Tearsheet

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.345 | Market Cap: $3.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $15.345
Market Cap: $3.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Casinos & Gaming

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 32%, Dividend Yield is 23%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Markets & Betting, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Prediction Markets, and Digital Payments.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 32%, Dividend Yield is 23%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 28%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Markets & Betting, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Prediction Markets, and Digital Payments.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -74%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79%
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BRSL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) experienced a stock movement of approximately -6.5% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily influenced by a few key factors. The stock's performance around its third-quarter 2025 earnings release in early November appears to be a significant driver of this decline.

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: Brightstar Lottery reported its third-quarter 2025 results on November 4, 2025, which were met with a mixed reaction. While the company's adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations of $0.36 substantially exceeded analyst estimates of $0.22 to $0.2374, its reported revenue of $629 million slightly missed the consensus forecasts of approximately $630.63 million to $647.1 million. This mixed performance, particularly the revenue shortfall, contributed to investor caution.

2. Negative Impact of UK Contract Transition: During the third quarter of 2025, the transition of the UK contract negatively impacted Brightstar Lottery's revenue and Adjusted EBITDA by approximately $6 million. The company also anticipated further headwinds from this transition in the fourth quarter, signaling ongoing financial pressure.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BRSL Return17%72%-19%25%-33%10%49%
Peers Return23%54%-7%3%3%5%98%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BRSL Win Rate58%58%33%67%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%50%40%48%53%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BRSL Max Drawdown-74%-9%-46%-1%-35%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-15%-32%-16%-18%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CHDN, BYD, MCRI, FLL, LVS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBRSLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-52.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven110.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven291 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-75.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven302.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven267 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-62.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven169.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven809 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven582.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to CHDN, BYD, MCRI, FLL, LVS


In The Past

Brightstar Lottery's stock fell -52.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/9/2021. A -52.5% loss requires a 110.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)

Better Bets than Brightstar Lottery (BRSL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BRSL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Brightstar Lottery

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BRSLCHDNBYDMCRIFLLLVSMedian
NameBrightst.Churchil.Boyd Gam.Monarch .Full Hou.Las Vega. 
Mkt Price15.35111.6182.5596.002.7866.8874.72
Mkt Cap3.07.86.71.80.145.64.8
Rev LTM2,4942,8844,07154030012,2642,689
Op Inc LTM65872594110232,817692
FCF LTM110265412122-61,215194
FCF 3Y Avg537124504113-931,389314
CFO LTM394804963164132,734599
CFO 3Y Avg812722940158132,715767

Growth & Margins

BRSLCHDNBYDMCRIFLLLVSMedian
NameBrightst.Churchil.Boyd Gam.Monarch .Full Hou.Las Vega. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.8%8.0%5.9%4.6%7.4%8.4%6.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.1%20.2%5.0%4.8%21.1%51.6%12.6%
Rev Chg Q7.3%8.7%4.5%3.6%3.0%24.2%5.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%1.9%1.1%0.9%0.8%5.6%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM26.4%25.1%23.1%19.0%1.0%23.0%23.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg29.9%25.0%25.1%21.3%3.4%21.0%23.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.9%0.2%-0.6%0.4%1.0%1.1%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM15.8%27.9%23.7%30.5%4.3%22.3%23.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.0%27.2%24.3%30.6%4.7%25.4%26.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.4%9.2%10.1%22.7%-2.2%9.9%9.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg22.3%4.3%13.1%21.9%-40.7%13.0%13.0%

Valuation

BRSLCHDNBYDMCRIFLLLVSMedian
NameBrightst.Churchil.Boyd Gam.Monarch .Full Hou.Las Vega. 
Mkt Cap3.07.86.71.80.145.64.8
P/S1.32.41.73.60.43.02.0
P/EBIT5.98.22.718.9-2,069.912.87.0
P/E11.116.93.723.4-2.923.614.0
P/CFO8.58.57.311.89.113.48.8
Total Yield31.9%5.9%27.0%5.4%-34.6%6.4%6.2%
Dividend Yield22.8%0.0%0.2%1.1%0.0%2.2%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.5%1.6%8.0%7.7%-61.5%3.8%5.8%
D/E1.30.80.40.04.60.40.6
Net D/E0.80.70.3-0.04.30.30.5

Returns

BRSLCHDNBYDMCRIFLLLVSMedian
NameBrightst.Churchil.Boyd Gam.Monarch .Full Hou.Las Vega. 
1M Rtn-6.0%13.2%3.9%6.8%13.5%8.3%7.6%
3M Rtn-4.5%9.9%-3.1%-5.8%-21.7%21.3%-3.8%
6M Rtn29.8%16.3%12.5%15.3%-11.5%63.2%15.8%
12M Rtn-2.8%-20.2%12.6%13.5%-38.5%26.7%4.9%
3Y Rtn-18.2%0.8%42.3%28.8%-62.4%46.0%14.8%
1M Excs Rtn-6.0%13.2%3.9%6.8%13.5%8.4%7.6%
3M Excs Rtn-12.3%4.1%-9.7%-12.5%-24.3%16.5%-11.0%
6M Excs Rtn15.1%1.6%-2.2%0.6%-26.2%48.5%1.1%
12M Excs Rtn-12.8%-34.8%-0.7%2.2%-54.7%15.2%-6.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-86.3%-71.0%-29.4%-42.5%-134.7%-12.3%-56.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Operating and facilities management contracts, gross2,494    
Product sales171    
Systems, software, and other54    
Upfront license fee amortization-189    
Corporate and Other 0   
Global Gaming 1,4231,1128371,739
Global Lottery 2,5932,8122,1642,293
PlayDigital 209165115 
Total2,5304,2254,0893,1164,032


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,328,416
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.3%
Average Daily Volume1,802,520
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.96
Basic Shares Quantity195,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025110420256-K 9/30/2025
630202572920256-K 6/30/2025
331202551320256-K 3/31/2025
12312024225202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024111220246-K 9/30/2024
630202473020246-K 6/30/2024
331202451420246-K 3/31/2024
12312023312202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023103120236-K 9/30/2023
630202380120236-K 6/30/2023
331202350920236-K 3/31/2023
12312022228202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110820226-K 9/30/2022
630202280220226-K 6/30/2022
331202251020226-K 3/31/2022
12312021303202220-F 12/31/2021