A.O. Smith (AOS)


Market Price (10/31/2026): $63.06 | Market Cap: $8.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

A.O. Smith (AOS)


Market Price (10/31/2026): $63.06
Market Cap: $8.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.1 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2%

Key risks
AOS key risks include [1] challenges in the Chinese market due to weak consumer demand and [2] a softening residential market in North America.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, FCF Yield is 6.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.1 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -82%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2%
7 Key risks
AOS key risks include [1] challenges in the Chinese market due to weak consumer demand and [2] a softening residential market in North America.

AOS in ETFs

Weight = AOS's share of each fund

SPY0.01%
VOO0.01%
IVV0.01%
VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
RSP0.21%
VIG0.03%
+27 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/29/2026

A.O. Smith (AOS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Financial Performance and Updated Guidance.

A.O. Smith's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.90, but quarterly revenue of $940.5 million missed the $960.2 million estimate and was essentially flat year-over-year. This mixed financial outcome, combined with updated full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (excluding the China business) of $3.42-$3.52, following an earlier narrowing in fiscal Q2 2026 to $3.70-$3.85, indicated both operational strengths and persistent market challenges, contributing to a balanced investor sentiment and a largely stable stock price.

2. Strategic Exit from Majority China Business Offset by Persistent Regional Weakness.

On October 27, 2026, A.O. Smith announced definitive agreements to divest an 81% interest in its China business for approximately $400 million, with estimated after-tax proceeds of roughly $350 million primarily designated for share repurchases. This strategic simplification is projected to enhance EBIT margins by approximately 200 basis points. However, the long-term positive implications of this divestiture were balanced by the ongoing weakness in the Rest of World segment, primarily driven by China, which experienced a 7% sales decrease in fiscal Q3 2026 and a 19% decrease in fiscal Q2 2026 due to soft consumer demand.

Show more
Updated on 10/29/2026

A.O. Smith (AOS) stock has remained largely at the same level since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Mixed Financial Performance and Updated Guidance.

A.O. Smith's fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93 surpassed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.90, but quarterly revenue of $940.5 million missed the $960.2 million estimate and was essentially flat year-over-year. This mixed financial outcome, combined with updated full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (excluding the China business) of $3.42-$3.52, following an earlier narrowing in fiscal Q2 2026 to $3.70-$3.85, indicated both operational strengths and persistent market challenges, contributing to a balanced investor sentiment and a largely stable stock price.

2. Strategic Exit from Majority China Business Offset by Persistent Regional Weakness.

On October 27, 2026, A.O. Smith announced definitive agreements to divest an 81% interest in its China business for approximately $400 million, with estimated after-tax proceeds of roughly $350 million primarily designated for share repurchases. This strategic simplification is projected to enhance EBIT margins by approximately 200 basis points. However, the long-term positive implications of this divestiture were balanced by the ongoing weakness in the Rest of World segment, primarily driven by China, which experienced a 7% sales decrease in fiscal Q3 2026 and a 19% decrease in fiscal Q2 2026 due to soft consumer demand.

3. Resilient North America Segment Juxtaposed with Rising Input Costs.

The North America segment demonstrated resilience with a 3% sales increase in fiscal Q3 2026, largely attributed to the Leonard Valve acquisition and robust 13% growth in boiler sales; full-year boiler sales guidance was subsequently raised to 10-12% growth. Despite this strength, the segment faced headwinds from lower residential water heater volumes and substantial inflationary pressures from rising input costs, specifically steel and freight, which are expected to increase approximately 15% for the full year and add about 5% to North American cost of goods sold. The company's implementation of price increases, including up to 9.5% on water heater products effective December, aims to mitigate these costs, but with a typical lag in full realization.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.8% change in AOS stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610302026Change
Stock Price ($)61.9763.071.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,8123,803-0.2%
Net Income Margin (%)13.8%13.0%-6.0%
P/E Multiple16.217.36.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1381352.2%
Cumulative Contribution1.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AOS1.8% 
Market (SPY)1.2%24.2%
Sector (XLI)-9.6%46.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -2.6% change in AOS stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)331202610302026Change
Stock Price ($)64.7863.07-2.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,8303,803-0.7%
Net Income Margin (%)14.3%13.0%-8.8%
P/E Multiple16.517.34.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1391352.7%
Cumulative Contribution-2.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AOS-2.6% 
Market (SPY)16.5%30.2%
Sector (XLI)3.8%55.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -11.6% change in AOS stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202510302026Change
Stock Price ($)71.3863.07-11.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7903,8030.3%
Net Income Margin (%)13.7%13.0%-4.9%
P/E Multiple19.517.3-11.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1421354.6%
Cumulative Contribution-11.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AOS-11.6% 
Market (SPY)14.4%32.4%
Sector (XLI)9.5%58.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 1.7% change in AOS stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 77.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)930202310302026Change
Stock Price ($)62.0463.071.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7383,8031.7%
Net Income Margin (%)7.3%13.0%77.7%
P/E Multiple34.117.3-49.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)15013511.2%
Cumulative Contribution1.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AOS1.7% 
Market (SPY)82.9%39.7%
Sector (XLI)71.7%57.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AOS Return59%-32%47%-16%0%-4%29%
Peers Return35%-22%50%19%6%-14%72%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AOS Win Rate75%33%58%42%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate72%33%60%58%57%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AOS Max Drawdown-17%-43%-16%-25%-18%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-40%-18%-15%-26%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTS, XYL, PNR, IR, LII. See AOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAOSS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-11.5%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven13.0%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven22 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-13.9%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven16.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven50 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven440 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-21.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven40 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven69 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-11.3%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.8%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven32 days6 days

Compare to WTS, XYL, PNR, IR, LII

In The Past

A.O. Smith's stock fell -11.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAOSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-41.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.8%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven440 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-21.2%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven40 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven69 days105 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-31.6%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.2%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven123 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-41.4%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven130 days1085 days

Compare to WTS, XYL, PNR, IR, LII

In The Past

A.O. Smith's stock fell -11.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About A.O. Smith (AOS)

A.O. Smith Corporation is a global leader in manufacturing and marketing comprehensive water heating and water treatment solutions. The company serves both residential and commercial sectors across North America, China, Europe, and India. Its core offerings include a wide array of gas, heat pump, and electric water heaters, commercial and residential boilers, and various water treatment products.

The company's water heating portfolio encompasses standard water heaters for homes and businesses, along with specialized solutions like commercial boilers for large institutions (hospitals, schools), residential boilers, and advanced options such as heat pumps, electric wall-hung, gas tankless, combi-boiler, and solar water heaters. Complementing this, A.O. Smith provides a robust suite of water treatment products, including point-of-entry softeners, whole-home filtration systems, and point-of-use carbon and reverse osmosis filters. Key brands include A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, and Aquasana.

A.O. Smith caters to a diverse customer base, from individual homeowners and apartment dwellers to a wide range of commercial clients such as restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, and hospitals. Products are distributed through established channels, including independent wholesale plumbing distributors and retail chains like hardware and home centers. Additionally, the company leverages e-commerce to directly offer Aquasana branded water treatment products to consumers and through other online retailers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for A.O. Smith:

  • A.O. Smith is like Carrier or Trane for water heating and treatment systems.
  • A.O. Smith is like the specialized Whirlpool for water heaters, boilers, and purification.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Residential Water Heaters: Manufactures gas, heat pump, and electric water heaters for homes.
  • Commercial Water Heaters: Produces water heaters for use in restaurants, hotels, office buildings, and other businesses.
  • Boilers (Residential & Commercial): Offers boilers for heating homes and large commercial buildings.
  • Water Treatment Products: Provides a range of solutions including water softeners, whole-home filtration, point-of-use, and reverse osmosis systems.
  • Specialty Heaters: Includes commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool/spa heaters, heat pumps, electric wall-hung, gas tankless, and combi-boiler water heaters.
  • Tanks and Components: Supplies expansion tanks and other related parts for water heating and treatment systems.

AI Analysis | Feedback

A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) primarily sells its products to other companies (B2B) through various distribution channels rather than directly to individuals, with a noted exception for its Aquasana brand.

Based on the provided company description, A. O. Smith's major direct customers are the organizations that purchase its products for resale or further distribution. These include:

  • Independent Wholesale Plumbing Distributors: These companies serve as crucial intermediaries, purchasing A. O. Smith's water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products in bulk. They then distribute and sell these products to a wide network of plumbers, contractors, and commercial clients for installation in residential, commercial (e.g., restaurants, hotels, hospitals), and industrial settings.
  • Retail Hardware and Home Center Chains: A. O. Smith supplies its products to these large retail companies, which then sell directly to end-consumers (both individuals undertaking DIY projects and small contractors) through their physical stores. While specific company names are not provided in the background, these typically include major hardware and home improvement retailers.
  • Online Retailers: For certain products, particularly those under the Aquasana brand, A. O. Smith sells to various online retailers who then offer these products directly to consumers via e-commerce platforms. A. O. Smith also engages in direct-to-consumer sales for its Aquasana brand through its own e-commerce channels.

The provided background description does not name specific public customer companies or their symbols.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Stephen M. Shafer, President and Chief Executive Officer

Stephen Shafer was named President and Chief Executive Officer of A. O. Smith Corporation on July 1, 2025. He is responsible for the company's global operations, strategy development and implementation, profitability, and shareholder return. Shafer joined A. O. Smith as President and Chief Operating Officer in March 2024. Prior to A. O. Smith, he worked at 3M Company from 2010 to 2024, holding various positions with increasing responsibilities in multiple business units in the U.S. and China, with his most recent role being president of the Automotive and Aerospace Solutions Division. His career also includes roles at McKinsey & Company and Ford Motor Company, focusing on manufacturing, supply chain, and operational improvement.

Charles T. Lauber, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Chuck Lauber was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of A. O. Smith in May 2019, overseeing all financial functions of the company, including treasury, controllership, cash management, and investor relations. He joined A. O. Smith in December 1999 as corporate director of tax and audit and has since held significant leadership roles within corporate and business unit finance and accounting. Before joining A. O. Smith, Lauber held various auditing and management positions with Ernst & Young LLP from 1984 to 1999, specializing in assurance services and M&A due diligence practices. He holds a Bachelor of Science in accounting from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and a Master of Business Administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Lauber serves on the board of directors of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and H.B. Fuller.

Kevin J. Wheeler, Executive Chairman

Kevin Wheeler transitioned from Chairman and Chief Executive Officer to Executive Chairman of the A. O. Smith Corporation Board of Directors on July 1, 2025. In this role, he continues to lead the company's Board and remains actively involved in strategic development, mergers and acquisitions, investor relations, and executive talent development. Wheeler was named Chairman of the board in May 2020 and Chief Executive Officer in September 2018. He joined A. O. Smith in 1994 as a regional sales manager. During his 31-year tenure with the company, he has held numerous senior leadership positions, including managing director of European operations, vice president-international overseeing European and Asian operations, and president of the North America, India, and Europe water heating businesses. Under his leadership as CEO, A. O. Smith acquired Giant Factories, a Canadian water heater manufacturer, and six water treatment companies, including one in India. Prior to joining A. O. Smith, he held sales management positions at Bradford White Corporation and American Water Heater Company.

James F. Stern, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, Strategy and Secretary

James F. Stern was named Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, Strategy and Secretary in October 2025. In this role, he focuses on corporate development and strategy while also maintaining responsibility for government, industry, and regulatory affairs, and continues his role as secretary. He previously served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of A. O. Smith Corporation since June 2007. Stern joined A. O. Smith after 15 years as a partner at Foley & Lardner LLP, where he specialized in mergers and acquisitions and corporate practice. He was also an associate with Latham & Watkins LLP. Stern serves on the board of directors of Badger Meter, Inc. He earned a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Notre Dame and a Juris Doctorate from Northwestern University School of Law.

Paul Jones, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer

Paul Jones was appointed Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer, effective October 1, 2025, where he oversees the company's legal, compliance, and intellectual property activities globally. He joined A. O. Smith in 2023 as Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy. Jones is an accomplished leader with 28 years of legal experience, including more than 17 years as a general counsel during his career. Before joining A. O. Smith, he led legal teams at Regal-Beloit Corp., Harley-Davidson Inc., and Marquette University. Earlier in his career, Jones was a partner at Foley & Lardner in Milwaukee.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to A. O. Smith's business include its exposure to the economic downturn in China, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the need to adapt to evolving regulatory standards.

  1. Economic Headwinds in China: A. O. Smith's "Rest of World" segment, heavily influenced by its operations in China, faces significant strategic and operational risks due to persistent economic headwinds, weak consumer confidence, and the cessation of government stimulus programs. The company has revised its 2025 China sales outlook downward, anticipating a decline of approximately 10% in local currency, which directly impacts its consolidated sales projections. This market's challenges have transformed a historical growth engine into a liability, contributing to stagnant top-line revenue growth for the company.
  2. Sensitivity to Raw Material Prices: The company's profitability and margins are susceptible to volatility in raw material costs, particularly steel. Higher material costs have historically impacted segment earnings and margins. While some customers may be contractually obliged to accept price changes based on steel price fluctuations, managing these input costs remains a continuous challenge for maintaining profitability.
  3. Evolving Regulatory Standards: A. O. Smith must continuously adapt its product offerings to meet new minimum efficiency standards. For instance, new regulations for commercial water heaters are set for October 2026, and for residential water heaters by May 2029. These changes necessitate ongoing innovation and potential investment in product development to ensure compliance and maintain market competitiveness. Additionally, changes or rollbacks in energy efficiency legislation can alter the competitive landscape, as previously seen when the removal of certain regulations increased competition by removing adjustment requirements for competitors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

For A.O. Smith (AOS), the addressable markets for their main products and services are sized across various regions, primarily North America and globally, as follows:

Water Heaters

  • Global Water Heater Market: The global water heater market was estimated at USD 31.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 46.39 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2026 to 2033. Another estimate valued the global market at USD 33.7 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to USD 57.5 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034.
  • North America Residential Water Heater Market: This market was valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.3 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of over 6%. The U.S. residential water heater market specifically generated USD 4.69 billion in revenue in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 6.77 billion by 2033.
  • North America Heat Pump Water Heater Market: This segment is projected to experience significant growth, with the U.S. market alone expected to reach a value of USD 2,117.7 million by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% during the forecast period of 2023-2030.

Boilers

  • Global Residential Boiler Market: The global residential boiler market was valued at approximately USD 8.02 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 12.95 billion by 2034. Other estimates indicate the market was valued at USD 14.16 billion in 2024, anticipating growth to USD 23.92 billion by 2033.
  • North America Residential Boiler Market: This market was estimated at USD 2.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 6.2 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.6%.
  • Global Commercial Boiler Market: The global commercial boiler market was valued at USD 10.71 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 14.88 billion by 2032. Another source estimated the market at USD 4.77 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 6.83 billion by 2034.
  • North America Commercial Boiler Market: This market was valued at USD 2.85 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to reach USD 5.00 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.47%. The North America Commercial Electric Boiler Market alone was valued at USD 270.86 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1285.37 million by 2034, with a robust CAGR of 16.85%.

Water Treatment Products

  • Global Water Treatment Systems Market: The global water treatment systems market size was estimated at USD 45.07 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 88.02 billion by 2033. Similarly, the global water treatment market size was valued at USD 69.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 128.06 billion by 2033.
  • North America Water Treatment System Market: This market generated a revenue of USD 9.21 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 16.63 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.8%.
  • North America Household Water Treatment System Market: This market was valued at USD 4.65 billion in 2022 and is projected to exceed USD 8.76 billion by 2032.
  • North America Point-of-Entry Water Treatment Systems Market: This specific segment was valued at USD 2.15 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach approximately USD 3.40 billion by 2033.

AI Analysis | Feedback

A. O. Smith (AOS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:

  1. Growth in North America Commercial Water Heaters and Boilers: The company anticipates continued strength in its North American commercial segment, particularly for water heaters and boilers. This growth is expected to be fueled by pricing actions, higher volumes, and a demand for more efficient products, further supported by upcoming regulatory changes that favor higher-efficiency technologies.
  2. Expansion in the India Market: A. O. Smith projects sustained double-digit sales growth in India, identifying it as a significant long-term revenue growth opportunity. This market is seen as a key area for international expansion and profitable growth.
  3. Growth in North America Water Treatment Products: The company expects a notable increase in its North American water treatment sales, with projections of 10%-12% growth. This is driven by price capture, the adoption of higher-efficiency technologies, and strategic focus on priority channels such as dealer, e-commerce, and direct-to-consumer.
  4. Strategic Acquisitions: Future revenue will be bolstered by strategic acquisitions, exemplified by the recent acquisition of Leonard Valve in January 2026. This acquisition is anticipated to contribute approximately $70 million in sales for 2026 and serve as a foundation for a broader water management platform.
  5. Strategic Pricing Actions: A. O. Smith consistently leverages strategic pricing actions across its product categories, particularly in North America, to drive sales growth and expand margins. These actions have been noted as a significant contributor to the company's financial performance.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • A. O. Smith repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $400.8 million in 2025. The company expects to repurchase approximately $200 million worth of shares in 2026.
  • In the first nine months of 2025, the company repurchased 5 million shares for $335.4 million.
  • In January 2026, the board of directors increased the number of shares authorized for repurchase by an additional 5 million shares.

Share Issuance

  • No significant information regarding the dollar amount of shares issued for capital raising purposes was identified within the last 3-5 years.

Inbound Investments

  • No significant information regarding large investments made in the company by third-parties was identified within the last 3-5 years.

Outbound Investments

  • In January 2026, A. O. Smith completed the acquisition of LVC Holdco LLC (Leonard Valve) for $470 million, enhancing its water heating, boiler offerings, and presence in the water management market.
  • In November 2024, the company acquired the Pureit business from Unilever to expand its water treatment product offerings and strengthen its position in India. Pureit contributed $54 million to sales in 2025.
  • Strategic acquisitions made between 2021 and 2024 include Giant Factories for $192 million in October 2021, Master Water in July 2021, Atlantic Filter in June 2022, and Impact Water Products in March 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • A. O. Smith's capital expenditures were $71 million in 2025 and $108 million in 2024.
  • The company projects capital expenditures of $85 million for 2026.
  • Capital expenditures are focused on organic growth, acquisitions, and innovation to drive long-term value creation.

Better Bets vs. A.O. Smith (AOS)

Peer Outperformance in Building Products

AOS has trailed 71% of its 31 Building Products peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are GFF, SSD and BCC. Building Products ranks 9th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Building Products constituents that AOS has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
54%
of 35 industry peers · -2.8% return
3Y
42%
of 33 industry peers · -4.1% return
5Y
29%
of 31 industry peers · -5.0% return
Building Products peers with revenue growth within 4pp of AOS's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
AOS A.O. Smith 0.0% 17.3x -2.8%-4.1%-5.0% —
GFF Griffon 1.6% 24.8x 36.6%160.7%362.7% +368pp
SSD Simpson Manufacturing 3.9% 20.9x 11.4%48.0%89.4% +94pp
BCC Boise Cascade -3.3% 26.3x 15.3%-6.2%78.9% +84pp
OC Owens-Corning 2.6% -14.5x -0.3%13.5%42.8% +48pp
MAS Masco -1.4% 17.1x 26.4%62.3%34.4% +39pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Building Products is AOS's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Marine Transportation 5 55.5%57.8%159.8% MATX 186% · KEX 175%
Construction & Engineering 29 -6.3%106.7%152.2% STRL 1339% · FIX 1275% · AGX 809%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 13.4%67.0%104.9% ALSN 249% · CAT 231% · WAB 217%
Aerospace & Defense 52 -10.2%63.7%67.6% ATI 929% · FTAI 906% · HWM 581%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 22.0%43.3%61.7% DXPE 429% · URI 221% · AIT 215%
Diversified Support Services 34 16.8%43.6%35.8% CXW 259% · OPLN 166% · CACI 135%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 72 2.5%50.4%35.8% CRS 865% · MLI 344% · SYM 280%
Rail Transportation 7 32.3%58.6%29.9% CSX 54% · UNP 41% · NSC 30%
Building Products ← 32 -6.7%15.1%22.5% GFF 363% · TT 141% · JCI 124%
Electrical Components & Equipment 37 -6.3%79.7%17.1% POWL 1863% · VRT 810% · BE 550%
Cargo Ground Transportation 16 36.2%6.3%11.9% R 275% · XPO 263% · ARCB 43%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 16.3%5.5%2.4% CSW 111% · DD 85% · CSL 78%
Office Services & Supplies 9 29.6%20.6%-9.3% PBI 186% · TILE 161% · HNI 55%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -19.7%0.1%-15.9% EXLS 69% · BR 10% · G -13%
Security & Alarm Services 9 -51.5%24.2%-17.6% BCO 58%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 16 8.3%-4.2%-19.6% DE 111% · TTC 23% · AGCO 5%
Environmental & Facilities Services 29 -30.8%33.9%-25.0% GEO 249% · CLH 168% · RSG 93%
Research & Consulting Services 13 8.7%-12.8%-25.4% HURN 288% · FCN 27% · BAH 12%
Passenger Airlines 11 -2.5%51.6%-32.4% LTM 2856% · UAL 126% · DAL 113%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -20.4%50.8%-34.4% UBER 49% · CAR -34% · LYFT -65%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -19.0%-9.0%-39.3% FDX 84% · EXPD 71% · CHRW 45%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 20.9%-8.2%-42.8% ADP 46% · FA 28% · PAYX 6%
Airport Services 4 -52.8%-59.3%-85.9% JOBY -44%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Mkt Price63.06350.0093.2866.2780.01343.9086.65
Mkt Cap8.511.721.710.630.911.811.8
Rev LTM3,8032,6779,0593,9668,0525,4484,707
Op Inc LTM6915211,4558531,5221,060956
FCF LTM5623499216471,517836741
FCF 3Y Avg5393248917181,358687703
CFO LTM6123981,2727241,642989857
CFO 3Y Avg6203651,2297911,492864828

Growth & Margins

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.7%17.1%1.9%-3.9%8.0%1.9%1.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg0.0%10.5%10.7%-1.3%6.4%3.5%5.0%
Rev Chg Q-0.2%18.6%-3.0%-4.5%5.6%10.2%2.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%4.7%-0.7%-1.1%1.4%2.7%0.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM-4.1%20.7%18.1%-4.2%3.0%-3.0%-0.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-2.8%15.1%28.0%7.9%9.3%10.5%9.9%
Op Mgn LTM18.2%19.5%16.1%21.5%18.9%19.5%19.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.7%18.5%14.0%20.6%19.5%19.6%19.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.1%0.5%-0.3%0.1%-0.6%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM16.1%14.9%14.0%18.3%20.4%18.2%17.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.1%15.3%14.0%19.5%19.7%16.3%16.2%
FCF/Rev LTM14.8%13.1%10.2%16.3%18.8%15.3%15.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg14.0%13.6%10.1%17.7%18.0%12.9%13.8%

Valuation

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
Mkt Cap8.511.721.710.630.911.811.8
P/S2.24.42.42.73.82.22.5
P/Op Inc12.422.514.912.420.311.213.7
P/EBIT12.822.615.713.716.511.514.7
P/E17.330.520.117.322.315.818.7
P/CFO13.929.517.114.618.812.015.8
Total Yield8.1%3.9%6.9%7.4%4.6%7.9%7.2%
Dividend Yield2.3%0.6%1.9%1.6%0.1%1.5%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.5%3.8%3.0%5.5%4.1%4.3%4.2%
D/E0.10.00.10.20.20.20.1
Net D/E0.1-0.00.10.10.10.20.1

Returns

AOSWTSXYLPNRIRLIIMedian
NameA.O. Smi.Watts Wa.Xylem Pentair Ingersol.Lennox I. 
1M Rtn12.5%-1.2%-7.9%25.7%6.5%-3.1%2.7%
3M Rtn5.5%1.4%-19.9%1.8%-4.0%-17.0%-1.3%
6M Rtn5.8%19.7%-18.5%-15.4%2.6%-34.3%-6.4%
12M Rtn-2.8%29.1%-37.6%-37.2%1.7%-29.8%-16.3%
3Y Rtn-4.1%107.1%3.5%18.2%32.2%-4.4%10.9%
1M Excs Rtn10.9%-3.7%-8.6%24.9%5.3%-5.6%0.8%
3M Excs Rtn2.6%-1.9%-23.3%-2.6%-10.7%-22.5%-6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-1.3%12.5%-25.7%-22.6%-4.5%-41.4%-13.5%
12M Excs Rtn-13.5%16.6%-50.7%-49.9%-11.9%-41.0%-27.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-81.8%22.3%-75.5%-65.2%-49.7%-80.5%-70.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Water heaters and related parts2,4602,4422,4572,325 
China690792835839 
Boilers, related parts, and components281260240272 
Water treatment products and related parts243248226222 
All other Rest of World191127122127 
Inter-segment sales-34-51-27-31 
Single Segment    3,539
Total3,8303,8183,8533,7543,539


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20152007200120001999
North America340    
Rest of World113    
Corporate-43    
Water Systems 150   
Electric Motor Technologies  2134679
Water Systems Technologies  393534
Total41015060380113


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20152014201320122011
North America1,3811,3581,2991,3061,319
Corporate721633   
Rest of World544524525420342
Corporate expense  568  
Inter-segment   539687
Total2,6462,5152,3922,2652,349


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$63.07 
Market Cap ($ Bil)8.5 
First Trading Date09/07/1984 
Distance from 52W High-20.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$58.63$62.63
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA7.6%0.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility28.1%27.5%
Downside Capture115.4584.79
Upside Capture100.7966.44
Correlation (S&P 500)30.0%33.3%
AOS Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.221.431.040.910.770.69
Up Beta-1.300.77-0.770.570.610.62
Down Beta1.931.321.381.180.990.50
Up Capture115%135%128%57%43%42%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days8152657117377
Down Capture199%213%187%135%98%99%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days14273869135372

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AOS
AOS-1.1%27.5%-0.06-
Sector ETF (XLI)8.9%17.3%0.3257.8%
Equity (SPY)10.9%12.8%0.5232.1%
Gold (GLD)-2.0%28.6%-0.0818.9%
Commodities (DBC)48.2%20.6%1.79-30.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)10.2%13.7%0.4545.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.3%43.5%-0.716.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AOS
AOS0.9%27.7%0.03-
Sector ETF (XLI)11.4%17.6%0.4862.8%
Equity (SPY)12.2%17.1%0.5350.8%
Gold (GLD)16.2%19.0%0.687.9%
Commodities (DBC)9.2%19.5%0.350.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.9%18.9%-0.0652.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.8%51.6%0.2819.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AOS
AOS4.5%27.3%0.19-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.2%20.1%0.5863.8%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7254.8%
Gold (GLD)11.4%16.5%0.564.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.3711.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%20.7%0.2147.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.7%66.2%1.0113.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-5.0%
Average Daily Volume1.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity135.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares8.1%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 10/31/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20264.3%  
7/30/2026-3.6%2.5%0.5%
4/30/2026-2.3%-3.6%-10.4%
1/29/20265.3%13.3%12.8%
10/28/2025-2.6%-3.8%-4.1%
7/24/20253.6%-0.8%1.0%
4/29/20253.5%6.0%-0.3%
1/30/2025-2.8%-4.7%-3.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131413
# Negative121011
Median Positive3.6%3.8%10.4%
Median Negative-2.5%-3.7%-4.8%
Max Positive13.7%22.5%26.6%
Max Negative-9.4%-5.2%-10.4%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20264.3%  
7/30/2026-3.6%2.5%0.5%
4/30/2026-2.3%-3.6%-10.4%
1/29/20265.3%13.3%12.8%
10/28/2025-2.6%-3.8%-4.1%
7/24/20253.6%-0.8%1.0%
4/29/20253.5%6.0%-0.3%
1/30/2025-2.8%-4.7%-3.5%
10/22/2024-0.5%-2.0%-8.7%
7/23/2024-9.4%-4.9%-8.7%
4/25/2024-4.8%-4.5%-3.0%
1/30/2024-2.0%-5.2%1.9%
10/27/2023-1.9%3.7%10.4%
7/27/2023-1.9%-2.9%-8.0%
4/27/20232.0%3.4%-1.1%
1/31/202313.7%13.3%12.1%
10/27/2022-0.1%4.0%19.8%
7/28/20221.2%2.0%1.4%
4/28/2022-4.4%-1.5%-4.8%
1/27/20221.5%1.0%-6.8%
10/28/202110.5%22.5%26.6%
7/29/20211.9%3.4%3.8%
4/29/20213.2%7.5%7.3%
1/28/20217.5%8.1%12.2%
10/29/20204.3%2.4%11.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131413
# Negative121011
Median Positive3.6%3.8%10.4%
Median Negative-2.5%-3.7%-4.8%
Max Positive13.7%22.5%26.6%
Max Negative-9.4%-5.2%-10.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/11/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202302/13/202410-K
09/30/202310/27/202310-Q
06/30/202307/28/202310-Q
03/31/202304/28/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/10/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/24/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/11/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202407/24/202410-Q
03/31/202404/26/202410-Q
12/31/202302/13/202410-K
09/30/202310/27/202310-Q
06/30/202307/28/202310-Q
03/31/202304/28/202310-Q
12/31/202202/14/202310-K
09/30/202210/28/202210-Q
06/30/202207/29/202210-Q
03/31/202205/02/202210-Q
12/31/202102/11/202210-K
09/30/202110/29/202110-Q
06/30/202107/30/202110-Q
03/31/202104/30/202110-Q
12/31/202002/12/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/05/202010-Q
03/31/202005/05/202010-Q
12/31/201902/24/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/30/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Net sales excluding ChinaReported3.27 Bil3.28 Bil3.29 Bil   
2026 Net sales growth, excluding ChinaReported 4.0%  1.5%RaisedGuidance: 2.5% for 2026
2026 North America water treatment estimated pre-tax restructuring and impairment expensesReported 20.00 Mil    
2026 Adjusted EPS excluding ChinaReported3.423.473.52-8.1% LoweredGuidance: 3.78 for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 300.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Sales GrowthReported2.0%2.5%3.0% -0.5%LoweredGuidance: 3.0% for 2026
2026 Diluted EPSReported3.63.683.75-2.0% LoweredGuidance: 3.75 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported3.73.783.85-1.9% LoweredGuidance: 3.85 for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 300.00 Mil 50.0% RaisedGuidance: 200.00 Mil for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Revenue GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -0.5%LoweredGuidance: 3.5% for 2026
2026 Diluted EPSReported3.63.753.9-6.2% LoweredGuidance: 4 for 2026
2026 Adjusted EPSReported3.73.854-3.8% LoweredGuidance: 4 for 2026
2026 Share RepurchasesReported 200.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 RevenueReported3.90 Bil3.96 Bil4.02 Bil3.5% Higher NewActual: 3.83 Bil for 2025
2026 Revenue GrowthReported2.0%3.5%5.0%   
2026 EPSReported3.8544.156.0% Higher NewActual: 3.78 for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuh, Darrell WSVP; President & GM LochinvarDirectSell304202674.391,10482,126163,732Form
2Schuh, Darrell WSVP; President & GM LochinvarDirectSell217202679.8935628,439263,221Form
3Stern, James FExec VP, General Counsel & SecDirectSell807202571.2417,4341,241,9537,037,115Form
4Wheeler, Kevin JExecutive ChairmanDirectSell730202571.2622,2001,581,8687,171,632Form
5Smith, Mark DDirectSell729202571.362,400171,2648,295,029Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuh, Darrell WSVP; President & GM LochinvarDirectSell304202674.391,10482,126163,732Form
2Schuh, Darrell WSVP; President & GM LochinvarDirectSell217202679.8935628,439263,221Form
3Stern, James FExec VP, General Counsel & SecDirectSell807202571.2417,4341,241,9537,037,115Form
4Wheeler, Kevin JExecutive ChairmanDirectSell730202571.2622,2001,581,8687,171,632Form
5Smith, Mark DDirectSell729202571.362,400171,2648,295,029Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 31, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd$51.7 Mil10.4%12New13F
Regents Gate Capital LLP$17.4 Mil3.7%36ADD +33.6%13F
Gates Capital Management, Inc.$71.7 Mil2.5%31New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gates Capital Management, Inc.$71.7 Mil2.5%31New13F
Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd$51.7 Mil10.4%12New13F
Regents Gate Capital LLP$17.4 Mil3.7%36ADD +33.6%13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gates Capital Management, Inc.$71.7 Mil2.5%31New13F
Talaria Asset Management Pty Ltd$51.7 Mil10.4%12New13F
Regents Gate Capital LLP$17.4 Mil3.7%36ADD +33.6%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/30/2026