Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (8/25/2026): $2.82 | Market Cap: $369.5 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (8/25/2026): $2.82Market Cap: $369.5 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 68% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 82% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -143% Key risksBMBL key risks include [1] a significant decline in paying users and revenue and [2] indicators of financial distress, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 68% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 82% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -143% |
| Key risksBMBL key risks include [1] a significant decline in paying users and revenue and [2] indicators of financial distress, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Bumble (BMBL) stock has lost about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Bumble reported a significant earnings miss in fiscal Q2 2026 and provided a weaker outlook for fiscal Q3 2026. The company posted a GAAP loss per share of -$0.84 in fiscal Q2 2026, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.25. Additionally, total revenue for the quarter declined by 15.2% year-over-year to $210.5 million. Management further projected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance between $205 million and $213 million, below analyst estimates of $214.1 million to $214.49 million, and anticipated lower adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 28% for Q3, down from 34.6% in Q2. This combination of underperformance and reduced expectations signaled ongoing operational challenges.
2. The company experienced a notable decline in its paying user base. In fiscal Q2 2026, Bumble's total paying users decreased by 16.4% year-over-year, falling to 3.2 million from 3.8 million in the prior year. The Bumble App specifically saw a 16.9% decrease in paying users, indicating a significant challenge in attracting and retaining its core customer base. This trend directly impacts revenue and raises concerns about future growth trajectory.
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Bumble (BMBL) stock has lost about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Bumble reported a significant earnings miss in fiscal Q2 2026 and provided a weaker outlook for fiscal Q3 2026. The company posted a GAAP loss per share of -$0.84 in fiscal Q2 2026, substantially missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.25. Additionally, total revenue for the quarter declined by 15.2% year-over-year to $210.5 million. Management further projected fiscal Q3 2026 revenue guidance between $205 million and $213 million, below analyst estimates of $214.1 million to $214.49 million, and anticipated lower adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 28% for Q3, down from 34.6% in Q2. This combination of underperformance and reduced expectations signaled ongoing operational challenges.
2. The company experienced a notable decline in its paying user base. In fiscal Q2 2026, Bumble's total paying users decreased by 16.4% year-over-year, falling to 3.2 million from 3.8 million in the prior year. The Bumble App specifically saw a 16.9% decrease in paying users, indicating a significant challenge in attracting and retaining its core customer base. This trend directly impacts revenue and raises concerns about future growth trajectory.
3. Bumble announced a substantial workforce reduction and a significant strategic shift in its core product. In June 2026, the company initiated layoffs affecting approximately 30% of its global workforce, or about 240 employees, as part of a restructuring effort. Furthermore, starting in August 2026, Bumble departed from its foundational "women-first" messaging policy by allowing all users to send an opening message after matching. This move represents a major change to a key brand differentiator and signals uncertainty regarding the company's brand identity and future market positioning.
4. There was substantial insider selling activity during the specified period. Over the 90 days leading up to late August 2026, insiders sold nearly 30 million shares of Bumble stock, totaling approximately $113.18 million. This included significant transactions by Blackstone Holdings III GP Management, L.L.C., a major beneficial owner, which sold shares valued at approximately $22.88 million on June 16, 2026. Stephen Schwarzman, also associated with Blackstone, made multiple sales on the same date, with individual transactions exceeding $9 million and $12 million. This concentrated insider selling indicates a lack of confidence from key stakeholders.
5. Multiple analyst firms downgraded their price targets for Bumble. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and the company's updated guidance, several analysts adjusted their outlook for BMBL. UBS lowered its price target to $3 from $4.50, and RBC Capital Markets reduced its target to $4 from $5. Goldman Sachs also cut its price target for Bumble from $5.00 to $3.50. These downgrades reflect reduced growth expectations and increased caution from the investment community regarding Bumble's near-term prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.3% change in BMBL stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.15 | 2.85 | -31.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 966 | 893 | -7.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.4 | -21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 123 | 131 | -5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -31.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.2% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -3.6% | 36.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -14.9% change in BMBL stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.35 | 2.85 | -14.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,003 | 893 | -11.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.4 | 0.4 | 15.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 131 | -17.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -14.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -14.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.6% | 13.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | -6.2% | 26.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -63.4% change in BMBL stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.78 | 2.85 | -63.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,051 | 893 | -15.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.8 | 0.4 | -46.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 105 | 131 | -19.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -63.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -63.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.8% | 22.8% |
| Sector (XLC) | 5.6% | 29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -84.6% change in BMBL stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.52 | 2.85 | -84.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 936 | 893 | -4.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.6 | 0.4 | -84.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 132 | 131 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -84.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -84.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.7% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLC) | 68.5% | 29.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BMBL Return | -52% | -38% | -30% | -45% | -56% | -22% | -96% |
| Peers Return | -9% | -61% | 38% | 46% | -12% | 22% | -23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BMBL Win Rate | 27% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 33% | 38% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 46% | 54% | 42% | 42% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BMBL Max Drawdown | - | -54% | -54% | -61% | -63% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -79% | -41% | -21% | -39% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MTCH, GRND.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BMBL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Bumble's stock fell -35.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 54.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BMBL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Bumble's stock fell -35.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 54.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Bumble (BMBL)
Bumble Inc. (BMBL) is a global technology company specializing in online dating and social networking platforms. It operates a suite of mobile applications designed to facilitate connections between individuals, primarily for dating purposes. The company generates revenue by offering various subscription plans and in-app purchase options directly within these applications, serving a broad user base across North America, Europe, and other international markets.
The company's core product portfolio includes three distinct online dating apps: Bumble, Badoo, and Fruitz. Bumble is its flagship app, known for empowering women to initiate conversations. Badoo is another prominent international dating app with a substantial user base, and Fruitz provides an additional offering in the market. Together, Bumble and Badoo alone attract approximately 40 million monthly active users, highlighting the company's significant presence and reach in the digital dating landscape.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Bumble (BMBL):
- Like LinkedIn, but for romantic and social connections instead of professional networking.
- The Pepsi to Match Group's Coke in the online dating world.
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- Bumble app: An online dating and social networking platform focused on empowering women to make the first move.
- Badoo app: An online dating and social networking platform with a global reach.
- Fruitz app: An online dating app that helps users express their dating intentions upfront.
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Bumble Inc. (BMBL) sells its products and services primarily to individuals.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Individuals seeking romantic relationships: This is the core customer base across its dating apps (Bumble, Badoo, and Fruitz), who use the platforms to find dates and form romantic connections.
- Individuals seeking platonic friendships: Customers who utilize Bumble's "BFF" (Best Friends Forever) mode specifically to meet new people and form non-romantic friendships.
- Individuals seeking professional networking: Users who engage with Bumble's "Bizz" mode to expand their professional network, find mentors, or explore career opportunities.
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- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
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Whitney Wolfe Herd, Chief Executive Officer
Whitney Wolfe Herd is the founder, executive chair, and CEO of Bumble. She co-founded the rival dating app Tinder and previously served as its Vice President of Marketing. In 2014, she founded Bumble, and in November 2019, after Andrey Andreev sold a majority stake in Bumble Inc. to The Blackstone Group, she received an ownership stake of approximately 19% and was named CEO. Bumble Inc. became a public company through an initial public offering in February 2021. Wolfe Herd transitioned from the CEO role in early 2024 and returned as CEO in March 2025.
Kevin D. Cook, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin D. Cook was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Bumble Inc., effective August 12, 2025. He brings over 30 years of financial management experience. Prior to joining Bumble, Cook served as the Chief Financial Officer at Cloudera, Inc., a hybrid cloud data and AI platform company. His career also includes roles as Senior Vice President of Finance, Corporate Development & Investor Relations at Cloudera, and Vice President of Strategic Finance, Corporate and Business Development at Barracuda Networks, Inc. He has also held leadership positions in investment banking at firms such as Cowen, Credit Suisse, Wachovia Securities (now Wells Fargo), and RBC Capital Markets.
Vivek Sagi, Chief Technology Officer
Vivek Sagi joined Bumble as Chief Technology Officer in May 2025. He is an experienced technology executive with deep expertise in engineering, product management, user experience, and emerging technology. Sagi has a history of successfully leading and scaling global product portfolios across the U.S., Asia, and Europe.
Julie Radford, Chief Communications & Corporate Affairs Officer
Julie Radford joined Bumble in April 2025 as Chief Communications & Corporate Affairs Officer. With over 20 years of experience, she has worked across the public, private, and nonprofit sectors, including leading initiatives at the White House, Goldman Sachs Foundation, and as a founding partner at R6 Consulting. Her responsibilities at Bumble encompass global communications, employee engagement, public policy, and external affairs.
Deirdre Runnette, Chief Legal Officer
Deirdre Runnette was appointed Chief Legal Officer of Bumble. She brings more than 25 years of experience in legal, risk, and compliance. Runnette has advised various high-growth technology companies, from late-stage startups to Fortune 500 leaders such as T-Mobile.
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Intense Competition and Shifting User Preferences
Bumble operates in a highly competitive online dating and social networking market, with established rivals like Tinder and Match.com, alongside continuous new entrants. The industry is characterized by rapidly evolving user preferences and "dating app fatigue," which poses a significant threat to Bumble's relevance and market share if it fails to adapt to new trends. This dynamic environment can lead to challenges in retaining existing users, attracting new ones, and converting them into paying subscribers, as evidenced by reported declines in Bumble's paying user base. Maintaining engagement and market position requires continuous innovation and significant marketing investment.
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User Safety, Data Security, and Fraud Risks
As an online platform dealing with personal connections, Bumble faces substantial risks related to user safety, data security, and privacy. The threat of data breaches, cyberattacks, and the proliferation of AI-driven scams and deepfakes can severely erode user trust and damage the company's reputation. Such incidents could also lead to significant legal liabilities and increased operational costs associated with enhancing security measures, robust verification systems, and fraud detection technologies. User concerns about harassment and fake profiles also persist, potentially affecting user satisfaction.
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Financial Vulnerabilities, Profitability, and Debt Levels
Bumble has faced profitability challenges, reporting negative net income in the past and experiencing a decline in revenue in recent quarters. The company's financial health indicators, such as the Altman Z-Score, have at times placed it in a "distress zone," signaling potential financial vulnerabilities. While liquidity appears strong in some aspects, there are concerns regarding debt levels, with liabilities potentially outweighing cash and near-term receivables. High debt levels may necessitate refinancing and could impact the company's financial flexibility and valuation.
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The addressable market for Bumble Inc.'s main products and services, primarily online dating and social networking platforms, spans globally and across key regions like North America and Europe.
The global online dating market was valued at approximately USD 10.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 19.33 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.27% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates place the global market size at USD 10.54 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to USD 23.35 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2025 to 2035. Another report states the global market was valued at USD 9.07 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 18.61 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 7.48% from 2025 to 2034. The market was also estimated at USD 9.65 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 17.28 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.4% from 2023 to 2030.
In North America, the online dating market is a significant segment. It accounted for approximately 45% of the global share and held a 36.5% share in 2022. The North American online dating market was valued at USD 2.99 billion in 2022. This regional market is expected to grow from USD 2.39 billion in 2026 to USD 3.51 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 7.99%. The United States alone contributed approximately 40% of the North American market share. The U.S. market was valued at $3 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $5 billion by 2025.
The European online dating market is also experiencing substantial growth, representing approximately 30% of the global share. The Europe online dating market was valued at USD 1.17 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.98 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6% from 2026 to 2034. Another source indicates the Europe online dating services market was valued at USD 1.22 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 1.63 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 5.99% during that period. The European dating apps market, specifically, was valued at USD 2.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 4.20 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 7.53% from 2026 to 2034.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Bumble (BMBL) over the next 2-3 years:
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AI-Powered Product Innovation and Platform Modernization (Bumble 2.0): Bumble is focusing on an extensive product overhaul, termed "Bumble 2.0," centered around the introduction of an AI assistant named "Bee" and a new cloud-native tech stack. This initiative aims to move beyond traditional swipe-based matching by facilitating deeper compatibility through conversational insights into users' values, goals, and communication styles. The company is also experimenting with "chapter-based profiles" and potentially removing the swipe mechanism in select markets to combat user fatigue and foster more meaningful connections. These advancements are expected to enhance user experience, drive engagement, improve retention, and differentiate Bumble from competitors.
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Increased Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) through Quality Focus: Bumble has implemented a "quality reset" strategy, deliberately shifting away from high-volume performance marketing to prioritize higher-intent users. While this has led to a near-term decline in total paying users, the strategy is designed to cultivate a more engaged and dedicated user base. This focus on user quality is already contributing to an increase in Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU), as the remaining users are more likely to subscribe to premium features and engage with monetization offerings.
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Targeting Key Demographics and Addressing Dating App Fatigue: The company is specifically addressing widespread dating app fatigue, particularly among younger demographics like Gen Z. By introducing innovative features such as the AI assistant and exploring alternative matching mechanisms, Bumble aims to attract and retain these crucial users who are seeking more authentic and intentional connections. This strategic pivot is intended to re-engage users who may be disillusioned with the current online dating landscape.
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Operational Discipline and Improved Profitability: Bumble's emphasis on financial discipline and cost-saving initiatives has led to improved Adjusted EBITDA margins. While not a direct revenue driver, this enhanced profitability provides the company with greater financial flexibility to strategically invest in core product innovation, AI capabilities, and platform modernization, thereby indirectly supporting long-term revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Bumble increased its share repurchase program authorization from $150.0 million to $300.0 million in November 2023, and further to $450.0 million in May 2024.
- During the year ended December 31, 2024, the company repurchased 25.1 million shares of Class A common stock and 2.0 million Common Units for $214.4 million.
- In 2023, Bumble repurchased 7.8 million shares of Class A common stock and 3.2 million Common Units for $157.1 million.
Share Issuance
- Bumble completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on February 16, 2021.
- Vested Incentive Units can be converted to Common Units and subsequently exchanged for shares of Class A common stock.
Outbound Investments
- Bumble acquired Fruitz in February 2022 to expand its dating app offerings.
- Bumble acquired Geneva in May 2024 to enhance community-building features within Bumble For Friends.
Capital Expenditures
- Bumble reported capital expenditures of -$3.03 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Annual capital expenditures were consistently negative from 2020 to 2024, ranging from -$12 million to -$27 million, indicating a focus on software and digital assets or net proceeds from asset sales rather than significant physical infrastructure investments.
- The company's trailing twelve months (TTM) Capital Expenditure to Operating Cash Flow average over five years stands at 0%.
Peer Outperformance in Interactive Media & Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | Bumble | -2.4% | -0.7x | -55.2% | -82.2% | -94.7% | — |
| CARG | CarGurus | -1.8% | 19.1x | 8.9% | 107.8% | 31.3% | +126pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wireless Telecommunication Services | 3 | -5.8% | 43.2% | 36.5% | ECHO 233% · TMUS 37% · SHEN -57% |
| Publishing | 5 | 26.4% | 1.1% | 34.4% | NWSA 43% · NYT 41% · SCHL 34% |
| Integrated Telecommunication Services | 21 | -8.2% | 16.3% | -13.0% | IQST 1432% · GSAT 297% · AD 149% |
| Movies & Entertainment | 23 | 10.9% | 88.1% | -18.1% | IMAX 252% · MSGS 146% · CNK 129% |
| Alternative Carriers | 4 | 39.3% | 19.1% | -42.8% | IRDM 26% · UNIT -37% · LUMN -49% |
| Advertising | 18 | -6.6% | -7.3% | -55.8% | APP 290% · EVC 56% · OMC 46% |
| Broadcasting | 15 | -6.7% | -23.3% | -63.1% | FOXA 99% · NXST 49% · WBD 0% |
| Interactive Media & Services ← | 31 | -26.6% | -34.4% | -68.3% | GOOGL 147% · AREN 80% · META 53% |
| Interactive Home Entertainment | 8 | -34.6% | -26.9% | -88.5% | TTWO 45% · RBLX -57% · PINS -58% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Bumble Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| How Low Can Bumble Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Should You Buy Bumble Stock? | 08/09/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bumble (BMBL) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| BMBL Stock Up 29% after 7-Day Win Streak | 07/25/2025 | |
| BMBL Stock Up 26% after 6-Day Win Streak | 07/24/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 893 |
| Op Inc LTM | 248 |
| FCF LTM | 255 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 194 |
| CFO LTM | 267 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 69.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $2.85 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/11/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -60.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $3.00 | $3.37 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.1% | -15.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 59.0% | 69.8% |
| Downside Capture | 221.09 | 212.66 |
| Upside Capture | 157.58 | 75.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 37.1% | 23.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | 1.35 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| Up Beta | -3.10 | 0.67 | -0.63 | 0.04 | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| Down Beta | 0.71 | 0.91 | 1.51 | 0.19 | 1.29 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | -20% | 144% | -33% | 70% | 47% | 63% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 30 | 61 | 120 | 359 |
| Down Capture | 156% | 181% | 146% | 131% | 154% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 22 | 30 | 61 | 125 | 378 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMBL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -55.9% | 69.5% | -0.89 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 3.4% | 15.1% | 0.01 | 29.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.9% | 1.23 | 23.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.0% | 28.8% | 1.14 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 40.9% | 20.2% | 1.58 | 5.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 13.8% | 0.70 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.4% | 44.2% | -0.69 | 22.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMBL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -43.0% | 69.6% | -0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 7.2% | 20.9% | 0.26 | 42.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 40.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 18.6% | 0.90 | -0.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.6% | 0.41 | 3.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 31.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.8% | 0.40 | 23.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BMBL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | -27.1% | 69.3% | -0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.3% | 22.1% | 0.47 | 42.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 41.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.9% | 16.3% | 0.65 | 0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 31.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 22.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/14/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -6.4% | -14.1% | |
| 5/5/2026 | -20.0% | -21.7% | -30.3% |
| 3/11/2026 | 34.2% | 33.1% | 19.7% |
| 11/5/2025 | -21.8% | -28.0% | -32.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.9% | -6.5% | -12.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | 26.7% | 36.4% | 21.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | -30.3% | -32.3% | -42.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 11.2% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| Median Negative | -14.8% | -16.1% | -16.9% |
| Max Positive | 41.9% | 50.3% | 72.2% |
| Max Negative | -30.3% | -32.3% | -42.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -6.4% | -14.1% | |
| 5/5/2026 | -20.0% | -21.7% | -30.3% |
| 3/11/2026 | 34.2% | 33.1% | 19.7% |
| 11/5/2025 | -21.8% | -28.0% | -32.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.9% | -6.5% | -12.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | 26.7% | 36.4% | 21.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | -30.3% | -32.3% | -42.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | -29.2% | -29.0% | -15.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 11.5% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | -14.8% | -16.7% | -15.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | 2.9% | 11.2% | 5.4% |
| 8/8/2023 | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 5/4/2023 | -0.7% | -5.0% | -8.4% |
| 2/22/2023 | 7.5% | 4.4% | -18.0% |
| 11/9/2022 | 10.0% | 15.5% | 11.9% |
| 8/10/2022 | -8.6% | -8.4% | -20.3% |
| 5/11/2022 | 26.8% | 50.3% | 72.2% |
| 3/8/2022 | 41.9% | 36.4% | 63.1% |
| 11/10/2021 | -19.2% | -19.9% | -24.0% |
| 8/11/2021 | 6.6% | 7.0% | 22.1% |
| 5/12/2021 | -14.3% | -15.6% | 0.8% |
| 3/10/2021 | 10.9% | 15.5% | -4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 11.2% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| Median Negative | -14.8% | -16.1% | -16.9% |
| Max Positive | 41.9% | 50.3% | 72.2% |
| Max Negative | -30.3% | -32.3% | -42.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/16/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/16/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/12/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/15/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Total Revenue | 205.00 Mil | 209.00 Mil | 213.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 209.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Bumble App Revenue | 167.00 Mil | 170.00 Mil | 173.00 Mil | -0.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 171.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 56.00 Mil | 58.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | -14.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 67.50 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 205.00 Mil | 209.00 Mil | 213.00 Mil | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 211.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Bumble App Revenue | 168.00 Mil | 171.00 Mil | 174.00 Mil | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 172.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 65.00 Mil | 67.50 Mil | 70.00 Mil | -13.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 78.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 209.00 Mil | 211.00 Mil | 213.00 Mil | -4.1% | Lower New | Actual: 220.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Bumble App Revenue | 171.00 Mil | 172.50 Mil | 174.00 Mil | -3.6% | Lower New | Actual: 179.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 76.00 Mil | 78.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 23.8% | Higher New | Actual: 63.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Total Revenue | 216.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 224.00 Mil | -9.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 244.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Bumble App Revenue | 176.00 Mil | 179.00 Mil | 182.00 Mil | -9.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 197.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 61.00 Mil | 63.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | -22.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 81.50 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 GP Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings Iii GP Management Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 3 | Btoa, - NQ Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 4 | Bcp, Buzz Holdings LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 5 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 Holdco LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 GP Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 2 | Blackstone, Holdings Iii GP Management Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 3 | Btoa, - NQ Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 4 | Bcp, Buzz Holdings LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 5 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 Holdco LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 6182026 | 3.78 | 7,477,500 | 28,228,310 | 73,139 | Form | |
| 6 | Hsiao, Sissie L | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 2.79 | 22,013 | 61,465 | 353,735 | Form | |
| 7 | Mather, Ann | Direct | Sell | 6112026 | 2.79 | 22,013 | 61,458 | 329,034 | Form | |
| 8 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 GP Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 3192026 | 3.51 | 7,477,504 | 26,246,039 | 90,670 | Form | |
| 9 | Blackstone, Holdings Iii GP Management Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 3192026 | 3.51 | 7,477,504 | 26,246,039 | 90,670 | Form | |
| 10 | Btoa, - NQ Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 3192026 | 3.51 | 7,477,504 | 26,246,039 | 90,670 | Form | |
| 11 | Bcp, Buzz Holdings LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 3192026 | 3.51 | 7,477,504 | 26,246,039 | 90,670 | Form | |
| 12 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 Holdco LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 3192026 | 3.51 | 7,477,504 | 26,246,039 | 90,670 | Form | |
| 13 | Hsiao, Sissie L | Direct | Sell | 10082025 | 5.82 | 2,707 | 15,745 | 413,669 | Form | |
| 14 | Herd, Whitney Wolfe | Chief Executive Officer | See footnote | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 1,365,116 | Form | ||
| 15 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 GP Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 16,689,884 | Form | |||
| 16 | Blackstone, Holdings Iii GP Management Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 16,689,884 | Form | |||
| 17 | Bx, Buzz Ml-1 Holdco LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 16,689,884 | Form | |||
| 18 | Btoa, - NQ Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 16,689,884 | Form | |||
| 19 | Bcp, Buzz Holdings LP | See Footnotes | Sell | 8152025 | 6.26 | 16,689,884 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Communication Services Resources |
| Variety |
| The Hollywood Reporter |
| Adweek |
| Interactive Media & Services Resources |
| Social Media Today |
| Search Engine Land |
| Nieman Journalism Lab |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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