Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $192.81 | Market Cap: $313.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $192.81Market Cap: $313.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.7 Bil | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. | Key risksAMD key risks include [1] fierce competition from NVIDIA, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Digital Content & Streaming, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 74x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Key risksAMD key risks include [1] fierce competition from NVIDIA, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Post-Earnings Sell-Off Despite Strong Results.
Advanced Micro Devices' stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17% on February 4, 2026, the day after the company announced its fourth-quarter 2025 results. This drop occurred despite AMD reporting better-than-expected earnings and providing positive guidance, indicating that market expectations might have been exceptionally high or that other underlying concerns outweighed the strong financial performance.
2. Premium Valuation and Intense Competition in AI.
Analysts noted AMD's premium valuation, with a high P/E ratio of 126.66 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 64.55, positioning it at roughly a 40% premium compared to NVIDIA. This elevated valuation, combined with fierce competition in the rapidly growing AI chip market, likely prompted investors to exercise caution and potentially led to selling pressure as they assessed the company's competitive standing and future growth prospects against its rivals.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.1% change in AMD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 217.53 | 193.39 | -11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 32,027 | 34,639 | 8.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 12.5% | 21.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 107.0 | 72.6 | -32.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,626 | 1,627 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | -11.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLK) | -4.4% | 66.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.9% change in AMD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 162.63 | 193.39 | 18.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,600 | 34,639 | 17.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.6% | 12.5% | 30.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 93.1 | 72.6 | -22.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,623 | 1,627 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 18.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 50.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | 4.4% | 61.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 93.7% change in AMD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.86 | 193.39 | 93.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,785 | 34,639 | 34.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.4% | 12.5% | 96.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 98.8 | 72.6 | -26.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,623 | 1,627 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 93.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 93.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 63.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 21.9% | 71.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 146.1% change in AMD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 123.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 78.58 | 193.39 | 146.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 23,601 | 34,639 | 46.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.6% | 12.5% | 123.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 96.3 | 72.6 | -24.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,618 | 1,627 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 146.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | 146.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 59.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 104.5% | 68.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMD Return | 57% | -55% | 128% | -18% | 77% | -4% | 123% |
| Peers Return | 59% | -41% | 107% | 63% | 33% | 3% | 331% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMD Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 40% | 68% | 60% | 57% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMD Max Drawdown | -20% | -61% | -4% | -19% | -35% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -50% | -4% | -17% | -30% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: INTC, NVDA, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See AMD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 189.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 461 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 168 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1030.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3,556 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to INTC, NVDA, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL
In The Past
Advanced Micro Devices's stock fell -65.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -65.4% loss requires a 189.4% gain to breakeven.
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About Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AMD is a semiconductor company that directly challenges Intel for computer processors (CPUs) and NVIDIA for graphics cards and AI accelerators (GPUs).
AI Analysis | Feedback
- x86 Microprocessors (APUs): Processors designed for desktop and notebook personal computers, often integrating CPU and GPU cores.
- Chipsets: Components that facilitate communication between the processor, memory, and other peripherals within a system.
- Graphics Processing Units (GPUs): Discrete and integrated graphics cards for a range of applications, including consumer PCs, professional workstations, and data centers.
- Server and Embedded Processors: High-performance processors specifically designed for use in servers, data centers, and specialized embedded computing systems.
- Semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) Products: Integrated circuits tailored to customer specifications, often combining CPU, GPU, and multimedia technologies, such as those used in game consoles.
- Development Services: Services that assist with the design and integration of AMD's CPU, GPU, and multimedia technologies into customer-specific solutions.
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) primarily operates on a Business-to-Business (B2B) model, selling its processors, graphics cards, and semi-custom solutions to other companies that integrate them into their final products or services.
The company's major customers include:
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT): A significant customer for AMD's custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products used in Xbox game consoles, as well as for server processors (EPYC) and accelerators in its Azure cloud computing services.
- Sony Group Corp. (SONY): Another major customer for AMD's custom SoC products powering the PlayStation series of game consoles.
- Hewlett-Packard (HP) Inc. (HPQ): A leading Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) that incorporates AMD CPUs and GPUs into its desktop and notebook personal computers.
- Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL): A prominent OEM for personal computers and servers, utilizing AMD processors and graphics solutions in its product lines.
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): The parent company of Google Cloud, which deploys AMD EPYC server processors in its data centers to power its cloud computing services.
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon utilizes AMD EPYC server processors to deliver cloud infrastructure services.
- Lenovo Group Ltd. (HKG: 0992): A major global OEM for personal computers, workstations, and servers that integrates AMD's CPUs and GPUs into a wide range of its products.
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- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)
- GlobalFoundries (GFS)
- ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (ASX)
- Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR)
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Lisa Su, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Lisa Su joined AMD in 2012 and became President and CEO in October 2014, leading a significant turnaround of the company. Before AMD, she held senior leadership roles at Freescale Semiconductor, Inc., including Senior Vice President and General Manager of Networking and Multimedia, and Chief Technology Officer. Prior to Freescale, she spent 13 years at IBM in various engineering and business leadership positions, including Vice President of the Semiconductor Research and Development Center. At IBM, she was involved in developing silicon-on-insulator semiconductor manufacturing technologies and more efficient semiconductor chips, and she formed IBM's Emerging Products group, helping to transform industry standards by replacing aluminum interconnects with copper ones.
Jean Hu, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer
Jean Hu joined AMD in January 2023. Before joining AMD, she served as CFO of Marvell Technology Group Ltd. from August 2016 to January 2023. She also held CFO roles at QLogic Corporation from April 2011 to August 2016 and served as acting CEO of QLogic from May 2013 to February 2014 and from August 2015 to August 2016. Additionally, she was CFO and Senior Vice President, Business Development at Conexant Systems, Inc. from 2004 to 2011. She serves on the board of directors at Fortinet.
Mark Papermaster, Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Mark Papermaster joined AMD in October 2011 and is responsible for the company's technical direction and product development, including leading the development of the "Zen" CPU architecture. Before AMD, he was the leader of Cisco's Silicon Engineering Group (2010-2011), Senior Vice President of Devices Hardware Engineering at Apple Inc. for iPod and iPhone products (2008-2010), and held multiple leadership roles at IBM for 26 years (1982-2008), involved in PowerPC technology development and the blade server division.
Rick Bergman, Executive Vice President of Computing and Graphics
Rick Bergman is currently AMD's Executive Vice President of Computing and Graphics, a role he returned to in 2019. He initially joined AMD in 2006 following its acquisition of ATI Technologies. From 2011 to 2019, he served as President and CEO of Synaptics. Before ATI, he held senior management positions at S3 Graphics, Texas Instruments, and IBM. He also served on the board of Maxwell Technologies from 2015 until its acquisition by Tesla in 2019 and was President and CEO of Kymeta Corporation from April 2024 to November 2025.
Victor Peng, President, Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group
Victor Peng rejoined AMD in 2022 as President, Adaptive and Embedded Computing Group, following AMD's acquisition of Xilinx. He previously served as President and CEO of Xilinx from 2018 to 2022, and prior to that, was COO and Executive Vice President & General Manager of Products at Xilinx. Before joining Xilinx in 2008, Peng worked at AMD as Corporate Vice President of the graphics products group silicon engineering. He has held executive and engineering leadership roles at TZero Technologies, MIPS Technologies, Silicon Graphics (SGI), and Digital Equipment Corporation. He announced his retirement from his presidential role at AMD effective August 30, 2024, continuing in an advisory capacity. In February 2025, he joined the Board of Directors of Microchip Technology, and he has also served on the Board of Directors of KLA Corporation since 2019.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from the highly competitive nature of the semiconductor industry, cyclical demand for certain products, and its manufacturing model.
- Intense Competition and Rapid Technological Obsolescence: AMD operates in highly competitive markets for microprocessors (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), where it directly competes with established giants like Intel and NVIDIA. AMD's success relies heavily on its ability to continuously innovate and introduce new products with superior features and performance on a timely basis. Failure to keep pace with technological advancements, particularly in critical areas like AI accelerators where NVIDIA holds a dominant position with its CUDA software ecosystem, could lead to a loss of market share and reduced revenue. Intel's aggressive product roadmaps also pose a constant threat in the client and server CPU segments.
- Decline in Gaming Segment Revenue due to Maturing Console Cycles and Customer Concentration: A significant portion of AMD's semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) revenue is derived from providing processors for game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. These console markets are cyclical, and as current console generations mature, demand for these SoCs naturally declines, leading to a contraction in AMD's gaming segment revenue. AMD's reliance on a limited number of key customers for these high-volume semi-custom products makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in console sales and potential shifts in supplier choices by these manufacturers. For instance, the gaming segment experienced a significant year-over-year decline in revenue in early 2024 due to waning demand as consoles entered their fifth year in the market.
- Dependence on Third-Party Manufacturing and Supply Chain Disruptions: Advanced Micro Devices operates a fabless business model, meaning it relies on third-party foundries, primarily Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), for the manufacturing of its chips. This dependence exposes AMD to risks related to manufacturing capacity constraints, potential production issues at these foundries, and broader global supply chain disruptions. Such issues can lead to product shortages, delays in bringing new products to market, increased costs, and ultimately, an inability to meet customer demand, thereby negatively impacting revenue and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threats for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are:
- The increasing trend among major customers, particularly public cloud service providers, to design and develop their own custom silicon (CPUs and AI accelerators) for their data centers. This strategic shift directly threatens AMD's market share and revenue from its EPYC server processors and Instinct accelerators by reducing reliance on external vendors for these critical components.
- The growing adoption and performance capabilities of ARM-based processors in core AMD markets, specifically for desktop personal computers, notebooks, and servers. The success of ARM-based solutions like Apple Silicon and the push by other companies into Windows on ARM, alongside the increasing use of ARM server processors by cloud providers, presents a fundamental architectural challenge to AMD's predominant x86 offerings in these segments.
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) participates in several large and growing addressable markets for its main products and services:
-
Computing and Graphics Segment:
- Processors for Desktop and Notebook Personal Computers (CPUs): The global PC Processor Market was valued at approximately USD 120.15 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 168.26 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.3%.
- Discrete and Integrated Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) for PCs: The global discrete GPU market was valued at USD 11.71 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 18.67 billion by 2032, expanding at a CAGR of 6.5%. The broader global Graphics Card Market, which includes both discrete and integrated, was valued at USD 23.57 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 97.4 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 17.0%. The overall global GPU market is projected to expand from USD 82.99 billion in 2025 to USD 325.96 billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 25.61%.
-
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom Segment:
- Data Center and Professional GPUs (Accelerators): AMD projects the overall data center total addressable market (TAM) to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030 globally, growing from an estimated USD 200 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of over 40%. Specifically for AI accelerators, AMD estimates this market will exceed USD 526 billion by 2028 globally. Other reports suggest the global data center accelerator market was estimated at USD 68.0 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 393.8 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 34.0%.
- Server and Embedded Processors: The global CPU for Server market was valued at USD 21.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 33.26 billion by 2031, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.2%. Another estimate for the global Server Microprocessor Market is USD 24.0 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 43.0 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of 6.0%. For embedded solutions, AMD has secured over USD 50 billion in design wins since 2022 for its adaptive and embedded portfolio, which also includes semi-custom solutions.
- Semi-Custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products (Game Consoles): AMD provides custom chips for leading game consoles such as the Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. AMD has powered over one billion gaming devices, including game consoles, with its processors and graphics from 2008 to 2025. The value of AMD's secured semi-custom designs for various customers, including those in gaming, has been reported as $15 billion since 2022.
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Accelerated Demand for Data Center AI Processors (Instinct GPUs): AMD anticipates significant growth from its Instinct MI300 series GPUs, including the MI350, MI450, and future MI500 series, which are designed for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. The company expects its data center AI revenues to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 80% in the next 3-5 years. This growth is fueled by substantial multi-year deals with major hyperscalers, such as Meta Platforms, which is poised to deploy up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of Instinct GPUs, and a partnership with OpenAI to deploy 6 GW of chips starting in the second half of 2026. AMD's strategy to foster an open software ecosystem with ROCm 7 is also aimed at reducing developer switching costs from competitors.
- Expansion and Market Share Gains in Server CPUs (EPYC Processors): AMD's EPYC server processors are a crucial driver, benefiting from strong demand and an expanding market. The company aims to achieve more than 50% server CPU revenue market share. The overall server CPU market is projected to grow by strong double digits in 2026, with AI-driven CPU workloads contributing significantly to this expansion, projected to fuel an 18% annual growth rate by 2030. Next-generation EPYC CPUs, such as "Turin" (based on Zen 5 architecture) and "Venice" (2nm), are expected to further bolster market share gains in cloud and enterprise environments.
- Growth in the Client and Gaming Segments: AMD expects to achieve a greater than 10% revenue CAGR across its Client and Gaming businesses. The client business, driven by AMD Ryzen processors, experienced 34% year-over-year growth in Q4 2025. AMD projects it will exceed 40% client revenue market share. The introduction of new Ryzen processors featuring integrated AI accelerators, such as the Ryzen 8000 series and upcoming "Strix Point," is set to capitalize on the emerging "AI PC" market, contributing to continued growth in 2026 despite potential broader market contractions.
- Diversification and Expansion in the Embedded Segment: The Embedded segment, encompassing adaptive SoCs, FPGAs, embedded x86 processors, and semi-custom silicon, returned to growth in Q4 2025. AMD anticipates a greater than 10% revenue CAGR for this segment and aims to exceed 70% revenue market share. The company plans to expand opportunities by growing its embedded x86 and semi-custom silicon markets, with automotive AI identified as a multi-billion dollar growth opportunity.
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Share Repurchases
- In May 2025, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) authorized a new $6 billion share repurchase program. This increased the total repurchase authority to approximately $10 billion, adding to the remaining balance of its existing program.
- AMD repurchased $1.3 billion in stock in 2025. As of December 27, 2025, approximately $9.4 billion remained available for future stock repurchases under the program.
- In February 2022, AMD approved a new $8 billion share repurchase program, building on a $4 billion program announced in May 2021. Under the May 2021 program, approximately $3 billion of shares had been repurchased.
Share Issuance
- As part of the ZT Systems acquisition in March and October 2025, AMD issued 9.1 million shares of its common stock.
- In February 2026, AMD issued Meta Platforms a performance-based warrant for up to 160 million shares of AMD common stock, structured to vest as specific milestones associated with Instinct GPU shipments are achieved under their strategic partnership.
- AMD issued a warrant to OpenAI in October 2025 to purchase up to an aggregate of 160 million shares of AMD's common stock at an exercise price of $0.01 per share, contingent on certain GPU purchase milestones and stock performance.
Outbound Investments
- AMD completed the acquisition of ZT Systems in March and October 2025, which involved a total of $2.0 billion in cash (net of cash acquired) and the issuance of 9.1 million shares of common stock, aimed at strengthening AI infrastructure.
- In February 2026, AMD announced a strategic investment of $150 million in Nutanix common stock and up to $100 million for joint engineering initiatives, as part of a multi-year strategic partnership to develop an open and scalable platform for enterprise AI.
- AMD made several acquisitions to bolster its AI capabilities, including Nod.ai (October 2023) for open-source AI software, Silo AI (July 2024, for $665 million) for AI model development, and Mipsology (August 2023) for AI inference software.
Capital Expenditures
- AMD's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 reached $974 million, marking a peak in the last five years.
- The average capital expenditures for fiscal years 2021 to 2025 was $581.4 million. Capital expenditures increased annually from $301 million in 2021 to $974 million in 2025.
- Expected capital expenditures for the upcoming fiscal year (2026) are projected to be approximately $1,371.6 million, supporting increased investments in product development, AI solutions, and go-to-market strategies.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312021 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -48.8% | -55.0% | -61.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 155.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| Rev LTM | 48,860 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,950 |
| FCF LTM | 9,830 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,635 |
| CFO LTM | 12,044 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 11,473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 29.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 31.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 28.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 268.3 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 44.8 |
| P/E | 33.4 |
| P/CFO | 40.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 62.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 125.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 40.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 46.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | 6,496 | 6,043 | 3,694 | ||
| Gaming | 6,212 | 6,805 | 5,607 | ||
| Embedded | 5,321 | 4,552 | 246 | ||
| Client | 4,651 | 6,201 | 6,887 | ||
| Computing and Graphics | 6,432 | 4,709 | |||
| Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom | 3,331 | 2,022 | |||
| Total | 22,680 | 23,601 | 16,434 | 9,763 | 6,731 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Embedded | 2,628 | 2,252 | 44 | ||
| Data Center | 1,267 | 1,848 | 991 | ||
| Gaming | 971 | 953 | 934 | ||
| Client | -46 | 1,190 | 2,088 | ||
| All Other | -4,419 | -4,979 | -409 | -288 | -209 |
| Computing and Graphics | 1,266 | 577 | |||
| Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom | 391 | 263 | |||
| Total | 401 | 1,264 | 3,648 | 1,369 | 631 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $193.39 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 314.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/21/1983 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -26.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $216.13 | $190.70 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.5% | 1.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 62.5% | 64.8% |
| Downside Capture | 306.93 | 234.94 |
| Upside Capture | 312.69 | 260.75 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 53.8% | 63.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.71 | 2.57 | 2.64 | 2.83 | 2.07 | 2.05 |
| Up Beta | 4.44 | 3.56 | 3.76 | 1.54 | 1.98 | 2.05 |
| Down Beta | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.95 | 2.70 | 1.82 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 325% | 297% | 268% | 515% | 660% | 2508% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 19 | 31 | 62 | 134 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 483% | 291% | 260% | 237% | 148% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 22 | 30 | 62 | 116 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 97.7% | 64.7% | 1.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 30.0% | 26.8% | 0.95 | 71.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 63.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 27.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 25.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 41.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 21.9% | 53.3% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 17.7% | 24.7% | 0.64 | 73.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 65.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 12.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 29.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 55.7% | 58.9% | 0.99 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.8% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 59.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 53.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 28.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | -17.3% | -11.8% | -17.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 2.5% | -5.0% | -12.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | -6.4% | 0.4% | -7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 1.8% | 14.0% | 17.3% |
| 2/4/2025 | -6.3% | -7.0% | -17.3% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.6% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.4% | -6.0% | 5.7% |
| 4/30/2024 | -8.9% | -2.5% | 5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 13 |
| # Negative | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 11.9% | 19.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -6.0% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 12.6% | 25.8% | 32.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.3% | -14.8% | -18.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Su, Lisa T | Chair, President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 215.14 | 125,000 | 26,891,905 | 705,100,585 | Form |
| 2 | Grasby, Paul Darren | EVP & CSO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 218.77 | 10,000 | 2,187,700 | 29,171,667 | Form |
| 3 | Hu, Jean X | EVP, CFO and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 209.96 | 14,506 | 3,045,741 | 5,360,806 | Form |
| 4 | Norrod, Forrest Eugene | EVP & GM DESG | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 229.37 | 19,450 | 4,461,296 | 68,891,587 | Form |
| 5 | Papermaster, Mark D | Chief Technology Officer & EVP | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 240.12 | 17,108 | 4,107,935 | 411,683,151 | Form |
AMD Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The Probability-Adjusted Skew of 2.19x is highly attractive. The investment thesis is assigned a high conviction rating because the powerful secular tailwind of the AI infrastructure build-out (Regime B) provides a substantial margin of safety. Even if AMD faces challenges competing with Nvidia's software moat, the sheer size of the market demand allows for a very successful #2 player. The downside is cushioned by the strong, ongoing share gain story versus Intel in the traditional server market, while the upside offers exposure to the explosive growth in AI.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityAMD fits the 'Cyclical' archetype due to its exposure to the semiconductor cycle, driven by large-scale capital expenditures from customers. The current environment is described as a 'Super-Cycle' fueled by AI, mandating a 'Cyclical Inversion' approach where valuation must be assessed based on normalized, mid-cycle earnings power rather than trailing metrics which can be misleading at peaks and troughs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis centers on AMD's dual-engine growth in the Data Center. First, by continuing to take significant and profitable market share from Intel with its performance-leading EPYC server CPUs. Second, by establishing the Instinct GPU line as the credible number-two alternative to Nvidia in the hyper-growth AI accelerator market, capturing demand from hyperscalers seeking to diversify their supply chain.
- Data Center segment revenue accelerated to +39% YoY in Q4 2025, reaching a record $5.4 billion.
- CEO forecasts the Data Center segment to grow over 60% annually for the next 3-5 years.
- Major cloud providers (AWS, Google, Microsoft) are expanding their AMD-powered instances and partnering on AI accelerators.
- Q1 2026 revenue guidance of ~$9.8B (+32% YoY) exceeded prior consensus, signaling strong continued momentum.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction to the thesis is the immense competitive moat of Nvidia's CUDA software platform. Despite AMD's hardware being competitive, the vast and mature ecosystem of developers, models, and tools built around CUDA creates extremely high switching costs for customers, which could cap AMD's ultimate market share potential in the most lucrative AI training workloads.
- The company's own disclosure identifies the primary deficit as 'immature software ecosystem (ROCm)' compared to Nvidia's CUDA.
- Competitive analysis grades AMD as 'Worse vs NVIDIA' on both 'Switching Costs' and 'Network Flywheel' due to CUDA's dominance.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center Revenue Growth (YoY) | > 50% | This is the 'North Star' metric for the bull thesis. Sustained growth above this level validates the EPYC share gain and Instinct GPU ramp narratives, justifying the premium valuation. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%) | Sustained > 55% (ex one-time items) | Gross margin is the clearest quantitative indicator of the mix-shift to high-value Data Center products. Failure to expand margins would suggest pricing pressure or a less favorable product mix than anticipated. |
| Instinct GPU Customer Announcements | At least one new major hyperscaler deployment announced per half-year | Provides crucial qualitative evidence that AMD is successfully penetrating Nvidia's CUDA moat. These announcements are leading indicators of future revenue and market share. |
AI Accelerator Share Gain vs. Nvidia's Moat
BULL VIEW
AMD's MI-series GPUs are hardware-competitive, attracting key hyperscalers (Meta, MSFT, OpenAI) seeking a viable second source to Nvidia, driving substantial Data Center growth.
CORE TENSION
Can AMD's hardware performance overcome Nvidia’s CUDA software moat to capture meaningful, high-margin share in the AI accelerator market, justifying its premium valuation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The negative stock reaction to a record Q4 2025 earnings beat signals investor skepticism. The market is looking past strong current results, focusing on the sustainability of AI-driven growth against Nvidia.
BEAR VIEW
Nvidia's CUDA software ecosystem creates insurmountable switching costs. AMD's traction is limited to a few large customers, risking significant revenue impact if they pause spending.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
March 16-19, 2026 | Nvidia GTC 2026 Conference Watch: Performance-per-watt advantage of Nvidia's next-gen 'Rubin' architecture vs. AMD's MI300 series. A >40% gap would be a significant negative. |
April-May 2026 | Hyperscaler Earnings Calls (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META) Watch: Forward CapEx guidance and commentary. Watch for language shifting from 'capacity buildout' to 'optimization' or 'improving ROI on AI investments.' |
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Watch: Data Center revenue growth excluding China sales. The market needs to see organic, non-China AI accelerator revenue ramp to validate the thesis. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 28, 2025 | New EPYC Processor Launch Details: AMD launched its next-generation EPYC server processors, codenamed 'Turin', promising significant performance gains and efficiency improvements to extend its lead over Intel in the data center market. | Changed Little (0.9%) $167.13 -> $168.58 |
Oct 6, 2025 | Major Partnership with OpenAI Details: Announced a multi-year deal to supply 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs for OpenAI's AI infrastructure, signaling a major competitive win in the AI accelerator market. | Surged +23.7% $164.67 -> $203.71 |
Nov 4, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced record Q3 revenue of $9.2 billion, beating expectations. The strong results were driven by high demand for EPYC and Ryzen processors and initial Instinct AI accelerator shipments. | Rose significantly by 2.5% $250.05 -> $256.33 |
Nov 11, 2025 | Financial Analyst Day Details: AMD unveiled its long-term strategy, forecasting the Data Center segment to grow over 60% annually. Despite the bullish outlook, the stock saw a minor pullback, suggesting high expectations were already priced in. | Fell notably by -2.6% $243.98 -> $237.52 |
Jan 15, 2026 | US Commerce Dept. Policy Shift Details: The US Department of Commerce's BIS shifted its policy for AI chip exports to China to a 'case-by-case' review, creating uncertainty but seen as slightly positive versus a blanket ban. | Modest 1.9% gain $223.60 -> $227.92 |
Feb 3, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported record Q4 revenue of $10.3B, beating estimates. Despite the beat, stock fell sharply on conservative Q1 guidance and concerns over reliance on a one-time inventory sale to China. | Plummeted -17.3% $242.11 -> $200.19 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (6.2x S&P). While visibility is high, the Neutral sentiment and Contested moat vs. Nvidia are significant fundamental constraints. The volatility profile caps sizing in the Normal bucket to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
NVDA
INDUSTRYOwns the AI software ecosystem (CUDA), providing a deeper, more durable moat than AMD's hardware-centric approach. Offers a purer, albeit more expensive, play on the dominant AI infrastructure theme.
MRVL
INDUSTRYProvides exposure to the AI data center buildout via custom silicon (ASICs) and networking, a different and potentially less competitive vector than AMD's direct challenge to Nvidia GPUs.
Advanced Micro Devices is transitioning from a CPU/GPU challenger to a primary enabler of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) super-cycle, driven by accelerating adoption of its Instinct GPUs and EPYC server CPUs in data centers.
Filter all news through the lens of Data Center AI and CPU market share gains, as this is the primary driver of the company's re-rating and long-term growth targets.
Data Center revenue growth ">+40% YoY; announcements of large-scale Instinct MI-series GPU deployments by hyperscalers (e.g., Meta, Microsoft, Oracle); third-party reports (Mercury Research, IDC) showing server CPU revenue share exceeding 45%; evidence of sustained gross margin expansion towards the 55-58% target.
Slowing Data Center revenue growth; loss of a major cloud customer for Instinct GPUs to Nvidia's next-generation products; market share erosion in server CPUs back towards Intel; significant delays in the 'Venice' EPYC CPU or 'Helios' MI450 system launches.
Quarterly fluctuations in the PC (Client) or Gaming console markets; short-term channel inventory adjustments in the Embedded segment; single-benchmark wins or losses against Intel or Nvidia in non-core product segments.
Repricing Catalyst
The rapid ramp of the Data Center AI business, centered on the AMD Instinct GPU family. Management expects this segment to generate 'tens of billions' in revenue by 2027, driven by deployments at major AI companies and cloud providers like Meta. [2, 4] This rapid, high-margin growth is the core catalyst for re-rating the stock to a higher multiple.
Data Center (AI Accelerators & Server CPUs)
$21.5B TTM (48% of Total) · 70% MarginWhat It Is
EPYC server CPUs (5th Gen 'Turin'); Instinct MI-series AI/HPC GPU Accelerators (MI350, upcoming MI450 'Helios' systems); Pensando DPUs; Xilinx Alveo adaptive accelerators.
Who Pays & How
Cloud Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Oracle, Meta) and Enterprises pay for EPYC's core density and power efficiency (TCO advantage over Intel) and Instinct's open-platform AI compute capabilities to build out AI training and inference infrastructure. Meta is a lead customer for next-gen 'Venice' EPYC CPUs and has a multi-year agreement for up to 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs. [2, 10]
Competition
Client & Gaming (PC Processors & Graphics, Console SoCs)
$14.6B TTM (36% of Total) · 45% MarginWhat It Is
Ryzen CPUs for desktops and laptops (e.g., Ryzen 9, Ryzen 7); Radeon GPUs for desktops and laptops (e.g., RX series); Semi-custom SoCs for game consoles (Sony PlayStation, Microsoft Xbox).
Who Pays & How
PC OEMs (Dell, HP, Lenovo) pay for Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs to build PCs at various price points. Consumers pay via DIY market. Sony and Microsoft pay for custom-designed SoCs that form the core of their gaming consoles, a relationship locked in for the multi-year life of the console generation.
Competition
Embedded Processors
$3.5B TTM (16% of Total) · 65% MarginWhat It Is
Embedded CPUs and SoCs (EPYC Embedded, Ryzen Embedded); Adaptive SoCs and FPGAs (Zynq, Versal, Kintex) for networking, automotive, industrial, and aerospace & defense markets.
Who Pays & How
Networking equipment providers, automotive Tier-1 suppliers, and industrial automation companies pay for highly customized, long-lifecycle processors and adaptive chips that are designed into their products for specific functions (e.g., network packet processing, ADAS in cars).
Competition
External Quote Links
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