23.9% | -74.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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