A.O. Smith (AOS)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $60.03 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
A.O. Smith (AOS)
Market Price (6/16/2026): $60.03Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 7.8% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% Key risksAOS key risks include [1] challenges in the Chinese market due to weak consumer demand and [2] a softening residential market in North America. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.5%, FCF Yield is 7.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electrification of Everything, Water Infrastructure, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Key risksAOS key risks include [1] challenges in the Chinese market due to weak consumer demand and [2] a softening residential market in North America. |
Qualitative Assessment
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A.O. Smith (AOS) stock has lost about 25% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. A.O. Smith reported a miss on its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings and subsequently lowered its full-year 2026 financial guidance. The company's net sales for fiscal Q1 2026 decreased 2% year-over-year to $945.6 million, missing analyst estimates by approximately 3.5%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $0.85, an 11% decline year-over-year, falling short of analysts' consensus estimates of $0.94 by $0.09. Following these results, A.O. Smith lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $3.70-$4.00 and its net sales guidance to $3.9 billion-$4.0 billion, signaling a weaker outlook.
2. Continued weak consumer demand in China and a soft residential market in North America negatively impacted sales. The Rest of World segment, largely driven by China, experienced an 11% decrease in sales during fiscal Q1 2026, with China sales specifically dropping 17% in local currency. The company's management expects China sales to decline by low-double-digits in 2026. In the North American segment, while sales increased 1%, this growth was primarily attributed to the acquisition of Leonard Valve and pricing benefits, which offset softer residential water heater volumes amid a slow housing environment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.6% change in AOS stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.56 | 60.02 | -22.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,830 | 3,812 | -0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 13.8% | -2.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 15.7 | -20.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 138 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AOS | -22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.3% | 48.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | 71.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.1% change in AOS stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.28 | 60.02 | -8.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,830 | 3,812 | -0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.9% | 13.8% | -0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.2 | 15.7 | -8.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 138 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AOS | -8.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.1% | 37.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 17.0% | 66.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.7% change in AOS stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.98 | 60.02 | -4.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,803 | 3,812 | 0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 13.8% | 0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 15.7 | -9.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 138 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AOS | -4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 29.5% | 36.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 26.8% | 61.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.7% change in AOS stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026 was primarily driven by a -58.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.47 | 60.02 | -0.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,743 | 3,812 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 13.8% | 113.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.6 | 15.7 | -58.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 151 | 138 | 9.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AOS | -0.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.7% | 42.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 92.9% | 60.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AOS Return | 59% | -32% | 47% | -16% | 0% | -11% | 19% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -22% | 50% | 19% | 6% | -5% | 89% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AOS Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 33% | 60% | 58% | 57% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AOS Max Drawdown | -17% | -43% | -16% | -25% | -18% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -40% | -18% | -15% | -26% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTS, XYL, PNR, IR, LII. See AOS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -11.3% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 6 days |
In The Past
A.O. Smith's stock fell -11.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | AOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 40 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
A.O. Smith's stock fell -11.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About A.O. Smith (AOS)
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for A.O. Smith:
- A.O. Smith is like Carrier or Trane for water heating and treatment systems.
- A.O. Smith is like the specialized Whirlpool for water heaters, boilers, and purification.
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- Residential Water Heaters: Manufactures gas, heat pump, and electric water heaters for homes.
- Commercial Water Heaters: Produces water heaters for use in restaurants, hotels, office buildings, and other businesses.
- Boilers (Residential & Commercial): Offers boilers for heating homes and large commercial buildings.
- Water Treatment Products: Provides a range of solutions including water softeners, whole-home filtration, point-of-use, and reverse osmosis systems.
- Specialty Heaters: Includes commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool/spa heaters, heat pumps, electric wall-hung, gas tankless, and combi-boiler water heaters.
- Tanks and Components: Supplies expansion tanks and other related parts for water heating and treatment systems.
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A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) primarily sells its products to other companies (B2B) through various distribution channels rather than directly to individuals, with a noted exception for its Aquasana brand.
Based on the provided company description, A. O. Smith's major direct customers are the organizations that purchase its products for resale or further distribution. These include:
- Independent Wholesale Plumbing Distributors: These companies serve as crucial intermediaries, purchasing A. O. Smith's water heaters, boilers, tanks, and water treatment products in bulk. They then distribute and sell these products to a wide network of plumbers, contractors, and commercial clients for installation in residential, commercial (e.g., restaurants, hotels, hospitals), and industrial settings.
- Retail Hardware and Home Center Chains: A. O. Smith supplies its products to these large retail companies, which then sell directly to end-consumers (both individuals undertaking DIY projects and small contractors) through their physical stores. While specific company names are not provided in the background, these typically include major hardware and home improvement retailers.
- Online Retailers: For certain products, particularly those under the Aquasana brand, A. O. Smith sells to various online retailers who then offer these products directly to consumers via e-commerce platforms. A. O. Smith also engages in direct-to-consumer sales for its Aquasana brand through its own e-commerce channels.
The provided background description does not name specific public customer companies or their symbols.
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Stephen M. Shafer, President and Chief Executive Officer
Stephen Shafer was named President and Chief Executive Officer of A. O. Smith Corporation on July 1, 2025. He is responsible for the company's global operations, strategy development and implementation, profitability, and shareholder return. Shafer joined A. O. Smith as President and Chief Operating Officer in March 2024. Prior to A. O. Smith, he worked at 3M Company from 2010 to 2024, holding various positions with increasing responsibilities in multiple business units in the U.S. and China, with his most recent role being president of the Automotive and Aerospace Solutions Division. His career also includes roles at McKinsey & Company and Ford Motor Company, focusing on manufacturing, supply chain, and operational improvement.
Charles T. Lauber, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Chuck Lauber was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of A. O. Smith in May 2019, overseeing all financial functions of the company, including treasury, controllership, cash management, and investor relations. He joined A. O. Smith in December 1999 as corporate director of tax and audit and has since held significant leadership roles within corporate and business unit finance and accounting. Before joining A. O. Smith, Lauber held various auditing and management positions with Ernst & Young LLP from 1984 to 1999, specializing in assurance services and M&A due diligence practices. He holds a Bachelor of Science in accounting from the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater and a Master of Business Administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. Lauber serves on the board of directors of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and H.B. Fuller.
Kevin J. Wheeler, Executive Chairman
Kevin Wheeler transitioned from Chairman and Chief Executive Officer to Executive Chairman of the A. O. Smith Corporation Board of Directors on July 1, 2025. In this role, he continues to lead the company's Board and remains actively involved in strategic development, mergers and acquisitions, investor relations, and executive talent development. Wheeler was named Chairman of the board in May 2020 and Chief Executive Officer in September 2018. He joined A. O. Smith in 1994 as a regional sales manager. During his 31-year tenure with the company, he has held numerous senior leadership positions, including managing director of European operations, vice president-international overseeing European and Asian operations, and president of the North America, India, and Europe water heating businesses. Under his leadership as CEO, A. O. Smith acquired Giant Factories, a Canadian water heater manufacturer, and six water treatment companies, including one in India. Prior to joining A. O. Smith, he held sales management positions at Bradford White Corporation and American Water Heater Company.
James F. Stern, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, Strategy and Secretary
James F. Stern was named Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, Strategy and Secretary in October 2025. In this role, he focuses on corporate development and strategy while also maintaining responsibility for government, industry, and regulatory affairs, and continues his role as secretary. He previously served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of A. O. Smith Corporation since June 2007. Stern joined A. O. Smith after 15 years as a partner at Foley & Lardner LLP, where he specialized in mergers and acquisitions and corporate practice. He was also an associate with Latham & Watkins LLP. Stern serves on the board of directors of Badger Meter, Inc. He earned a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Notre Dame and a Juris Doctorate from Northwestern University School of Law.
Paul Jones, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer
Paul Jones was appointed Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer, effective October 1, 2025, where he oversees the company's legal, compliance, and intellectual property activities globally. He joined A. O. Smith in 2023 as Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy. Jones is an accomplished leader with 28 years of legal experience, including more than 17 years as a general counsel during his career. Before joining A. O. Smith, he led legal teams at Regal-Beloit Corp., Harley-Davidson Inc., and Marquette University. Earlier in his career, Jones was a partner at Foley & Lardner in Milwaukee.
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The key risks to A. O. Smith's business include its exposure to the economic downturn in China, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the need to adapt to evolving regulatory standards.
- Economic Headwinds in China: A. O. Smith's "Rest of World" segment, heavily influenced by its operations in China, faces significant strategic and operational risks due to persistent economic headwinds, weak consumer confidence, and the cessation of government stimulus programs. The company has revised its 2025 China sales outlook downward, anticipating a decline of approximately 10% in local currency, which directly impacts its consolidated sales projections. This market's challenges have transformed a historical growth engine into a liability, contributing to stagnant top-line revenue growth for the company.
- Sensitivity to Raw Material Prices: The company's profitability and margins are susceptible to volatility in raw material costs, particularly steel. Higher material costs have historically impacted segment earnings and margins. While some customers may be contractually obliged to accept price changes based on steel price fluctuations, managing these input costs remains a continuous challenge for maintaining profitability.
- Evolving Regulatory Standards: A. O. Smith must continuously adapt its product offerings to meet new minimum efficiency standards. For instance, new regulations for commercial water heaters are set for October 2026, and for residential water heaters by May 2029. These changes necessitate ongoing innovation and potential investment in product development to ensure compliance and maintain market competitiveness. Additionally, changes or rollbacks in energy efficiency legislation can alter the competitive landscape, as previously seen when the removal of certain regulations increased competition by removing adjustment requirements for competitors.
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For A.O. Smith (AOS), the addressable markets for their main products and services are sized across various regions, primarily North America and globally, as follows:
Water Heaters
- Global Water Heater Market: The global water heater market was estimated at USD 31.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 46.39 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2026 to 2033. Another estimate valued the global market at USD 33.7 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to USD 57.5 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.6% from 2025 to 2034.
- North America Residential Water Heater Market: This market was valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6.3 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of over 6%. The U.S. residential water heater market specifically generated USD 4.69 billion in revenue in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 6.77 billion by 2033.
- North America Heat Pump Water Heater Market: This segment is projected to experience significant growth, with the U.S. market alone expected to reach a value of USD 2,117.7 million by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.9% during the forecast period of 2023-2030.
Boilers
- Global Residential Boiler Market: The global residential boiler market was valued at approximately USD 8.02 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 12.95 billion by 2034. Other estimates indicate the market was valued at USD 14.16 billion in 2024, anticipating growth to USD 23.92 billion by 2033.
- North America Residential Boiler Market: This market was estimated at USD 2.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 6.2 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.6%.
- Global Commercial Boiler Market: The global commercial boiler market was valued at USD 10.71 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 14.88 billion by 2032. Another source estimated the market at USD 4.77 billion in 2025, with a projection to grow to USD 6.83 billion by 2034.
- North America Commercial Boiler Market: This market was valued at USD 2.85 billion in 2024 and is forecasted to reach USD 5.00 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 6.47%. The North America Commercial Electric Boiler Market alone was valued at USD 270.86 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1285.37 million by 2034, with a robust CAGR of 16.85%.
Water Treatment Products
- Global Water Treatment Systems Market: The global water treatment systems market size was estimated at USD 45.07 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 88.02 billion by 2033. Similarly, the global water treatment market size was valued at USD 69.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 128.06 billion by 2033.
- North America Water Treatment System Market: This market generated a revenue of USD 9.21 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 16.63 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.8%.
- North America Household Water Treatment System Market: This market was valued at USD 4.65 billion in 2022 and is projected to exceed USD 8.76 billion by 2032.
- North America Point-of-Entry Water Treatment Systems Market: This specific segment was valued at USD 2.15 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach approximately USD 3.40 billion by 2033.
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A. O. Smith (AOS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Growth in North America Commercial Water Heaters and Boilers: The company anticipates continued strength in its North American commercial segment, particularly for water heaters and boilers. This growth is expected to be fueled by pricing actions, higher volumes, and a demand for more efficient products, further supported by upcoming regulatory changes that favor higher-efficiency technologies.
- Expansion in the India Market: A. O. Smith projects sustained double-digit sales growth in India, identifying it as a significant long-term revenue growth opportunity. This market is seen as a key area for international expansion and profitable growth.
- Growth in North America Water Treatment Products: The company expects a notable increase in its North American water treatment sales, with projections of 10%-12% growth. This is driven by price capture, the adoption of higher-efficiency technologies, and strategic focus on priority channels such as dealer, e-commerce, and direct-to-consumer.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Future revenue will be bolstered by strategic acquisitions, exemplified by the recent acquisition of Leonard Valve in January 2026. This acquisition is anticipated to contribute approximately $70 million in sales for 2026 and serve as a foundation for a broader water management platform.
- Strategic Pricing Actions: A. O. Smith consistently leverages strategic pricing actions across its product categories, particularly in North America, to drive sales growth and expand margins. These actions have been noted as a significant contributor to the company's financial performance.
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Share Repurchases
- A. O. Smith repurchased 5.9 million shares at a cost of $400.8 million in 2025. The company expects to repurchase approximately $200 million worth of shares in 2026.
- In the first nine months of 2025, the company repurchased 5 million shares for $335.4 million.
- In January 2026, the board of directors increased the number of shares authorized for repurchase by an additional 5 million shares.
Share Issuance
- No significant information regarding the dollar amount of shares issued for capital raising purposes was identified within the last 3-5 years.
Inbound Investments
- No significant information regarding large investments made in the company by third-parties was identified within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, A. O. Smith completed the acquisition of LVC Holdco LLC (Leonard Valve) for $470 million, enhancing its water heating, boiler offerings, and presence in the water management market.
- In November 2024, the company acquired the Pureit business from Unilever to expand its water treatment product offerings and strengthen its position in India. Pureit contributed $54 million to sales in 2025.
- Strategic acquisitions made between 2021 and 2024 include Giant Factories for $192 million in October 2021, Master Water in July 2021, Atlantic Filter in June 2022, and Impact Water Products in March 2024.
Capital Expenditures
- A. O. Smith's capital expenditures were $71 million in 2025 and $108 million in 2024.
- The company projects capital expenditures of $85 million for 2026.
- Capital expenditures are focused on organic growth, acquisitions, and innovation to drive long-term value creation.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| Rev LTM | 4,730 |
| Op Inc LTM | 987 |
| FCF LTM | 688 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 667 |
| CFO LTM | 798 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 796 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.6 |
| P/EBIT | 19.6 |
| P/E | 25.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water heaters and related parts | 2,460 | 2,442 | 2,457 | ||
| China | 690 | 792 | 835 | ||
| Boilers and related parts | 281 | 260 | 240 | ||
| Water treatment products | 243 | 248 | 226 | ||
| All other Rest of World | 191 | 127 | 122 | ||
| Inter-segment sales | -34 | -51 | -27 | ||
| Single Segment | 3,754 | 3,539 | |||
| Total | 3,830 | 3,818 | 3,853 | 3,754 | 3,539 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2007 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 340 | ||||
| Rest of World | 113 | ||||
| Corporate | -43 | ||||
| Water Systems | 150 | ||||
| Electric Motor Technologies | 21 | 346 | 79 | ||
| Water Systems Technologies | 39 | 35 | 34 | ||
| Total | 410 | 150 | 60 | 380 | 113 |
| $ Mil | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 1,381 | 1,358 | 1,299 | 1,306 | 1,319 |
| Corporate | 721 | 633 | |||
| Rest of World | 544 | 524 | 525 | 420 | 342 |
| Corporate expense | 568 | ||||
| Inter-segment | 539 | 687 | |||
| Total | 2,646 | 2,515 | 2,392 | 2,265 | 2,349 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $60.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 8.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/07/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $60.44 | $67.14 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.7% | -10.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.5% | 25.3% |
| Downside Capture | 107.58 | 79.57 |
| Upside Capture | 30.04 | 52.09 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.7% | 36.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.81 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | 2.93 | 1.78 | 1.64 | 1.15 | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| Down Beta | 2.78 | 2.30 | 1.08 | 1.16 | 0.87 | 0.46 |
| Up Capture | 1% | -13% | -4% | 22% | 37% | 36% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 16 | 22 | 58 | 118 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 303% | 243% | 165% | 81% | 90% | 97% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 25 | 41 | 66 | 132 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOS | -4.6% | 25.2% | -0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 26.0% | 16.2% | 1.24 | 62.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.6% | 12.4% | 1.62 | 36.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.1% | 27.5% | 0.86 | 14.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.6% | 19.1% | 1.19 | -23.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.2% | 13.5% | 0.60 | 49.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.1% | 42.2% | -1.10 | 11.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOS | -0.8% | 27.1% | -0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.5% | 0.58 | 64.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 52.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 18.2% | 0.78 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 19.4% | 0.30 | 4.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.8% | 0.03 | 53.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.7% | 54.4% | 0.44 | 19.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AOS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOS | 5.6% | 27.1% | 0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 64.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 56.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.8% | 16.1% | 0.66 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 14.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 47.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.8% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/30/2026 | -2.3% | -3.6% | -10.4% |
| 1/29/2026 | 5.3% | 13.3% | 12.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -2.6% | -3.8% | -4.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.6% | -0.8% | 1.0% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.5% | 6.0% | -0.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.8% | -4.7% | -3.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -8.7% |
| 7/23/2024 | -9.4% | -4.9% | -8.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 4.0% | 11.0% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.8% | -5.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.7% | 22.5% | 26.6% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -9.5% | -10.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/11/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -14.3% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.5% for 2026 |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 3.6 | 3.75 | 3.9 | -6.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 4 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 3.7 | 3.85 | 4 | -3.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 4 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 200.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 3.90 Bil | 3.96 Bil | 4.02 Bil | 3.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.83 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 3.85 | 4 | 4.15 | 6.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.77 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.5% | 5.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schuh, Darrell W | SVP; President & GM Lochinvar | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 74.39 | 1,104 | 82,126 | 163,732 | Form |
| 2 | Schuh, Darrell W | SVP; President & GM Lochinvar | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 79.89 | 356 | 28,439 | 263,221 | Form |
| 3 | Stern, James F | Exec VP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 8072025 | 71.24 | 17,434 | 1,241,953 | 7,037,115 | Form |
| 4 | Wheeler, Kevin J | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 7302025 | 71.26 | 22,200 | 1,581,868 | 7,171,632 | Form |
| 5 | Smith, Mark D | Direct | Sell | 7292025 | 71.36 | 2,400 | 171,264 | 8,295,029 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Building Products Resources |
| Building Design+Construction |
| Construction Dive |
| Architectural Record |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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