Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 5.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -51%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the movement of A.O. Smith (AOS) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025:

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results: A.O. Smith reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 28, 2025, which showed a 15% increase in earnings per share (EPS) to $0.94, exceeding analyst expectations. However, sales of $943 million were slightly below the forecasted $947.1 million. This mixed performance led to a negative reaction in the stock, which traded down 2.35% in pre-market.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AOS Return17%59%-32%47%-16%3%61%
Peers Return22%35%-22%50%19%9%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AOS Win Rate50%75%33%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%72%33%60%58%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AOS Max Drawdown-27%-3%-43%0%-16%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-37%-6%-40%-5%-7%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WTS, XYL, PNR, IR, LII. See AOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven524 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven75 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven665 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-58.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven379 days1480 days

Compare to CARR, FIX, WSO, WTS, WHR


In The Past

A.O. Smith's stock fell -43.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -43.4% loss requires a 76.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About A.O. Smith (AOS)

Better Bets than A.O. Smith (AOS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%
AOS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
29.3%29.7%-2.0%
AOS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.0%19.2%-16.5%
AOS_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
43.5%82.4%-5.8%
AOS_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%13.6%-4.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.9%22.9%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.7%8.7%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.8%5.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.8%1.8%0.0%
AOS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
29.3%29.7%-2.0%
AOS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.0%19.2%-16.5%
AOS_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
43.5%82.4%-5.8%
AOS_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%13.6%-4.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for A.O. Smith

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Mkt Price68.64279.13137.17105.9281.60505.09121.54
Mkt Cap9.69.433.417.332.317.717.5
Rev LTM3,8302,3548,8944,1287,4585,3454,737
Op Inc LTM7204471,2328641,4771,062963
FCF LTM5723449257831,250534677
FCF 3Y Avg5363187536751,200543609
CFO LTM6563871,2738501,383684767
CFO 3Y Avg6213521,0537481,328722735

Growth & Margins

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Rev Chg LTM-1.6%4.2%5.6%0.8%4.2%3.8%4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.2%6.5%18.9%0.2%9.4%5.2%5.9%
Rev Chg Q4.4%12.5%7.8%2.9%5.1%-4.8%4.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%3.0%1.9%0.7%1.3%-1.3%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM18.8%19.0%13.9%20.9%19.8%19.9%19.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.2%17.8%12.1%18.8%19.1%18.3%18.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.1%0.6%0.5%-0.1%0.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM17.1%16.4%14.3%20.6%18.5%12.8%16.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.2%16.0%13.0%18.2%18.7%14.0%16.1%
FCF/Rev LTM14.9%14.6%10.4%19.0%16.8%10.0%14.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.0%14.4%9.2%16.4%16.9%10.5%14.2%

Valuation

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Mkt Cap9.69.433.417.332.317.717.5
P/S2.74.04.04.44.43.54.0
P/EBIT14.421.629.422.027.817.421.8
P/E19.328.837.927.759.922.128.3
P/CFO15.724.228.221.323.627.123.9
Total Yield7.1%4.2%3.7%4.5%1.8%5.0%4.3%
Dividend Yield1.9%0.7%1.1%0.9%0.1%0.4%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%4.5%2.5%4.5%3.7%3.0%4.1%
D/E0.00.00.10.10.10.10.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.00.10.10.10.0

Returns

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
1M Rtn6.0%3.6%-3.6%1.5%8.1%7.1%4.8%
3M Rtn-4.9%-0.6%-2.8%-4.3%3.6%-7.0%-3.6%
6M Rtn8.7%17.3%9.9%10.1%1.4%-5.7%9.3%
12M Rtn-3.4%29.1%15.1%-0.2%-19.2%-23.3%-1.8%
3Y Rtn27.6%97.6%28.5%146.9%55.6%109.9%76.6%
1M Excs Rtn3.8%1.5%-7.9%-2.2%5.3%6.2%2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-9.0%-4.0%-6.2%-7.3%0.1%-11.4%-6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-5.5%3.1%-4.3%-4.1%-12.8%-19.9%-4.9%
12M Excs Rtn-17.1%14.8%-5.2%-13.9%-32.9%-34.3%-15.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-51.2%16.0%-45.5%71.2%-18.4%28.6%-1.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Water heaters and related parts2,457    
China835    
Boilers and related parts240    
Water treatment products and related parts226    
All other Rest of World122    
Inter-segment sales-27    
Single Segment 3,7543,5392,8952,993
Total3,8533,7543,5392,8952,993


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,266,753
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202513.9%
Average Daily Volume1,453,593
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.94
Basic Shares Quantity139,953,331
Short % of Basic Shares3.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-2.6%-4.3%-4.7%
7/24/20253.6%-0.8%1.0%
4/29/20253.5%6.0%-0.3%
1/30/2025-2.8%-4.7%-3.5%
10/11/2024-6.2%-8.7%-12.8%
7/23/2024-9.4%-4.9%-8.7%
4/25/2024-4.8%-4.5%-3.0%
1/30/2024-2.0%-5.2%1.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141312
# Negative101112
Median Positive3.5%4.7%11.8%
Median Negative-3.6%-4.5%-5.8%
Max Positive13.7%22.5%26.6%
Max Negative-9.4%-9.5%-12.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021