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Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT)


Market Price (2/3/2026): $7.38 | Market Cap: $200.6 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT)


Market Price (2/3/2026): $7.38
Market Cap: $200.6 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -78%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -92%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.59
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -64%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more.
  Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38%
5   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%
6   Key risks
ARCT key risks include [1] clinical trial setbacks and regulatory delays for its lead cystic fibrosis and COVID-19 vaccine programs, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -78%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -49%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include mRNA Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -134%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 12.59
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -78 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -92%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -64%
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%
8 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -69%
9 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -38%
10 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26%
11 Key risks
ARCT key risks include [1] clinical trial setbacks and regulatory delays for its lead cystic fibrosis and COVID-19 vaccine programs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) stock has lost about 25% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Interim Phase 2 Data for ARCT-032 in Cystic Fibrosis.

Arcturus Therapeutics released interim Phase 2 results for its investigational inhaled mRNA therapy, ARCT-032, for cystic fibrosis in late October 2025. While the treatment was generally safe and well-tolerated, initial analysis did not show a meaningful improvement in lung function as measured by FEV1. Although high-resolution CT scans indicated encouraging reductions in mucus plugs and volume in some participants, the lack of clear FEV1 improvement disappointed investors, contributing to a significant stock price drop.

2. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.

On November 10, 2025, Arcturus reported a substantial year-over-year decline in its third-quarter 2025 revenues, primarily due to reduced collaboration revenue from the CSL agreement. Both earnings per share (EPS) and total revenue significantly missed analyst expectations, further contributing to negative market sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -26.6% change in ARCT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)103120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)9.977.32-26.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11085-22.5%
P/S Multiple2.52.3-5.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2727-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-26.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARCT-26.6% 
Market (SPY)1.1%40.2%
Sector (XLV)6.8%26.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -40.0% change in ARCT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)73120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)12.217.32-40.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)13185-35.1%
P/S Multiple2.52.3-7.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2727-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-40.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARCT-40.0% 
Market (SPY)9.4%26.8%
Sector (XLV)18.7%20.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -56.9% change in ARCT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)13120252032026Change
Stock Price ($)16.977.32-56.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)14285-40.2%
P/S Multiple3.22.3-27.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2727-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution-56.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARCT-56.9% 
Market (SPY)15.6%31.5%
Sector (XLV)6.3%27.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -65.4% change in ARCT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232032026Change
Stock Price ($)21.137.32-65.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)528565.3%
P/S Multiple10.92.3-78.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2627-2.7%
Cumulative Contribution-65.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ARCT-65.4% 
Market (SPY)75.9%31.0%
Sector (XLV)20.9%25.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ARCT Return-15%-54%86%-46%-64%20%-83%
Peers Return47%3%-12%-14%-11%15%17%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%2%86%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARCT Win Rate25%50%67%42%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate50%57%47%43%53%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARCT Max Drawdown-41%-67%-13%-53%-65%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-37%-36%-31%-39%-5% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MRNA, VRTX, ALNY, SRPT, NTLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/3/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARCTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven609.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven191.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-76.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven329.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven433 days120 days

Compare to MRNA, VRTX, ALNY, SRPT, NTLA

In The Past

Arcturus Therapeutics's stock fell -85.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2021. A -85.9% loss requires a 609.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT)

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., an RNA medicines company, focuses on the development of vaccines for infectious, and liver and respiratory rare diseases in the United States. The company's development programs comprise LUNAR-OTC development program for ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency; and LUNAR-CF program for cystic fibrosis lung disease caused by mutations in cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene, as well as vaccine programs include LUNAR-COV19 and LUNAR-FLU. It has collaboration partnerships with Vinbiocare Biotechnology Joint Stock Company for the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines; Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop nucleic acid-based therapeutic candidates for the treatment of hepatitis B virus; Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. to develop mRNA therapeutic candidates for rare disease targets; CureVac AG to develop mRNA therapeutic and vaccine candidates for various indications; Singapore Economic Development Board and Duke-NUS Medical School to develop LUNAR-COV19 vaccine; and Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to discover siRNA medicines for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Arcturus Therapeutics:

  • A Moderna or BioNTech, but with a focus on its proprietary mRNA delivery system for a broad range of therapeutics.
  • Like a developing Moderna (or BioNTech) that is building out a diverse pipeline of mRNA medicines.

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  • ARCT-154 (VBC-0154): A self-amplifying mRNA vaccine for COVID-19, approved for use in Japan.
  • ARCT-032: An investigational inhaled mRNA therapeutic designed to treat Cystic Fibrosis.
  • ARCT-810: An investigational mRNA therapeutic targeting Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) Deficiency, a rare genetic metabolic disorder.

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Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) primarily operates under a business-to-business (B2B) model, focusing on developing and licensing its mRNA technology and drug candidates rather than selling directly to individuals. Its major "customers" are typically other pharmaceutical companies, governments, and healthcare organizations that acquire licenses for development, commercialization rights, or directly purchase vaccine supplies.

Based on publicly available information, a key customer and partner is:

  • Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd.: A Japanese pharmaceutical company. Arcturus has an exclusive license agreement with Meiji Seika Pharma for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of its COVID-19 vaccine (ARCT-154, now approved as ARCT-2131) in Japan. While Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd. is a private subsidiary, its parent company is Meiji Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO: 2269). Meiji Seika Pharma then supplies the vaccine to the Japanese government and healthcare system.

Historically, Arcturus has also engaged in collaborations with large pharmaceutical companies such as Sanofi and Janssen Pharmaceuticals (a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson), indicating a strategy of partnering with larger entities for broader commercialization and development, although these specific collaborations have since been terminated.

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  • Lonza Ltd. (LONN)

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Joseph E. Payne President & Chief Executive Officer

Joseph E. Payne is the co-founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Arcturus Therapeutics, serving on its Board since March 2013. He has over 20 years of drug discovery experience, including positions at Merck Research Labs, DuPont Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Kalypsys, and Nitto.

Andrew Sassine Chief Financial Officer

Andrew Sassine has served as Chief Financial Officer at Arcturus Therapeutics since January 2019. He is also on the Board of Directors of Nasdaq-listed ICAD Inc. Previously, he was a Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments from 1999 to 2012, managing funds such as the Fidelity Small Cap Stock Fund and the Fidelity International Small Cap Opportunities Fund. He has served on the boards of other companies including Gemphire Therapeutics, Inc., Acorn Energy, Inc., CNS Response, Inc., FluoroPharma Medical, Inc., MYnd Analytics, Inc., Freedom Meditech, Inc., and MD Revolution, and is Chairman of the Board of privately held ComHear Inc.

Dr. Padmanabh Chivukula Chief Scientific Officer & Chief Operating Officer

Dr. Padmanabh Chivukula is the co-founder of Arcturus Therapeutics and has served as Chief Scientific Officer and Chief Operating Officer since 2013. He leads the company's research and development activities with a strong background in nanoparticle technology. Prior to co-founding Arcturus, he held key roles at Nitto Denko Technical Corporation, including Group Leader and Chief Scientist.

Lance Kurata Chief Legal Officer

Lance Kurata has served as Chief Legal Officer of Arcturus Therapeutics since August 2020. Before joining Arcturus, he was a partner at Mintz Levin from 2006 to 2020, where he chaired the West Coast Technology Transactions Practice. He also served as a partner at Fish & Richardson and practiced corporate law at Brobeck Phleger & Harrison.

Roberta Duncan Chief Strategy Officer

Roberta Duncan is the Chief Strategy Officer at Arcturus Therapeutics, bringing over 26 years of experience in the biopharma industry across start-ups, small biotech, pharma, and CROs. She currently serves as the Board Vice-Chair of the Alliance for mRNA Medicines (AMM) and previously led CSL's enterprise-wide mRNA Program as Vice President.

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The key risks to Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) include:

  1. Clinical Trial Failures and Regulatory Setbacks: The success of Arcturus Therapeutics heavily relies on the outcomes of its clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals. The company has experienced setbacks, such as interim Phase 2 data for ARCT-032 in cystic fibrosis (CF) falling short of expectations, which led to a significant drop in stock value. Furthermore, the U.S. Biologics License Application (BLA) for their COVID-19 vaccine, KOSTAIVE, has been delayed due to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) requiring additional clinical endpoint efficacy study data. Unfavorable clinical trial results, delays in trials, or difficulties in securing regulatory approvals for its pipeline candidates (including those for rare diseases like CF and ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency) pose a critical risk to the business.
  2. Intense Competition and Market Adoption Hurdles: Arcturus operates in a highly competitive landscape for mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. In the CF market, the company faces significant competition from established players like Vertex Pharmaceuticals, which already dominates with therapies such as Trikafta. For OTC deficiency, other advanced therapeutic modalities, including gene therapies, are also under development by competitors. Additionally, while KOSTAIVE has received regulatory approval in the EU, the COVID-19 vaccine market is mature and declining, making it challenging to generate substantial revenue from this product. The unpredictable nature of the market for pandemic influenza vaccines (like their H5N1 candidate) also presents market adoption risks.
  3. Financial Challenges, Cash Burn, and Potential for Dilution: Arcturus Therapeutics has faced ongoing financial challenges, including declining revenues and consistent net losses. The company's revenue streams are significantly influenced by milestone payments from collaborations, such as the CSL Seqirus partnership, which can lead to volatility. While Arcturus has taken steps to extend its cash runway into 2028 through cost-cutting and strategic reallocation of resources, high research and development (R&D) expenses for its multiple programs continue to contribute to cash burn. Should the company not achieve profitability before its cash runway depletes, there is a risk of having to resort to equity raises or debt, which could lead to dilution for existing shareholders.

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Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) is focused on developing messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines for infectious diseases and rare diseases, with key product candidates targeting Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) Deficiency, Cystic Fibrosis (CF), COVID-19, and Influenza.

The addressable markets for their main products or services are as follows:

  • ARCT-810 (Ornithine Transcarbamylase Deficiency): The global market for ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency treatment was valued at USD 774.2 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1.2 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the global market was approximately USD 1.2 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 2.3 billion by 2032. The North American market alone for OTC deficiency treatment was valued at USD 315.6 million in 2024. Across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan), the market reached USD 689.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,044.7 million by 2035.
  • ARCT-032 (Cystic Fibrosis): The global cystic fibrosis market was valued at USD 10.36 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 56.72 billion by 2032. Another report estimated the global cystic fibrosis therapeutics market at USD 10.34 billion in 2024, growing to approximately USD 39.15 billion by 2034. The U.S. cystic fibrosis market was valued at USD 3.92 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 21.73 billion by 2032. The market for cystic fibrosis across the top 7 markets (US, EU4, UK, and Japan) was valued at USD 11,986.4 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 74,535.4 million by 2035.
  • KOSTAIVE (ARCT-154) (COVID-19 Vaccine): The global COVID-19 vaccine market was valued at USD 7.68 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 14.32 billion by 2033. Other estimates place the global COVID-19 vaccine market at US$ 13.43 billion in 2024, expected to reach US$ 29.98 billion by 2033. However, some projections indicate a decline, with the market at USD 13.71 billion in 2025 and projected to contract to USD 8.28 billion by 2030.
  • LUNAR-FLU (ARCT-2138) / ARCT-2304 (Influenza Vaccine): The global influenza vaccine market was valued at USD 7.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 12.8 billion by 2033. Another report valued the global market at USD 8.37 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 18.02 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market, holding over 53.4% of the market share in 2024. The U.S. influenza vaccine market alone was valued at USD 2.76 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 6.06 billion by 2034.

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Arcturus Therapeutics (ARCT) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:

  1. Commercialization and Expansion of KOSTAIVE® (COVID-19 Vaccine): Arcturus Therapeutics expects revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine, KOSTAIVE®, with regulatory submissions and approvals underway in key markets. A Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) was filed by CSL to the UK Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in Q2 2025, with approval expected by September 2025. Additionally, NDA applications were filed by Meiji Seika Pharma to Japan's Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA) in H1 2025, with anticipated approvals in Q3/Q4 2025. A U.S. Biologics License Application (BLA) filing to the FDA is on track for Q3 2025, with an approval decision expected in 2026.

  2. Advancement of Cystic Fibrosis (ARCT-032) Therapeutic: The company is progressing with its ARCT-032 program for cystic fibrosis. Phase 2 interim data from the first nine participants is expected in September 2025, and the Phase 2 trial is projected to complete enrollment by the end of 2025. Meetings with the FDA and other regulatory agencies to discuss Phase 2 data and plans for pivotal trials are anticipated in the first half of 2026. Successful progression through clinical trials and potential regulatory approval would open a significant new market for Arcturus.

  3. Development of Ornithine Transcarbamylase (OTC) Deficiency Therapeutic (ARCT-810): Arcturus is also advancing ARCT-810 for OTC deficiency. The company has reported positive interim Phase 2 data, and alignment with regulatory agencies on the Phase 3 trial design is expected in the first half of 2026. The successful development and commercialization of ARCT-810 would introduce another novel therapeutic to the market.

  4. Strategic Alliances and Collaboration Revenue: Arcturus maintains ongoing global collaborations, including with CSL Seqirus for innovative mRNA vaccines and a joint venture in Japan, ARCALIS, focused on manufacturing mRNA vaccines and therapeutics. The company's revenue streams from these partnerships include license fees, consulting and technology transfer fees, reservation fees, and collaborative payments from research and development arrangements. An initial European Union (EU) approval milestone payment from the partnership with CSL was received in Q1 2025. Future milestone payments and potential profit-sharing agreements from these collaborations are expected to contribute to revenue growth.

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Share Issuance

  • In July 2020, Arcturus Therapeutics priced a public offering of 3,264,151 shares of common stock at $53.00 per share, generating approximately $173.0 million in gross proceeds.
  • In April 2020, the company completed a public offering of 4,735,297 shares of common stock at $17.00 per share, including the full exercise of the underwriters' option, resulting in total gross proceeds of approximately $80.5 million.
  • The net proceeds from these offerings were intended for working capital, general corporate purposes, and to advance the company's LUNAR-COV19 vaccine candidate, LUNAR-OTC, and other preclinical programs into clinical development.

Inbound Investments

  • Arcturus Therapeutics has established ongoing global collaborations for innovative mRNA vaccines with CSL Seqirus and a joint venture in Japan, ARCALIS, focused on the manufacture of mRNA vaccines and therapeutics.
  • In the first quarter of 2025, Arcturus received an initial milestone payment from CSL related to the EU approval of KOSTAIVE, with an additional milestone payment anticipated.
  • As of March 31, 2025, the company reported a cash balance of $273.8 million, with its cash runway extended into 2028, supported by strong partnership funding.

Outbound Investments

  • Arcturus Therapeutics has not made any significant investments or acquisitions in other companies.

Capital Expenditures

  • Research and development expenses, which include facility-related expenses and laboratory supplies, were $64.5 million for the first six months of 2025, a decrease from $112.2 million in the same period of 2024. This reduction was primarily due to lower manufacturing and clinical costs for the KOSTAIVE program as it moved towards commercialization, and reduced facilities and equipment costs, partially offset by increased clinical expenses for the cystic fibrosis program.
  • For the first quarter of 2025, research and development expenses were $34.9 million, down from $53.6 million in the comparable period of 2024. This decrease was mainly driven by lower manufacturing costs for KOSTAIVE, LUNAR-FLU, and BARDA programs, balanced by increased manufacturing and clinical costs for the LUNAR-CF and LUNAR-OTC programs.
  • The company anticipates additional quarterly declines in research and development expenses during the second half of fiscal year 2025.

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Financials

ARCTMRNAVRTXALNYSRPTNTLAMedian
NameArcturus.Moderna Vertex P.Alnylam .Sarepta .Intellia. 
Mkt Price7.3242.02466.01351.8020.3512.9931.19
Mkt Cap0.216.4119.146.22.01.49.2
Rev LTM852,20211,7233,2102,414582,308
Op Inc LTM-78-3,463-92265-86-479-89
FCF LTM-59-2,6633,337221-389-413-224
FCF 3Y Avg6-3,0922,06457-495-394-194
CFO LTM-58-1,9783,718266-245-411-151
CFO 3Y Avg8-2,4212,419108-379-386-185

Growth & Margins

ARCTMRNAVRTXALNYSRPTNTLAMedian
NameArcturus.Moderna Vertex P.Alnylam .Sarepta .Intellia. 
Rev Chg LTM-40.2%-56.4%10.3%53.2%47.1%33.5%21.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg125.6%-52.3%10.5%51.4%40.6%5.8%25.5%
Rev Chg Q-63.5%-46.0%11.0%149.3%-14.5%51.3%-1.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-22.5%-27.9%2.7%30.4%-2.7%8.8%-0.0%
Op Mgn LTM-92.0%-157.3%-0.8%8.2%-3.6%-832.2%-47.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-42.5%-79.9%26.2%-7.1%-11.6%-1,006.0%-27.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-25.9%-50.1%1.0%15.6%-3.5%136.5%-1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-68.5%-89.8%31.7%8.3%-10.1%-713.8%-39.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-20.6%-58.7%23.1%3.7%-26.8%-765.6%-23.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-68.9%-120.9%28.5%6.9%-16.1%-717.3%-42.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-21.8%-76.1%19.8%1.3%-33.7%-782.2%-27.7%

Valuation

ARCTMRNAVRTXALNYSRPTNTLAMedian
NameArcturus.Moderna Vertex P.Alnylam .Sarepta .Intellia. 
Mkt Cap0.216.4119.146.22.01.49.2
P/S2.37.410.214.40.824.98.8
P/EBIT-3.1-5.226.7354.8-8.9-3.0-3.1
P/E-3.0-5.332.41,061.5-7.5-3.2-3.1
P/CFO-3.4-8.332.0173.9-8.3-3.5-3.4
Total Yield-33.5%-18.9%3.1%0.1%-13.4%-31.0%-16.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.8%-18.3%1.9%0.1%-9.8%-29.2%-10.3%
D/E0.10.00.00.00.60.10.1
Net D/E-0.8-0.2-0.0-0.00.2-0.3-0.1

Returns

ARCTMRNAVRTXALNYSRPTNTLAMedian
NameArcturus.Moderna Vertex P.Alnylam .Sarepta .Intellia. 
1M Rtn17.1%36.2%3.1%-12.1%-4.5%41.0%10.1%
3M Rtn-18.0%76.9%10.5%-16.9%25.6%6.5%8.5%
6M Rtn-38.1%53.0%24.3%-16.0%21.5%12.2%16.8%
12M Rtn-53.7%15.0%-0.9%28.1%-82.1%36.2%7.0%
3Y Rtn-66.7%-75.7%54.8%50.7%-82.9%-70.0%-68.3%
1M Excs Rtn16.3%35.3%2.2%-13.0%-5.4%40.2%9.2%
3M Excs Rtn-27.7%53.6%8.4%-24.0%-16.4%1.8%-7.3%
6M Excs Rtn-49.3%42.8%-10.6%-25.4%9.7%-2.1%-6.3%
12M Excs Rtn-71.4%-7.9%-13.6%15.1%-96.7%11.4%-10.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-134.4%-147.5%-25.0%-17.9%-153.6%-138.4%-136.4%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discovery, development and commercialization of messenger RNA medicines167  10 
Collaboration revenue 20612 21
Grant revenue 0   
Total167206121021


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Discovery, development and commercialization of messenger RNA medicines-30    
Total-30    


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$7.32 
Market Cap ($ Bil)0.2 
First Trading Date05/22/2013 
Distance from 52W High-68.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$6.93$12.46
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA5.7%-41.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility62.0%97.3%
Downside Capture345.16327.79
Upside Capture191.86201.11
Correlation (SPY)41.8%31.5%
ARCT Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.442.132.302.951.601.69
Up Beta-0.80-0.232.122.511.251.22
Down Beta0.831.251.541.690.671.11
Up Capture456%415%171%347%380%1089%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days12212659113356
Down Capture49%249%298%320%166%113%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days8193364134392

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARCT
ARCT-56.2%97.5%-0.35-
Sector ETF (XLV)6.3%17.2%0.2027.2%
Equity (SPY)15.6%19.2%0.6331.5%
Gold (GLD)77.2%24.5%2.301.7%
Commodities (DBC)10.0%16.5%0.40-1.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%16.5%-0.0023.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-23.4%40.3%-0.5620.4%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARCT
ARCT-35.6%92.9%-0.05-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.8%14.4%0.3629.8%
Equity (SPY)14.5%17.0%0.6835.5%
Gold (GLD)21.5%16.8%1.045.4%
Commodities (DBC)12.0%18.9%0.51-0.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1629.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)20.9%57.5%0.5616.3%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ARCT
ARCT-14.6%95.9%0.30-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.4%16.6%0.5221.4%
Equity (SPY)15.6%17.9%0.7523.6%
Gold (GLD)15.6%15.5%0.846.0%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%17.6%0.393.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.8%0.2415.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)69.9%66.5%1.098.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 123120250.4%
Average Daily Volume0.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest12.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity27.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares26.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/10/2025-1.3%-23.0%-14.4%
8/11/202530.7%57.2%57.9%
3/6/2025-8.9%-13.0%-43.0%
11/7/20244.7%-2.1%0.5%
8/5/20240.2%-4.2%-3.7%
3/7/2024-0.9%-2.2%-16.8%
11/14/202316.1%18.2%44.5%
8/7/2023-19.2%-7.3%0.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive7712
# Negative13138
Median Positive13.8%18.2%17.6%
Median Negative-6.3%-8.1%-18.4%
Max Positive30.7%74.4%157.3%
Max Negative-24.4%-25.4%-43.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202511/12/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/12/202510-Q
12/31/202403/06/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/05/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202303/14/202410-K
09/30/202311/14/202310-Q
06/30/202308/07/202310-Q
03/31/202305/09/202310-Q
12/31/202203/29/202310-K
09/30/202211/09/202210-Q
06/30/202208/09/202210-Q
03/31/202205/09/202210-Q
12/31/202103/01/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Sassine, AndyChief Financial OfficerDirectBuy819202516.561,23820,4993,671,968Form