Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AOS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, A.O. Smith's (AOS) stock moved by -5.1% due to several key factors: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Report and Initial Stock Decline.

A.O. Smith's shares experienced a significant drop, falling as much as 4.3% on October 28, 2025, following the release of its third-quarter earnings report. This immediate negative market reaction was a major contributor to the overall decline in the stock price during the specified period. 2. Revenue Miss and Narrowed Full-Year Guidance.

Despite beating profit expectations, the company's Q3 2025 revenue of $943 million fell short of Wall Street's forecasts of approximately $948.1 million. Concurrently, A.O. Smith narrowed its full-year 2025 earnings outlook to a range of $3.70 to $3.85 per share (from a prior view of $3.70 to $3.90) and anticipated consolidated sales to be flat to up 1% for the year, signaling a more cautious financial outlook.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AOS Return17%59%-32%47%-16%-1%55%
Peers Return17%54%-17%47%28%17%228%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AOS Win Rate50%75%33%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate64%73%38%62%62%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AOS Max Drawdown-27%-3%-43%0%-16%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-3%-34%-6%-13%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CARR, FIX, WSO, WTS, WHR. See AOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven524 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-28.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven75 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven67.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven665 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-58.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven140.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven379 days1480 days

Compare to CARR, FIX, WSO, WTS, WHR


In The Past

A.O. Smith's stock fell -43.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -43.4% loss requires a 76.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About A.O. Smith (AOS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AOS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AOS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
29.3%29.7%-2.0%
AOS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.0%19.2%-16.5%
AOS_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
43.5%82.4%-5.8%
AOS_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%13.6%-4.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
AOS_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
29.3%29.7%-2.0%
AOS_4302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302022AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.0%19.2%-16.5%
AOS_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
43.5%82.4%-5.8%
AOS_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018AOSA.O. SmithDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.9%13.6%-4.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for A.O. Smith

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AOSCARRFIXWSOWTSWHRMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Carrier .Comfort .Watsco Watts Wa.Whirlpool 
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Growth & Margins

AOSCARRFIXWSOWTSWHRMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Carrier .Comfort .Watsco Watts Wa.Whirlpool 
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Valuation

AOSCARRFIXWSOWTSWHRMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Carrier .Comfort .Watsco Watts Wa.Whirlpool 
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Returns

AOSCARRFIXWSOWTSWHRMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Carrier .Comfort .Watsco Watts Wa.Whirlpool 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Water heaters and related parts2,457    
China835    
Boilers and related parts240    
Water treatment products and related parts226    
All other Rest of World122    
Inter-segment sales-27    
Single Segment 3,7543,5392,8952,993
Total3,8533,7543,5392,8952,993


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,745,311
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.7%
Average Daily Volume1,207,964
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.10
Basic Shares Quantity139,953,331
Short % of Basic Shares2.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241023202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021