Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.73 | Market Cap: $405.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $3.73Market Cap: $405.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -123%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -157% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BMBL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Weak Fourth Quarter 2025 Guidance. Bumble's stock experienced a significant downturn after the company provided a weaker-than-expected revenue forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, ranging from $216 million to $224 million. This guidance fell below analysts' estimates of approximately $233 million, signaling ongoing operational challenges.
2. Significant Decline in Paying Users. A major factor contributing to the stock's drop was the substantial decrease in Bumble's total paying users, which fell by 16.0% year-over-year to 3.6 million in the third quarter of 2025. Specifically, paying users for the flagship Bumble App dropped 18% to 2.3 million, raising concerns about user engagement and retention.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BMBL Return | - | - | -38% | -30% | -45% | -54% | -89% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 16% | -35% | 48% | 16% | 4% | 57% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BMBL Win Rate | - | 30% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 38% | 17% | 42% | 35% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BMBL Max Drawdown | - | - | -52% | -39% | -61% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -6% | -40% | -8% | -10% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HCAT, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BMBL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 511.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HCAT, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META
In The Past
Bumble's stock fell -83.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -83.6% loss requires a 511.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With Bumble Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Bumble Stock Shares Sink 32% In A Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Why Bumble Stock Moved: BMBL Stock Has Lost 89% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| BMBL Stock Up 29% after 7-Day Win Streak | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| BMBL Stock Up 26% after 6-Day Win Streak | July 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BMBL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bumble
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 73.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 832.7 |
| Rev LTM | 95,230 |
| Op Inc LTM | 41,055 |
| FCF LTM | 22,507 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 22,604 |
| CFO LTM | 53,880 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 42,848 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 832.7 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | -13.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 8.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |