AEVEX (AVEX)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $32.15 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
AEVEX (AVEX)
Market Price (6/3/2026): $32.15Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include National Security & Defense Technology. Themes include Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 172% Key risksAVEX key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government and defense spending, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include National Security & Defense Technology. Themes include Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -63% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 172% |
| Key risksAVEX key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government and defense spending, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
AEVEX (AVEX) stock has gained about 20% since it went public on 4/17/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance. AEVEX reported robust financial results for its first quarter as a public company, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced total revenue of $216.7 million, marking a substantial 307% increase from $53.3 million in Q1 2025. Furthermore, AEVEX achieved a net income of $21.0 million, a notable turnaround from a net loss of $27.3 million in the prior-year period. Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22 also exceeded analyst estimates of $0.16.
2. Strong Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance. The company's optimistic outlook for the full fiscal year 2026 provided a significant boost to investor confidence. AEVEX projected full-year revenue guidance between $600.0 million and $620.0 million, which surpassed the average analyst estimate of $585.44 million.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVEX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.0% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | -1.4% | 5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVEX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.8% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.0% | 5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVEX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 23.6% | 5.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AVEX | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.9% | -11.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 88.1% | 5.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AVEX Return | - | - | - | - | - | 43% | 43% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 15% | 26% | 13% | 63% | -5% | 149% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AVEX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 52% | 55% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AVEX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -28% | -20% | -22% | -25% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AVAV, KTOS, LHX, NOC, LMT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AVEX has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
AVEX has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About AEVEX (AVEX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for AEVEX (AVEX):
- SpaceX for military drones
- Boston Dynamics for defense's autonomous systems
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Unmanned Systems (UxS): Designs and manufactures battle-tested, autonomous, modular, and attritable Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV), including precision strike launched effects and loitering munitions.
- ISR Solutions: Provides AI-enabled full-spectrum airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission solutions.
- Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS): Offers bespoke solutions designed to detect and neutralize unmanned aerial threats.
- Additive Manufacturing (ForgeX): Delivers a highly innovative, deployable solution for manufacturing mission-ready UxS directly in operational environments.
- Aircraft Engineering and Modification: Provides specialized mission aircraft engineering, modification, and testing services.
- CompassX Sensor-Fusion Engine: A proprietary AI-based software engine that delivers assured positioning, navigation, and timing (APNT) and advanced onboard autonomy for UxS, especially in GPS-denied environments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AEVEX (AVEX) sells primarily to government agencies and organizations. Its major customers include:
- United States Department of War (DoW)
- Special Operations Forces (SOF)
- Intelligence Community (IC)
- Allied international partners
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Roger Wells, Chief Executive Officer
Roger Wells was appointed Chief Executive Officer of AEVEX in November 2025, having previously served as President since April 2025. He brings over 25 years of defense leadership experience to the role, including leadership positions at Northrop Grumman, ICX Technologies, FLIR, and Mercury Systems. Prior to joining AEVEX, Wells held the position of Chief Operating Officer and Executive Vice President at Mercury Systems, a public company with a multi-billion dollar enterprise value, where he was instrumental in leading growth and operations across a diverse portfolio of advanced defense electronics.
Todd Booth, Chief Financial Officer
Todd Booth was appointed Chief Financial Officer of AEVEX in October 2025. He possesses deep expertise in finance and operations within both the private and public sectors. Before joining AEVEX, Booth served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Teledyne FLIR and as Chief Operating Officer of Aerospace and Defense Electronics at Teledyne Technologies Incorporated. His career also includes senior roles at 3D Systems Corporation and Vallourec, as well as positions at Ernst & Young and KPMG.
Brian Raduenz, Executive Chairman
Brian Raduenz is the Co-Founder of AEVEX Aerospace and transitioned to Executive Chairman in November 2025, after serving as the company's CEO. Prior to AEVEX, he was the CEO of Merlin Global Services, a leading provider of flight operations, aircraft maintenance, and aviation training support to the DoD intelligence community, where he led the company through significant organic growth. Before joining Merlin, Raduenz served 20 years in the U.S. Air Force as a commander, flight test engineer, and program manager for various manned and unmanned Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) acquisition programs.
Manan Patel, Chief Technology Officer
Manan Patel serves as the Chief Technology Officer for AEVEX Aerospace. Before the formation of AEVEX, he was the CEO and Founder of Special Operations Solutions, LLC (SOS), a company specializing in ISR and remote sensing technical solutions. Under his leadership, SOS successfully supported several high-profile ISR programs and was recognized on Inc500's list of America's fastest-growing companies. Prior to founding SOS, Patel worked as an Electronics Engineer with the CERDEC Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD).
Dan Talati, Chief Operations Officer
Dan Talati is the Chief Operations Officer for AEVEX Aerospace. Before joining AEVEX, he completed a 27-year career in the U.S. Air Force, retiring as a Colonel. His experience includes leading airborne operations, government procurement, and strategic planning, and he previously served at Headquarters, Air Combat Command as the Deputy Assistant Director of Plans, Programs and Requirements, ensuring the readiness and lethality of the USAF's combat forces aircraft.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Heavy Reliance on Government Contracts and Defense Spending: AEVEX's business is heavily dependent on contracts with U.S. government agencies such as the Department of War (DoW), Special Operations Forces (SOF), and the Intelligence Community (IC), as well as allied international partners. The company's stated "prime contractor position on 84.0% of all programs" highlights this significant reliance. Consequently, AEVEX is vulnerable to shifts in defense budgets, changes in strategic priorities, extended government procurement cycles, or potential cancellation of programs, which could significantly impact its revenue and pipeline.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Obsolescence: Operating in the dynamic defense technology sector, particularly in Unmanned Systems (UxS), artificial intelligence (AI), and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) solutions, AEVEX faces continuous pressure to innovate. The company emphasizes its need for "rapidly innovating through constant customer feedback and in-theater experience, enabling the warfighter with the cutting-edge technology and capability to meet the ever-changing threat environment" to maintain its "leadership in mission capabilities." Failure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements or the emergence of superior competitive solutions could diminish its market position and financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market sizes for AEVEX's main products and services are as follows:The U.S. addressable Unmanned Systems (UxS) opportunity is expected to reach annual levels of approximately $11.0 billion by 2030.
The global addressable UxS opportunity is expected to reach annual levels of approximately $26.0 billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for AEVEX (AVEX) over the next 2-3 years:- Growth in the Global Unmanned Systems (UxS) and ISR Market: AEVEX is positioned in a rapidly expanding market, with the U.S. and global addressable UxS opportunities projected to reach approximately $11.0 billion and $26.0 billion annually, respectively, by 2030. This substantial market growth is fueled by accelerating global defense spending and increased demand for advanced defense technologies, including tactical intelligence and mission solutions.
- Conversion of Identified Pipeline and Funded Backlog: The company has a significant pipeline of identified growth opportunities, totaling $8.1 billion as of December 2025, which represents a 98% year-over-year increase. Additionally, AEVEX holds a funded backlog of $503.1 million as of December 2025, an 181% increase year-over-year, and has commitments for over 3,900 systems through the end of 2026. These commitments and pipeline provide a clear trajectory for future revenue.
- Continuous Innovation and Expansion of Advanced UxS Platforms and AI-Enabled Solutions: AEVEX's focus on developing and deploying cutting-edge autonomous, AI-enabled, and attritable UxS, including 35 unique platforms in the last three years, drives demand. Key innovations such as the proprietary AI-based CompassX sensor-fusion engine for GPS-denied environments and ForgeX, a deployable additive manufacturing solution, enhance its competitive edge and open new revenue streams. The adoption of its advanced products, such as the U.S. Army's selection of the Aevex Atlas Precision Strike System, further validates this growth driver.
- Strong Prime Contractor Position and Deep Customer Relationships: AEVEX maintains a strong position as a prime contractor on 84.0% of all programs and serves over 30 unique active customers, including key agencies within the United States Department of War, Special Operations Forces, Intelligence Community, and allied international partners. The U.S. government accounted for 78% of its 2025 revenue. These established relationships and its prime contractor status are crucial for securing ongoing contracts and capturing new programs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions for AEVEX (AVEX) Over the Last 3-5 Years
Share Repurchases
- AEVEX had a 0.00% 10-Year Share Buyback Ratio as of December 2025, indicating no share repurchases over that period.
- The 1-Year and 3-Year Share Buyback Ratios for AEVEX were also 0.00% as of December 2025, suggesting no share repurchases in the most recent years.
Share Issuance
- AEVEX completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on April 17, 2026, issuing 16 million shares at $20.00 per share.
- The IPO raised $320 million for the company.
- Net proceeds from the IPO are designated for acquiring newly issued Series A Units in Holdings LLC, purchasing Series B Units from certain equityholders, and repurchasing Class A common stock from certain partners.
Inbound Investments
- Private equity firm Madison Dearborn Partners acquired AEVEX in 2020 and remains its principal stockholder.
- Following the IPO, Madison Dearborn will retain control of AEVEX, holding 79.1% of the combined voting power, which would reduce to 76.7% if underwriters exercise their option for additional shares.
Capital Expenditures
- For the trailing twelve months ended December 2025, AEVEX reported capital expenditures of -$8.47 million.
- The company has invested $104.2 million in research and development since 2024, with $25.4 million expended in 2025.
- AEVEX has built approximately 100,000 square feet of dedicated production space across the U.S. to enhance its manufacturing capacity.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| How To Earn 25% Yield While Waiting to Buy AVEX 60% Cheaper | 06/02/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 256.24 |
| Mkt Cap | 57.6 |
| Rev LTM | 22,477 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,233 |
| FCF LTM | 2,589 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,002 |
| CFO LTM | 3,053 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,439 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 57.6 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.2 |
| P/EBIT | 17.4 |
| P/E | 24.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Tactical Systems | 298 |
| Global Solutions | 94 |
| Total | 392 |
| $ Mil | 2025 |
|---|---|
| Tactical Systems | 84 |
| Change in contingent consideration | 62 |
| Restructuring – severance | -0 |
| Business acquisition costs | -0 |
| Global Solutions | -3 |
| Corporate | -5 |
| Other | -10 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -21 |
| Total | 107 |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/20/2026 | 1.7% | 54.1% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 54.1% | |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 1.7% | 54.1% | |
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/14/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson, Michael Andrew | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 4202026 | 20.00 | 650 | 13,000 | 13,000 | Form |
| 2 | Wells, Charles Roger IV | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Buy | 4202026 | 20.00 | 500 | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form |
| 3 | Raduenz, Brian | Direct | Buy | 4202026 | 20.00 | 50,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form | |
| 4 | Hush, Brett P | See Remarks | Direct | Buy | 4202026 | 20.00 | 10,000 | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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