Ardent Health (ARDT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.97 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Facilities
Ardent Health (ARDT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $8.97Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Oncology Treatments, Show more. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 90% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARDT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate -30.1% stock movement for Ardent Health (ARDT) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Third Quarter 2025 Net Loss and Missed Earnings Expectations: Ardent Health reported a net loss of $23 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2025. This result fell below analyst consensus estimates, which had projected earnings per share in the range of $0.41 to $0.52.
2. Downward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: The company significantly reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $530 million to $555 million, a notable decrease from its prior forecast of $575 million to $615 million. This revised outlook, implying a 9% increase at the midpoint from 2024, signaled weakening financial expectations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARDT Return | - | - | - | - | - | -48% | -48% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 5% | 9% | -1% | -12% | -16% | -6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARDT Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 40% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 15% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARDT Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -52% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -4% | -5% | -13% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHC, AMTU, AVG, MCTA, SRTA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
ARDT has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1100 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ardent Health Earnings Notes | |||
| Can Ardent Health Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | Return | ||
| How Does ARDT Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | |||
| Day 8 of Gains Streak for Ardent Health Stock with 24% Return (vs. -26% YTD) [8/13/2025] | Notification | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Ardent Health (ARDT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Ardent Health Stock To $12? | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| How Does ARDT Stock Compare With Its Peers Right Now? | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| ARDT Stock Up 24% after 8-Day Win Streak | August 14th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARDT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 10.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ardent Health
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 8.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,266 |
| Op Inc LTM | 432 |
| FCF LTM | -20 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -32 |
| CFO LTM | 302 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 249 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.3 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 14.2 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 9.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -7.6% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -29.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -31.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -37.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -56.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -82.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -38.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -53.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -69.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -156.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 7182024 | 424B4 12/31/2023 |
| 12312018 | 3062019 | S-1/A 12/31/2018 |
| 12312017 | 12212018 | S-1/A 12/31/2017 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |