Clearfield (CLFD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.22 | Market Cap: $390.4 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Clearfield (CLFD)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.22Market Cap: $390.4 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.9% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.47 | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 398x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 3003x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, and Network Equipment. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Telecom Infrastructure, and Network Equipment. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.47 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.2 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 398x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 3003x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CLFD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Clearfield's (CLFD) stock movement was significantly influenced by several factors, primarily related to its fiscal fourth quarter 2025 earnings report and forward-looking guidance.
1. Clearfield reported a significant revenue miss for its fiscal fourth quarter 2025. The company's reported revenues of $41.1 million for the quarter ended September 2025 fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $49.55 million by 16.89%, leading to a "decisively negative" market reaction despite an earnings per share beat.
2. The company provided a soft outlook for Q1 fiscal year 2026. Clearfield issued guidance for Q1 2026 anticipating net sales between $30 million and $33 million and a net loss per share ranging from 8 cents to breakeven, suggesting a slow start to the fiscal year.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CLFD Return | 77% | 242% | 12% | -69% | 7% | -9% | 103% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 41% | -13% | 6% | 11% | 68% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CLFD Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 58% | 25% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 42% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CLFD Max Drawdown | -35% | -2% | -44% | -76% | -14% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -3% | -24% | -27% | -26% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CLFD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 472.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 627 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 1480 days |
Compare to VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET
In The Past
Clearfield's stock fell -82.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/30/2022. A -82.5% loss requires a 472.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CLFD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Clearfield
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.29 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,800 |
| Op Inc LTM | -3 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7 |
| CFO LTM | 553 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 388 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -3.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 27.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 0.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 10-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11292023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2072023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11232022 | 10-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11102021 | 10-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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