Coterra Energy (CTRA)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $32.15 | Market Cap: $24.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Coterra Energy (CTRA)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $32.15Market Cap: $24.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.8%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 6.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 53%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 4.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence. Themes include US LNG, and US Oilfield Technologies. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.8% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Announced Merger with Devon Energy Creates Enhanced Value.
Coterra Energy's stock experienced a significant boost following the announcement on February 2, 2026, of an all-stock merger with Devon Energy. This strategic combination is projected to unlock substantial value, with an expected $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies, creating a leading large-cap shale operator. Coterra shareholders are set to receive 0.70 shares of Devon common stock for each Coterra share, owning approximately 46% of the combined entity upon the merger's expected close in the second quarter of 2026.
2. Strong Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Optimistic 2026 Guidance.
The company reported robust fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 26, 2026. For Q4 2025, Coterra reported revenues of $1.96 billion, surpassing estimates by approximately 2.4%, and diluted earnings per share of $0.51, beating estimates by about 3.9%. Coterra also exceeded the high-end of its guidance for total barrels of oil equivalent and natural gas production for the quarter. Looking ahead, Coterra provided a strong outlook for 2026, projecting approximately $2.35 billion in non-GAAP Free Cash Flow.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.7% change in CTRA stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.65 | 32.15 | 20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,081 | 7,645 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.2% | 22.5% | -3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.4 | 14.2 | 15.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 763 | 761 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | -12.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 27.6% | 71.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.6% change in CTRA stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.06 | 32.15 | 33.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,623 | 7,645 | 15.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.8% | 22.5% | -5.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.6 | 14.2 | 22.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 763 | 761 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 33.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | -0.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 28.8% | 68.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.2% change in CTRA stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.89 | 32.15 | 24.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,458 | 7,645 | 40.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 22.5% | 9.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.1 | 14.2 | -16.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 739 | 761 | -2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 24.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLE) | 29.9% | 71.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 45.1% change in CTRA stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 234.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.15 | 32.15 | 45.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,051 | 7,645 | -15.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.9% | 22.5% | -50.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.3 | 14.2 | 234.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 781 | 761 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 45.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 45.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 35.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 51.3% | 73.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CTRA Return | 23% | 41% | 9% | 3% | 7% | 20% | 151% |
| Peers Return | 149% | 57% | -2% | 15% | 4% | 21% | 449% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CTRA Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 63% | 48% | 50% | 55% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CTRA Max Drawdown | -10% | 0% | -6% | -9% | -11% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -0% | -3% | -21% | -15% | -11% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EOG, DVN, EQT, AR, RRC. See CTRA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CTRA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 867 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 292.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 871 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to EOG, DVN, EQT, AR, RRC
In The Past
Coterra Energy's stock fell -36.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -36.3% loss requires a 57.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Coterra Energy (CTRA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. A pure-play U.S. oil and natural gas producer, similar to EOG Resources or ConocoPhillips.
2. Like a ConocoPhillips, but specifically focused on extracting oil and gas from major U.S. shale basins such as the Marcellus and Permian.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Oil: Coterra Energy explores, develops, and produces crude oil from its properties in the United States.
- Natural Gas: The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, which it sells to a wide range of customers.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Coterra Energy is involved in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas liquids.
- Natural Gas Gathering Systems: The company operates systems for collecting and transporting natural gas, primarily in Texas.
- Saltwater Disposal Gathering Systems: Coterra Energy operates infrastructure for gathering and disposing of saltwater, primarily in Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Coterra Energy (CTRA) - Major Customers
Coterra Energy primarily sells its products to other companies. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:- Industrial customers
- Local distribution companies
- Oil and gas marketers
- Major energy companies
- Pipeline companies
- Power generation facilities
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation and industrial processes, which directly threatens the long-term demand for oil and natural gas, Coterra's primary products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
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nullLatest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CTRA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 82.3% | 82.3% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 23.6% | 23.6% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 56.9% | 56.9% | -7.0% |
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 44.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,999 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,731 |
| FCF LTM | 2,216 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,460 |
| CFO LTM | 4,573 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,601 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 24.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 41.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 44.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 15.0 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 25.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $32.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 24.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/08/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $28.75 | $25.49 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 11.8% | 26.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.0% | 31.1% |
| Downside Capture | -132.92 | 20.03 |
| Upside Capture | -21.35 | 38.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -15.1% | 38.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.28 | -0.45 | -0.40 | -0.00 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Up Beta | 0.33 | -0.17 | -0.18 | 0.52 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Down Beta | 3.01 | 0.91 | 0.42 | 0.61 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Up Capture | -80% | -45% | -35% | -2% | 28% | 21% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 26 | 37 | 68 | 139 | 398 |
| Down Capture | -224% | -218% | -151% | -103% | 33% | 74% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 15 | 23 | 53 | 109 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 23.2% | 31.0% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 34.9% | 24.9% | 1.15 | 71.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 38.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 48.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 38.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 10.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 17.0% | 34.2% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.1% | 26.2% | 0.73 | 72.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 33.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 8.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 47.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 10.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CTRA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTRA | 7.6% | 35.5% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.9% | 29.5% | 0.41 | 55.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 36.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 36.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 5.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/21/2026 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 16.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.1% | 0.3% | 11.4% |
| 7/21/2025 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2/25/2025 | -1.9% | -3.3% | 6.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.1% | 2.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -5.1% | -5.6% | -3.4% |
| 2/23/2024 | -0.2% | -0.1% | 7.9% |
| 11/7/2023 | -2.1% | -0.9% | -9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 3.8% | 7.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -1.4% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 3.9% | 14.7% | 32.9% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -7.6% | -11.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bell, Stephen P | EVP - Business Development | Direct | Sell | 5222025 | 25.26 | 100,000 | 2,525,800 | 5,800,550 | Form |
| 2 | Bell, Stephen P | EVP - Business Development | Direct | Sell | 5092025 | 23.00 | 115,385 | 2,653,855 | 7,581,996 | Form |
| 3 | Smith, Kevin William | SVP & Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 3212025 | 29.09 | 25,733 | 748,444 | 3,086,326 | Form |
| 4 | Vela, Adam M | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3182025 | 28.77 | 8,000 | 230,120 | 2,905,495 | Form |
| 5 | Sirgo, Blake A | SVP - Operations | Direct | Sell | 3182025 | 28.13 | 90,000 | 2,531,880 | 3,347,511 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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