Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.435 | Market Cap: $373.0 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Bumble (BMBL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $3.435Market Cap: $373.0 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 26% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34% | |
| Key risksBMBL key risks include [1] a significant decline in paying users and revenue and [2] indicators of financial distress, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Social Media Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -120%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -154% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -34% |
| Key risksBMBL key risks include [1] a significant decline in paying users and revenue and [2] indicators of financial distress, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BMBL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -44.1% movement in Bumble (BMBL) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Significant Drop in Paying Users Across Quarters
Bumble reported a notable decline in paying users in both its Q2 2025 and Q3 2025 results. In early August 2025, Q2 results showed declining paying users that caused the stock to plunge, with concerns raised about the company's AI revamp strategy. This trend continued into Q3 2025, with the company announcing around November 6, 2025, a 16% year-over-year drop in total paying users, representing a loss of approximately 680,600 people, which was a major concern for investors.
2. Weak Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance
The company's Q3 2025 sales, reported around November 6, 2025, fell 10% year-on-year to $246.2 million. Furthermore, Bumble issued a weak revenue forecast for the subsequent quarter (Q4 2025), projecting between $216 million and $224 million. This guidance fell short of analyst estimates and implied a further year-over-year decline of approximately 14-17% compared to Q4 2024, signaling continued financial headwinds.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BMBL Return | � | � | -38% | -30% | -45% | -57% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -61% | 38% | 46% | -12% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BMBL Win Rate | � | 30% | 33% | 42% | 25% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 53% | 46% | 54% | 42% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BMBL Max Drawdown | � | � | -52% | -39% | -61% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -62% | -16% | -14% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MTCH, GRND.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BMBL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -83.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 511.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to HCAT, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL, META
In The Past
Bumble's stock fell -83.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -83.6% loss requires a 511.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Bumble Earnings Notes | |||
| Can Bumble Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| Should You Buy Bumble Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Bumble (BMBL) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| BMBL Stock Up 29% after 7-Day Win Streak | July 25th, 2025 | ||
| BMBL Stock Up 26% after 6-Day Win Streak | July 24th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BMBL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.0% | -5.0% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.3% | 1.3% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Bumble
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,003 |
| Op Inc LTM | 215 |
| FCF LTM | 174 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 164 |
| CFO LTM | 186 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 183 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 24.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.6 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | -3.1 |
| P/E | -3.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.4 |
| Total Yield | -1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -20.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -16.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -46.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -92.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -21.8% | -28.0% | -32.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -15.9% | -6.5% | -12.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | 26.7% | 36.4% | 21.0% |
| 1/17/2025 | -1.6% | -4.2% | 3.5% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | -29.2% | -29.0% | -15.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | 11.5% | 16.6% | 9.3% |
| 2/27/2024 | -14.8% | -16.7% | -15.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 15.5% | 10.6% |
| Median Negative | -11.7% | -8.4% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 41.9% | 36.4% | 63.1% |
| Max Negative | -29.2% | -29.0% | -32.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |