Boeing (BA)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $226.88 | Market Cap: $178.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Boeing (BA)
Market Price (5/2/2026): $226.88Market Cap: $178.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 79x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksBA key risks include [1] persistent quality control failures triggering intense regulatory scrutiny and production caps, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Automation & Robotics, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -5.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -5.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 72x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 79x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksBA key risks include [1] persistent quality control failures triggering intense regulatory scrutiny and production caps, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Production and quality control issues led to a slowdown in 737 MAX deliveries in March 2026. Boeing's narrowbody output slowed due to repairs on damaged wiring in approximately 25 undelivered 737 MAX jets, which pushed around 10 aircraft from the first quarter into the second quarter's delivery schedule. This setback contributed to concerns over consistent production execution and quality, impacting investor sentiment.
2. Ongoing delays in the certification of new 737 MAX variants created uncertainty. The certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 was further pushed into 2026 due to an unresolved engine anti-ice (EAI) system fix. Despite indications from the FAA that no current roadblocks exist for year-end certification, the prolonged delays for these important models continued to weigh on investor confidence regarding future delivery timelines and market competitiveness.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.7% change in BA stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -2.5% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 233.72 | 227.38 | -2.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 89,463 | 92,184 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.5% | 2.5% | -1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 80.4 | 79.0 | -1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 768 | 788 | -2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BA | -2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 54.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.8% | 62.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.1% change in BA stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 201.02 | 227.38 | 13.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80,757 | 92,184 | 14.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 760 | 788 | -3.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 13.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 42.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 51.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.1% change in BA stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 183.24 | 227.38 | 24.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 69,444 | 92,184 | 32.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 1.9 | -2.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 753 | 788 | -4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 24.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 39.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.6% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.0% change in BA stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 206.78 | 227.38 | 10.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 70,538 | 92,184 | 30.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.8 | 1.9 | 10.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 602 | 788 | -23.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BA | 10.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 46.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.9% | 51.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BA Return | -6% | -5% | 37% | -32% | 23% | 5% | 7% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 23% | 14% | 24% | 41% | 1% | 200% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BA Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 53% | 62% | 65% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BA Max Drawdown | -12% | -42% | -7% | -47% | -23% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -9% | -17% | -5% | -6% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RTX, LMT, NOC, GD, GE. See BA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.7% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Boeing's stock fell -26.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.7% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 196.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1463 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Boeing's stock fell -26.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 36.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Boeing (BA)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Essentially, **Airbus** meets **Lockheed Martin**.
- **Tesla for airplanes and space technology.**
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Commercial Jet Aircraft: Designs, manufactures, and sells commercial airplanes for passenger and cargo transport.
- Military Aircraft & Weapons Systems: Produces manned and unmanned military aircraft and various weapons systems.
- Defense & Intelligence Systems: Develops strategic missile defense, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR), and cyber solutions.
- Satellite & Space Systems: Provides government and commercial satellites and systems for space exploration.
- Global Services: Offers a broad range of support including supply chain management, maintenance, upgrades, spare parts, and training for both commercial and defense customers.
- Financing Services (Boeing Capital): Provides financing solutions, primarily for the acquisition and leasing of its aerospace products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Boeing (BA) primarily sells to other companies and governmental entities, not individuals. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
-
Commercial Airlines and Cargo Operators: These companies purchase commercial jet aircraft (such as the 737, 747, 767, 777, and 787 families) and related services, including fleet support, maintenance, and spare parts. Major public company customers in this category include:
- American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
- Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
- United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
- Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
- FedEx Corporation (FDX)
- United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
-
National Governments and Defense Agencies: These entities are customers of Boeing's Defense, Space & Security segment and Global Services segment, purchasing military aircraft (manned and unmanned), weapons systems, strategic defense and intelligence systems, satellites, and related services, including modifications and maintenance. Examples include the U.S. Department of Defense, NASA, and various international militaries and space agencies.
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- Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR)
- General Electric Company (GE)
- Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX)
- Safran S.A. (SAF.PA)
- Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
- Rolls-Royce plc (RR.L)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Kelly Ortberg, President and Chief Executive Officer
Kelly Ortberg became President and Chief Executive Officer of Boeing in August 2024, bringing over 35 years of aerospace experience to the company. He began his career in 1983 as an engineer at Texas Instruments. Ortberg spent over three decades at Rockwell Collins, Inc., starting as a program manager and eventually becoming its President and Chief Executive Officer in 2013, and Chairman from 2015 to 2018. Rockwell Collins was acquired by United Technologies (UTC) in 2018, and Ortberg then served as CEO of the newly formed Collins Aerospace company from December 2018 to February 2020. Following this, he was a special advisor to the office of the chief executive officer for RTX Corporation until March 2021. He also serves on the board of Aptiv PLC and the Aerospace Industries Association's Executive Committee.
Jesus "Jay" Malave, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jesus "Jay" Malave was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Boeing, effective August 15, 2025. Prior to joining Boeing, he served as the Chief Financial Officer of Lockheed Martin. Before that, he was the Senior Vice President and CFO at L3Harris Technologies. Malave also spent over two decades at United Technologies Corporation, holding key leadership roles including Vice President and CFO of Carrier Corporation (then part of UTC) and Vice President and CFO at UTC Aerospace Systems.
Stephanie Pope, Executive Vice President, President and Chief Executive Officer, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
Stephanie Pope leads Boeing Commercial Airplanes, focusing on safety, quality, and customer commitments, and is a champion of talent development and gender diversity. She previously served as Chief Operating Officer of Boeing, overseeing critical operational functions such as supply chain, quality, manufacturing, and engineering.
Chris Raymond, Executive Vice President, President and Chief Executive Officer, Boeing Global Services
Chris Raymond heads Boeing Global Services, providing fleet sustainment, digital capabilities, and engineering services to commercial and government customers. With over 30 years of experience at Boeing, he previously served as the company's Chief Sustainability Officer since October 2020, and prior to that, was Vice President of Sustainability, Strategy and Corporate Development. His extensive career at Boeing includes diverse roles across engineering, supply chain, strategy, sales, and operations.
Stephen (Steve) Parker, Executive Vice President, President and Chief Executive Officer, Boeing Defense, Space & Security
Steve Parker was named Executive Vice President and President and Chief Executive Officer of Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) in July 2025, having served as interim leader of the unit since September 2024. With over three decades of service at Boeing, Parker oversees the design, development, production, and delivery of technology, products, and solutions for defense, government, space, and intelligence customers worldwide. His previous roles include BDS Chief Operating Officer, Vice President and Program Manager for key programs such as the T-7A Advanced Pilot Training program, the F-15 Eagle, and the H-47 Chinook. He also served as Chief Operating Officer of Boeing Defence Australia and led the Bombers & Fighters and Vertical Lift divisions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Boeing Company (BA) faces several key risks to its business operations and financial performance. The most significant risk stems from ongoing **manufacturing and quality control issues** across its aircraft programs. Boeing has experienced a series of production problems, including improperly drilled holes in aft pressure bulkheads, loose bolts in rudder control systems, and incidents like the door plug ejection on Alaska Airlines Flight 1282. Most recently, the company identified wiring damage on a number of undelivered 737 MAX jets, leading to temporary delivery halts and requiring extensive rework. These recurring quality deficiencies have resulted in production delays, increased regulatory scrutiny from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and have impacted customer confidence. Secondly, **geopolitical risks and U.S.-China tensions** pose a considerable threat. Boeing's senior vice-president has highlighted geopolitics as the "biggest risk" for the aviation industry, with long-term conflicts potentially hitting demand. Specifically, U.S.-China trade relations, including existing tariffs, create challenges for Boeing's operations and aircraft deliveries within the critical Chinese market. Furthermore, the rise of Chinese domestic aircraft manufacturers like COMAC, backed by government funding, represents increasing competition and a potential loss of market share for Boeing in the region and globally. Finally, Boeing's **financial health and significant debt load** present a notable risk. The company has been described as having a mixed financial picture, with a substantial debt load and an Altman Z-Score indicating potential financial instability. While Boeing has a large order backlog, its profitability has faced challenges, and it has experienced periods of negative free cash flow, limiting its financial flexibility and ability to return capital to investors. These financial pressures are often exacerbated by the costs associated with addressing quality control issues and production delays.AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlThe emergence of SpaceX as a dominant player in reusable launch systems and satellite internet constellations poses a significant threat to Boeing's traditional space and launch systems business within its Defense, Space & Security segment. SpaceX's innovative technologies and business model challenge the established aerospace industry's approach to space launch and satellite services.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable markets for Boeing's main products and services are significant globally:
-
Commercial Airplanes:
- The global commercial aerospace market size was valued at USD 960.07 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,812.96 billion by 2034.
- The global commercial aircraft manufacturing market size was calculated at USD 416.03 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 668.05 billion by 2035.
-
Defense, Space & Security:
- The global military aircraft market size was valued at USD 46.06 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 59.57 billion by 2033. Another estimate for the global military aircraft market size in 2024 was USD 48.3 billion, poised to grow to USD 73.02 billion by 2033.
- The global missile defense system market was valued at USD 31.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.2 billion by 2033.
- The global satellite market size was estimated at USD 362.28 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 780.24 billion by 2035.
- The global space exploration market is valued at USD 564.6 billion, driven by governmental and private investments. It was valued at USD 496 billion in 2023 and is expected to expand to USD 1,895 billion by the end of 2033.
-
Global Services:
- The global aerospace and defense MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) market size was estimated at USD 135.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 187.3 billion by 2030.
- The global pilot training market size accounted for USD 9.41 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 31.38 billion by 2034. The global civil aviation flight training and simulation market is valued at USD 9.8 billion.
-
Boeing Capital:
- The global commercial aircraft finance market size is calculated at USD 101.42 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 317.70 billion by 2035. The global aircraft leasing market size was valued at USD 192.45 billion in 2024.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Boeing Company (BA) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key areas:
- Increased Commercial Airplane Production and Deliveries: Boeing expects higher commercial deliveries for its 737 and 787 programs. In 2025, the company delivered 600 commercial airplanes, the highest annual total since 2018, and increased its 737 production rate to 42 aircraft per month, with the 787 transitioning to eight per month. This ramp-up in production and deliveries is a primary contributor to revenue growth, supported by a significant backlog of over 6,100 commercial airplanes valued at approximately $567 billion to $700 billion.
- Growth in Global Services Segment: The Global Services (BGS) segment continues to demonstrate strong performance, with adjusted revenue growing 6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This segment recorded annual orders of $28 billion and a backlog reaching $30 billion, with both its commercial and government businesses achieving double-digit margins.
- Robust Backlog and Improved Performance in Defense, Space & Security: The Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment reported a 37% increase in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025. It secured $15 billion in orders during the quarter, leading to a record backlog of $85 billion. This substantial backlog and improved operational performance position the segment for sustained future revenue.
- Certification and Deliveries of New Aircraft Programs: The anticipated certification of the 737-10 narrowbody jet, expected later in 2026, along with the progressing certification of the 777X program, will contribute new revenue streams as these aircraft move into production and delivery.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Boeing suspended its share buyback program in March 2020, following a request for a bailout and continued financial challenges. As a result, there have been no significant share repurchases as a capital allocation strategy in the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- In October 2024, Boeing planned a capital raise exceeding $15 billion to bolster its liquidity.
- The company subsequently raised approximately $21 billion through an upsized share sale, which included the issuance of 112.5 million common shares and $5 billion in depositary shares.
- The net proceeds from this offering, totaling about $20.72 billion (approximately $15.81 billion from common stock and $4.91 billion from depositary shares), were earmarked for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, working capital, and capital expenditures.
Outbound Investments
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Boeing made a strategic acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, aiming to enhance production stability and quality control within its operations.
Capital Expenditures
- Boeing's capital expenditures have shown an increasing trend from 2021 to 2025, with reported figures of approximately $0.980 billion in 2021, $1.222 billion in 2022, $1.527 billion in 2023, $2.230 billion in 2024, and $2.942 billion in 2025.
- For 2026, expected capital expenditures are projected to reach approximately $3.901 billion.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes investments in facilities in Charleston and St. Louis to support future production rate increases and expansions, as well as strategic investments in sustainable aviation research and development, and digital infrastructure upgrades.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Boeing Stock Surges 11% In A Single Week, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock | 04/07/2026 | |
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| What Is Happening With Boeing Stock? | 01/15/2026 | |
| Where Does Boeing Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 01/15/2026 | |
| Why Boeing Stock Jumped 60%? | 12/31/2026 | |
| Boeing Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| Would You Still Hold Boeing Stock If It Fell 30%? | 11/26/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
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| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 01/23/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to BA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 11302022 | BA | Boeing | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 15.0% | 29.5% | -1.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 316.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 148.5 |
| Rev LTM | 64,457 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,465 |
| FCF LTM | 5,932 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,746 |
| CFO LTM | 7,396 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,859 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 148.5 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.1 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 28.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Airplanes (BCA) | 84,177 | 77,047 | 76,825 | 75,863 | 77,973 |
| Unallocated items, eliminations and other | 40,132 | 28,851 | 29,700 | 29,583 | 40,530 |
| Global Services (BGS) | 16,704 | 16,193 | 16,149 | 16,397 | 17,399 |
| Defense, Space & Security (BDS) | 15,350 | 14,921 | 14,426 | 14,974 | 14,256 |
| Boeing Capital (BCC) | 1,735 | 1,978 | |||
| Total | 156,363 | 137,012 | 137,100 | 138,552 | 152,136 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $227.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 179.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $217.47 | $219.64 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 4.6% | 3.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.1% | 30.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.93 | 0.68 |
| Upside Capture | 113.41 | 114.93 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 52.8% | 39.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.83 | 1.51 | 1.21 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| Up Beta | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| Down Beta | 3.04 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 167% | 144% | 115% | 148% | 115% | 64% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 21 | 30 | 64 | 127 | 379 |
| Down Capture | 136% | 164% | 143% | 124% | 113% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 22 | 34 | 61 | 124 | 372 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | 20.4% | 30.5% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 33.7% | 15.4% | 1.68 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 40.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -7.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 20.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.2% | 42.1% | -0.36 | 32.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | -1.8% | 36.3% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.4% | 0.59 | 58.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 53.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 15.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 40.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.4% | 56.1% | 0.35 | 21.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BA | 6.4% | 41.4% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 68.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 59.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 8.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 25.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 50.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | 5.5% | 5.3% | |
| 1/27/2026 | -1.6% | -6.2% | -7.3% |
| 10/29/2025 | -4.4% | -11.3% | -16.3% |
| 7/29/2025 | -4.4% | -6.0% | -0.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.1% | 12.0% | 25.0% |
| 1/28/2025 | 1.5% | 0.4% | -1.2% |
| 10/11/2024 | -1.3% | 2.6% | -1.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 2.0% | -11.7% | -8.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 2.6% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.6% | -1.6% |
| Max Positive | 8.7% | 12.0% | 40.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.8% | -11.7% | -26.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 737-7 and 737-10 Certification | |||||||
| 2027 737-7 and 737-10 First Delivery | |||||||
| 2027 777X First Delivery | Affirmed | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 First Delivery of 777X | |||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buckley, Mortimer J | Direct | Buy | 3052026 | 224.20 | 2,230 | 499,966 | 993,206 | Form | |
| 2 | Amuluru, Uma M | EVP and Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 233.78 | 1,503 | 351,484 | 4,445,415 | Form |
| 3 | Schmidt, Ann M | SVP, Chief Com & Brand Officer | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 243.37 | 6,281 | 1,528,613 | 3,401,754 | Form |
| 4 | McKenzie, Howard E | Chief Engineer & EVP, ET&T | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 233.99 | 10,497 | 2,456,150 | 3,437,741 | Form |
| 5 | Amuluru, Uma M | EVP and Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 236.00 | 2,731 | 644,598 | 2,814,300 | Form |
BA Trade Sentinel
UNDERWEIGHT (Score 3-4)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The final score reflects a deeply conflicted situation. While the sector tailwinds (strong demand, record backlog) are powerful, they are nullified by severe, company-specific operational failures, regulatory overhang, and a high probability of continued execution risk. The negative risk/reward skew and 'Value Trap' valuation make this an unattractive investment despite the visible backlog. The stock is assigned an UNDERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type E: Turnaround / Deep ValueThe company is emerging from a multi-year crisis defined by production failures and financial losses. The investment thesis is centered on new management's ability to execute an operational turnaround, stabilize production, and convert a record backlog into positive free cash flow, which are the hallmarks of a Turnaround archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary catalyst for Boeing is the successful execution of its production ramp for the 737 and 787 programs. Converting the record $695 billion backlog into consistent deliveries is the key to flipping from significant cash burn to sustainable positive free cash flow, which management guides for $1B-$3B in 2026.
- Record total company backlog of $695 billion, with over 6,100 commercial airplanes, providing multi-year revenue visibility.
- Q1 2026 commercial deliveries of 143 aircraft were the highest for a first quarter since 2019.
- Management has reiterated guidance for $1 billion to $3 billion in positive free cash flow for full-year 2026.
- The market is in a severe supply deficit, providing strong pricing power and demand certainty for the foreseeable future.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is the inability to resolve systemic quality control issues, which has led to intense FAA scrutiny and a physical cap on 737 production rates. A failure to demonstrate sustainable manufacturing improvements could lead to further production halts, delivery delays, and potential regulatory penalties, jeopardizing the entire turnaround narrative.
- The FAA capped 737 MAX production and mandated a comprehensive action plan following a Q1 2024 audit that found multiple non-compliance issues.
- The DOJ determined Boeing violated its 2021 deferred prosecution agreement, opening the door to potential criminal prosecution.
- The Commercial Airplanes (BCA) segment reported a negative 6.1% operating margin in Q1 2026, highlighting the financial drag from production inefficiencies.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Aircraft Deliveries | Sustainably >140 units/quarter | This is the most direct, high-frequency indicator of production stability and the ability to convert backlog into revenue and cash flow. |
| Free Cash Flow (Full-Year) | Positive for FY2026 (>$1B) | Achieving positive FCF is the central pillar of the turnaround thesis, signaling the end of the cash burn era. |
| Commercial Airplanes (BCA) Operating Margin | Trending towards breakeven (-6.1% in Q1 2026) | Margin improvement in the largest segment is critical for overall profitability and demonstrates that production increases are happening efficiently. |
Backlog Execution vs. Production/Regulatory Failure
BULL VIEW
Record backlog and supply deficits provide a multi-year runway. Stabilizing production will drive massive operating leverage, leading to a significant FCF inflection in 2026.
CORE TENSION
Can Boeing translate its record $695B backlog into FCF before systemic quality failures and regulatory caps cause a fatal breach of investor and customer trust?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BCA segment's -6.1% operating margin and the FAA's active production cap on the 737 demonstrate that operational and regulatory headwinds are currently overriding the backlog's potential.
BEAR VIEW
Systemic quality issues are unresolved. FAA production caps and potential DOJ prosecution will prevent production ramps, burn cash, and destroy the turnaround thesis.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | FY26 Q2 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: Commercial Airplanes (BCA) Operating Margin vs. Q1's -6.1% and any change to the reaffirmed $1B-$3B FY26 FCF guidance. |
July 20-24, 2026 | Farnborough Airshow Order Battle Watch: Headline number of net new orders and commitments for the 737 MAX family versus the Airbus A320neo family. |
Late October 2026 | FY26 Q3 Earnings & Production Ramp Update Watch: Confirmation of 737 production rate successfully increasing from 42 to 47 per month without new quality 'escapes'. |
Anytime | DOJ Decision on DPA Violation Watch: Announcement of criminal prosecution or a new, more punitive deferred prosecution agreement (DPA). |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 29, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported 160 commercial deliveries but also significant charges in its Defense (BDS) segment due to cost overruns on fixed-price contracts, driving an earnings miss. | Fell notably by -4.37% $223.33 -> $213.58 |
Dec 2, 2025 | Spirit AeroSystems Acquisition Completed Details: Boeing finalized its acquisition of key supplier Spirit AeroSystems to gain more control over its manufacturing process and address ongoing quality issues. | Surged +10.15% $186.46 -> $205.38 |
Jan 12, 2026 | FAA Production Cap Formalized Details: Following the Jan 2024 Alaska Air incident audit, the FAA formally announced it would cap 737 MAX production until quality control improvements were verified. | Rose significantly by 2.25% $234.53 -> $239.81 |
Jan 27, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported 160 aircraft deliveries for Q4. Management provided initial full-year 2026 guidance for $1B-$3B in positive free cash flow. [3, 35] | Modest -1.56% pullback $248.43 -> $244.56 |
Mar 17, 2026 | CFO Discloses Spirit Integration Headwinds Details: At an investor conference, Boeing's CFO disclosed that the Spirit AeroSystems integration would be a ~$1B FCF headwind in 2026, pushing BCA profitability timeline to 2027. | Slight -1.24% pullback $213.47 -> $210.82 |
Apr 22, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported Q1 loss per share of ($0.20), beating estimates. Delivered 143 commercial aircraft and reaffirmed full-year positive FCF guidance of $1B-$3B. [2, 21] | Stock surged +5.53% $219.16 -> $231.28 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in a moderate volatility regime, but near-term fear is spiking. The combination of Bearish sentiment, a 'Contested' moat, and a 'Value Trap' valuation creates a classic 'knife catch' scenario, forcing a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
GD
SECTORSuperior operational execution with consistent performance, a record backlog of $118B, and revenue growth in all four segments. Avoids BA's commercial aerospace quality control crisis. [10]
RTX
SECTORBenefits from the same aerospace tailwinds via high-margin aftermarket services (Pratt & Whitney, Collins), which is more stable than new builds. Diversified across both Boeing and Airbus platforms. [23]
Boeing is transitioning from a period of production crises and financial losses towards a recovery narrative centered on stabilizing production rates, improving cash flow, and working through a record backlog, even as profitability remains pressured.
Filter all news through the lens of production stability and backlog execution. The core debate is whether Boeing can consistently meet delivery targets without further quality or supply chain disruptions.
Monthly delivery numbers consistently meeting or exceeding a rate of 42 for the 737 and 8 for the 787; FAA certification of the 737-7, 737-10, and 777-9 on the stated 2026-2027 timeline; book-to-bill ratio >1.0; sustained positive free cash flow.
Any new production halts or quality-related delivery pauses; further delays in certification timelines for the 737 MAX variants or the 777-9; major order cancellations from key airline customers; significant new charges on fixed-price defense contracts.
Single-month order wins/losses versus Airbus (the backlog is the key multi-year metric); minor fluctuations in quarterly defense margins (long-term program execution is more critical); general commentary on air travel demand (already reflected in the massive backlog).
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful ramp-up of 737 production to a stable rate of 42 per month and the 787 to 8 per month, which underpins the company's guidance for generating $1 billion to $3 billion in positive free cash flow for full-year 2026. Achieving this would signal a crucial turn from cash consumption to cash generation, driven by converting the record $695 billion backlog into deliveries and revenue.
Commercial Airplanes (BCA)
$36.8B TTM (41.4% of Total) · -6.1% MarginWhat It Is
737 MAX family (narrowbody), 787 Dreamliner, 777/777X, 767, and 747 (widebody) commercial aircraft.
Who Pays & How
Global airlines (e.g., Delta, Air India) and leasing companies (e.g., Aviation Capital Group) place multi-billion dollar, multi-year orders for aircraft. Switching costs are extremely high due to pilot training, maintenance infrastructure, and fleet commonality, creating a near-duopoly with Airbus.
Competition
Defense, Space & Security (BDS)
$30.4B TTM (34.2% of Total) · 3.1% MarginWhat It Is
Fighter jets (F/A-18, F-15), military rotorcraft (AH-64 Apache, CH-47 Chinook), tankers (KC-46), satellites, and autonomous systems.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments pay for mission-critical, multi-decade platforms. These contracts are driven by national security requirements, and platforms are often sole-sourced, providing long-term, locked-in revenue streams.
Competition
Global Services (BGS)
$21.6B TTM (24.3% of Total) · 18.1% MarginWhat It Is
Aircraft maintenance, spare parts, logistics, and digital aviation solutions.
Who Pays & How
Airlines and governments pay for aftermarket support to maintain the operational readiness and efficiency of their fleets. This is a recurring, high-margin revenue stream tied to the large installed base of Boeing aircraft.
Competition
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