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Applied Materials (AMAT)

Market Price (2/19/2026): $370.2 | Market Cap: $294.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

Applied Materials (AMAT)

Market Price (2/19/2026): $370.2
Market Cap: $294.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30%		 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%		 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil		  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%		  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more.		  Key risks
AMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 47%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Advanced Materials. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 115%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.5%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 82%
8 Key risks
AMAT key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Applied Materials (AMAT) stock has gained about 60% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Applied Materials delivered a strong beat on its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings and provided robust forward guidance that significantly exceeded analyst expectations.

The company reported Q1 FY2026 revenue of $7.01 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $6.88 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter came in at $2.38, an almost 8% beat over the consensus estimate of $2.21. Furthermore, GAAP EPS saw a substantial 75% year-over-year increase to $2.54. For fiscal Q2 2026, Applied Materials projected revenue between $7.15 billion and $8.15 billion, with the midpoint well above analysts' expectations. Management also indicated an expected growth of over 20% for its semiconductor equipment business in calendar year 2026, considerably higher than prior Street estimates of 11% year-over-year growth.

2. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the accelerating global investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

Applied Materials directly attributed its strong performance and optimistic outlook to the increasing industry investments in AI computing. CEO Gary Dickerson highlighted that the demand for higher-performance and more energy-efficient chips is fueling high growth rates in leading-edge logic, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging, all areas where Applied Materials has a strong market position. The company is considered the "#1 process equipment supplier" in these critical growth segments.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 59.3% change in AMAT stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252192026Change
Stock Price ($)232.35370.2059.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)28,61328,368-0.9%
Net Income Margin (%)23.9%24.7%3.3%
P/E Multiple27.142.155.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7987950.4%
Cumulative Contribution59.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMAT59.2% 
Market (SPY)0.4%63.8%
Sector (XLK)-6.7%72.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 106.8% change in AMAT stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252192026Change
Stock Price ($)178.97370.20106.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)28,08928,3681.0%
Net Income Margin (%)24.1%24.7%2.5%
P/E Multiple21.442.196.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8097951.8%
Cumulative Contribution106.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMAT106.6% 
Market (SPY)8.6%54.8%
Sector (XLK)6.9%64.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 107.6% change in AMAT stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252192026Change
Stock Price ($)178.34370.20107.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)27,17628,3684.4%
Net Income Margin (%)26.4%24.7%-6.6%
P/E Multiple20.442.1106.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8217953.3%
Cumulative Contribution107.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMAT107.4% 
Market (SPY)14.7%66.8%
Sector (XLK)22.1%74.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 241.5% change in AMAT stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 196.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232192026Change
Stock Price ($)108.39370.20241.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)25,78528,36810.0%
Net Income Margin (%)25.3%24.7%-2.5%
P/E Multiple14.242.1196.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8537957.3%
Cumulative Contribution241.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AMAT241.2% 
Market (SPY)74.7%64.3%
Sector (XLK)110.5%74.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AMAT Return84%-38%68%1%60%44%347%
Peers Return48%-33%34%-14%36%26%94%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%83%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AMAT Win Rate67%33%75%50%67%100% 
Peers Win Rate58%37%58%40%50%80% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AMAT Max Drawdown0%-52%-1%-8%-22%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-46%-11%-23%-29%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TXN, MCHP, PXLW, LRCX, AMAT. See AMAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/19/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAMATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven459 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven77.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven147 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-52.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven112.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven326 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-64.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven182.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,055 days1,480 days

Compare to TXN, MCHP, PXLW, LRCX, AMAT

In The Past

Applied Materials's stock fell -55.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -55.4% loss requires a 124.4% gain to breakeven.

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About Applied Materials (AMAT)

Applied Materials, Inc. provides manufacturing equipment, services, and software to the semiconductor, display, and related industries. It operates through three segments: Semiconductor Systems, Applied Global Services, and Display and Adjacent Markets. The Semiconductor Systems segment develops, manufactures, and sells various manufacturing equipment that is used to fabricate semiconductor chips or integrated circuits. This segment also offers various technologies, including epitaxy, ion implantation, oxidation/nitridation, rapid thermal processing, physical vapor deposition, chemical vapor deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, electrochemical deposition, atomic layer deposition, etching, and selective deposition and removal, as well as metrology and inspection tools. The Applied Global Services segment provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity comprising spares, upgrades, services, remanufactured earlier generation equipment, and factory automation software for semiconductor, display, and other products. The Display and Adjacent Markets segment offers products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays; organic light-emitting diodes; and other display technologies for TVs, monitors, laptops, personal computers, electronic tablets, smart phones, and other consumer-oriented devices. The company operates in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe. Applied Materials, Inc. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Applied Materials (AMAT):

  • Applied Materials is like **Caterpillar for the semiconductor industry**.
  • Applied Materials is like **Honeywell for advanced chip factories**.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: Provides a broad range of equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits, including deposition, etch, ion implantation, and process control systems.
  • Display Manufacturing Equipment: Offers equipment for producing displays used in smartphones, tablets, TVs, and other applications, such as for OLED and LCD manufacturing.
  • Related Services: Delivers services like spare parts, upgrades, maintenance, and consulting to maximize the performance and longevity of its installed equipment base.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Applied Materials (AMAT) primarily sells to other companies (B2B) within the semiconductor and display industries. Their major customers are leading manufacturers of semiconductors and advanced displays.

Here are some of their major customer companies:

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - TSM
  • Samsung Electronics - 005930.KS (primary listing)
  • Intel Corporation - INTC
  • Micron Technology, Inc. - MU
  • SK Hynix Inc. - 000660.KS (primary listing)

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI)
  • Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS)
  • VAT Group AG (VACN.SW)
  • Edwards Vacuum (part of Atlas Copco, ATCO-A.ST)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Gary Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer

Gary Dickerson has over 35 years of experience in the semiconductor industry. He became President of Applied Materials in 2012 and was appointed Chief Executive Officer and a member of the board of directors in September 2013. Prior to joining Applied Materials, he served as CEO of Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. for seven years until its acquisition by Applied Materials in 2011. He also spent 18 years at KLA-Tencor Corporation, where he held various operations and product development roles, ultimately serving as president and chief operating officer. His career began in manufacturing and engineering management at General Motors' Delco Electronics Division and AT&T Technologies.

Brice Hill, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Global Information Services

Brice Hill was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Applied Materials in March 2022, also overseeing Global Information Services. He is a semiconductor industry veteran with over 30 years of experience in finance, mergers and acquisitions, global operations, and strategy. Before Applied Materials, he was Executive Vice President and CFO of Xilinx, Inc. until its acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. He also spent 25 years at Intel Corporation, holding significant roles including CFO and Chief Operating Officer of the Technology, Systems and Core Engineering Group, and Corporate Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Business Unit Finance. Hill began his career with various finance positions at General Motors Corporation.

Omkaram Nalamasu, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, President of Applied Ventures, LLC

Omkaram Nalamasu is responsible for leading Applied Materials' technology strategy and overseeing its venture capital arm. His background includes previous roles at Bell Labs and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, and he holds a Ph.D. in Chemistry from The University of British Columbia.

Prabu G. Raja, President of the Semiconductor Products Group

Prabu G. Raja leads the development and execution of strategies for Applied Materials' semiconductor business. He has been with the company since 1995, previously serving as Senior Vice President, and possesses expertise in semiconductor technology and product innovation.

Teri Little, Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer, and Corporate Secretary

Teri Little oversees the legal and governance aspects of Applied Materials, ensuring compliance and managing risk for the company.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Applied Materials' (AMAT) business:

  1. Global Trade Issues and Export Regulations: Applied Materials faces significant risks from global trade issues, changes in trade policies, and export regulations, particularly those affecting sales to China. U.S. government export controls on semiconductor technology sold to China have limited market access and increased competition, which could adversely impact the company's business and operations, and reduce the competitiveness of its products.
  2. Cyclical Nature of the Semiconductor Industry and Customer Demand Volatility: The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical and subject to significant volatility in customer demand. This volatility is influenced by technology advancements, fabrication processes, and broader economic conditions, making it challenging to accurately forecast demand. Fluctuations can lead to customers delaying, canceling, or refraining from purchasing equipment and services, thereby negatively impacting revenue and operating results.
  3. Customer Concentration Risk: Applied Materials has a highly concentrated customer base, with a few large chipmakers accounting for a substantial portion of its business. A loss or reduction of business from any major customer could significantly impact the company's financial performance and market position.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The acceleration of China's domestic semiconductor equipment industry, driven by national self-sufficiency goals and international export controls, poses a clear emerging threat to Applied Materials (AMAT).

While still significantly behind global leaders in advanced technologies, Chinese equipment manufacturers (such as Naura Technology for etch and deposition, and SMEE for lithography) are receiving substantial state backing and are rapidly improving their capabilities, especially for mature node processes. As China continues to build out its domestic chip manufacturing capacity, there is a strong push to prioritize and adopt locally produced equipment. This trend could erode AMAT's market share within China over time, a crucial market for global semiconductor equipment suppliers, potentially forcing AMAT to compete with state-subsidized alternatives or face restrictions in accessing this large market.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Applied Materials (AMAT) participates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily within the semiconductor and display industries. The market sizes provided are global unless otherwise specified.

  • Physical Vapor Deposition (PVD) Equipment: The global PVD equipment market space is approximately $4.5 billion. More broadly, the global physical vapor deposition market (encompassing equipment, materials, and services) was valued at $21.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $33.1 billion by 2029. Another estimate places the total global PVD market at approximately $49.2 billion by 2033, with PVD equipment accounting for $11.8 billion of that in 2023. Applied Materials holds a dominant position in PVD equipment, with over 80% market share.
  • Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) Equipment: The global CVD equipment market space is approximately $13 billion. Other analyses indicate the global Chemical Vapor Deposition market was valued at $22.36 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $40.16 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 9.1%. The market is also projected to cross $49.47 billion by 2032 from $26.53 billion in 2025. The semiconductor CVD equipment segment accounts for approximately 60% of the combined semiconductor CVD and PVD equipment market.
  • Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) Equipment: The global ALD equipment market space is approximately $3 billion.
  • Etch Equipment: The global semiconductor etch equipment market size was valued at $25.40 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $36.80 billion by 2030. Other projections estimate the market to grow from $28.578 billion in 2025 to $37.024 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 5.32%. Applied Materials holds approximately 15% of the etching market share.
  • Advanced Packaging: The global advanced packaging market size was valued at $45.73 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $113.33 billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 9.50% from 2025 to 2033. Other estimates indicate a market size of $38.5 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $111.4 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 11.5%. Applied Materials' advanced packaging portfolio generated close to $1.7 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024 and is expected to double in size.
  • Display Equipment: Global display equipment spending is expected to reach a cumulative $76 billion during the 2020-2027 period. Applied Materials' MAX OLED solution is anticipated to more than double the company's served addressable market opportunity in OLED display manufacturing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors in the semiconductor industry:

  1. AI-Driven Demand and Advanced Logic Transitions: The increasing global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is a significant catalyst for Applied Materials. This demand necessitates advanced manufacturing equipment and processes to produce next-generation AI chips, including those utilizing new device architectures like Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors. The transition to these advanced nodes is anticipated to substantially increase Applied Materials' available market and revenue per wafer start.
  2. Robust Growth in DRAM and High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM): The memory segment, particularly Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM) and its advanced variant, High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is a strong driver for Applied Materials. Analysts anticipate significant growth in DRAM revenues, with some projections indicating a substantial increase for leading-edge DRAM customers. Applied Materials' solutions are crucial for enabling these advanced memory technologies, which are essential for AI and data center applications.
  3. Expansion of Applied Global Services (AGS): The Applied Global Services (AGS) segment consistently delivers record revenue and is expected to continue its growth trajectory. AGS provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance, including spares, upgrades, services, and factory automation software. This segment offers stable and recurring revenue, with a high service contract renewal rate, enhancing the company's overall financial stability and growth.
  4. Growth in Advanced Packaging Technologies: Advanced packaging is emerging as a critical growth area, particularly driven by demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and chiplets. These technologies add complexity to the manufacturing process, requiring more sophisticated equipment for wafer thinning, planarization, through-silicon interconnects, and hybrid bonding. Applied Materials is strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend, with expectations for significant growth in this sector over the next several years.
  5. Increasing Complexity and Number of Manufacturing Steps per Chip: As semiconductor technology advances, new chip generations require more intricate designs and a higher number of manufacturing steps per wafer. This trend, encompassing innovations like new GAA transistors, backside power delivery networks (BSPDN), and denser interconnects, inherently increases Applied Materials' "share of wallet" with its customers. The company's leadership in materials engineering positions it to benefit from the increasing process steps required for advanced chip fabrication.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Applied Materials announced a new $10 billion share repurchase authorization in March 2025, complementing an existing authorization that had approximately $7.6 billion remaining at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025.
  • In March 2023, the company announced another $10 billion share-buyback program.
  • Over the past four fiscal years (ending Q1 FY25), Applied Materials returned $19.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Share Issuance

  • No significant share issuance events (e.g., large secondary offerings) were identified within the last 3-5 years.

Inbound Investments

  • Nuveen LLC acquired a new position in Applied Materials shares, valued at approximately $1.0856 billion, during the first quarter of 2025.

Outbound Investments

  • In April 2025, Applied Materials strategically acquired a 9% stake in BE Semiconductor Industries (Besi) to enhance collaboration in hybrid bonding technology.
  • Applied Ventures, Applied Materials' venture capital arm, made a growth equity investment in VVDN Technologies in February 2024 to expand R&D.
  • Applied Materials acquired Picosun, a developer of thin film coating machinery, in June 2022.

Capital Expenditures

  • Applied Materials' capital expenditures were $3.271 billion in fiscal year 2020, increasing to $9.247 billion in fiscal year 2024.
  • The latest twelve months' capital expenditures (as of July 2025) totaled $14.773 billion.
  • The company's capital expenditures are primarily focused on investing in AI-optimized manufacturing tools and enabling advanced node production for chipmakers, supporting next-generation chip technologies and energy-efficient computing.

Interactive Breakdown

Applied Materials Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. Applied Materials (AMAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Applied Materials Stock Gained 90%02/14/2026
2Does Applied Materials Stock Lead the Pack?02/14/2026
3Applied Materials Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Earnings & AI-Driven Guidance02/13/2026
4Momentum Meets Value: Applied Materials Stock Could Be A Good Buy02/06/2026
5What Could Set Applied Materials Stock on Fire01/31/2026
6What Is Happening With Applied Materials Stock?01/29/2026
7Applied Materials Stock Surges 26% In A Single Month, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock01/17/2026
8Buying AMAT at a Discount? You Are Getting Paid to Do It01/16/2026
9Applied Materials Stock Surged 80%, Here's Why01/13/2026
10AMAT Stock Surges 6% With A 7-day Winning Spree On Analyst Price Hikes12/30/2026
11ARTICLES 
12S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High02/19/2026
13Is Applied Materials Stock Outperforming Its Rivals?02/14/2026
14Why Applied Materials Stock Jumped 90%?02/14/2026
15S&P 500 Movers | Winners: COIN, AMAT, DXCM | Losers: STZ, NCLH, NVR02/14/2026
16Applied Materials Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Earnings & AI-Driven Guidance02/13/2026
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1How Applied Materials Stock Gained 90%
2Does Applied Materials Stock Lead the Pack?
3Applied Materials Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Earnings & AI-Driven Guidance
4Momentum Meets Value: Applied Materials Stock Could Be A Good Buy
5What Could Set Applied Materials Stock on Fire
6What Is Happening With Applied Materials Stock?
7Applied Materials Stock Surges 26% In A Single Month, Now Is Not The Time To Buy The Stock
8Buying AMAT at a Discount? You Are Getting Paid to Do It
9Applied Materials Stock Surged 80%, Here's Why
10AMAT Stock Surges 6% With A 7-day Winning Spree On Analyst Price Hikes
11ARTICLES
12S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High
13Is Applied Materials Stock Outperforming Its Rivals?
14Why Applied Materials Stock Jumped 90%?
15S&P 500 Movers | Winners: COIN, AMAT, DXCM | Losers: STZ, NCLH, NVR
16Applied Materials Stock Pre-Market (+13%) : Blowout Earnings & AI-Driven Guidance

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to AMAT.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ROP_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026ROPRoper TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-13.4%-13.4%-13.8%
TDC_1302026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield01302026TDCTeradataDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		17.7%17.7%-8.7%
CVLT_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026CVLTCommVault SystemsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		2.3%2.3%-5.1%
NTNX_1302026_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE01302026NTNXNutanixDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		6.2%6.2%-6.3%
FICO_1302026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper01302026FICOFair IsaacMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		-8.1%-8.1%-9.2%
AMAT_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025AMATApplied MaterialsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		121.2%121.2%-2.8%
AMAT_2282025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper02282025AMATApplied MaterialsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		2.3%126.3%-19.7%
AMAT_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022AMATApplied MaterialsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		25.2%63.9%-20.9%
AMAT_5312019_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312019AMATApplied MaterialsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		50.8%47.4%-0.7%

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

AMATTXNMCHPPXLWLRCXMedian
NameApplied .Texas In.Microchi.Pixelwor.Lam Rese. 
Mkt Price370.20218.0577.206.03237.39218.05
Mkt Cap294.3198.241.70.0297.9198.2
Rev LTM28,36817,6824,3723320,56117,682
Op Inc LTM8,4706,140277-246,9426,140
FCF LTM5,6982,603820-206,2162,603
FCF 3Y Avg6,9261,8171,535-215,0451,817
CFO LTM7,9587,153911-207,1227,122
CFO 3Y Avg8,4456,6301,735-185,6455,645

Growth & Margins

AMATTXNMCHPPXLWLRCXMedian
NameApplied .Texas In.Microchi.Pixelwor.Lam Rese. 
Rev Chg LTM4.4%13.0%-8.1%-38.7%26.8%4.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.2%-3.4%-15.4%-20.6%5.1%-3.4%
Rev Chg Q-3.5%10.4%15.6%-7.9%22.1%10.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.9%2.4%3.8%-2.2%4.9%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM29.9%34.7%6.3%-72.2%33.8%29.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg29.2%36.9%19.0%-57.2%30.3%29.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.1%2.7%8.4%0.8%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM28.1%40.5%20.8%-59.4%34.6%28.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.9%39.2%27.2%-40.5%33.2%30.9%
FCF/Rev LTM20.1%14.7%18.8%-61.0%30.2%18.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg25.4%10.7%24.0%-45.8%29.7%24.0%

Valuation

AMATTXNMCHPPXLWLRCXMedian
NameApplied .Texas In.Microchi.Pixelwor.Lam Rese. 
Mkt Cap294.3198.241.70.0297.9198.2
P/S10.411.29.51.014.510.4
P/EBIT30.931.7238.8-1.341.531.7
P/E42.139.6-606.8-1.447.939.6
P/CFO37.027.745.8-1.741.837.0
Total Yield2.9%5.0%1.6%-73.7%2.5%2.5%
Dividend Yield0.5%2.5%1.8%0.0%0.4%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.7%1.1%3.8%-45.2%4.0%3.8%
D/E0.00.10.10.10.00.1
Net D/E-0.00.00.1-0.3-0.0-0.0

Returns

AMATTXNMCHPPXLWLRCXMedian
NameApplied .Texas In.Microchi.Pixelwor.Lam Rese. 
1M Rtn16.5%15.8%5.5%-14.5%6.7%6.7%
3M Rtn68.3%43.1%57.5%3.3%70.3%57.5%
6M Rtn132.3%10.3%18.7%-22.8%142.1%18.7%
12M Rtn115.1%14.6%25.2%-41.3%173.3%25.2%
3Y Rtn229.9%36.1%-0.7%-71.6%394.2%36.1%
1M Excs Rtn15.5%14.8%4.6%-15.4%5.8%5.8%
3M Excs Rtn59.5%38.8%46.5%-1.3%58.4%46.5%
6M Excs Rtn122.6%6.0%14.2%-33.0%130.4%14.2%
12M Excs Rtn105.7%8.7%25.7%-51.6%164.7%25.7%
3Y Excs Rtn160.9%-30.8%-67.4%-137.7%314.2%-30.8%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Semiconductor Systems19,69818,79716,28611,367
Applied Global Services5,7325,5435,0134,155
Display8681,3311,6341,607
Corporate and Other21911413073
Total26,51725,78523,06317,202


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil2025202420232022
Semiconductor Systems6,8796,9696,3113,714
Applied Global Services1,5291,6611,5081,127
Display114260314291
Corporate and Other-868-1,102-1,244-767
Total7,6547,7886,8894,365


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$369.83 
Market Cap ($ Bil)294.0 
First Trading Date09/07/1984 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$299.95$219.58
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA23.3%68.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility47.3%47.5%
Downside Capture210.10171.14
Upside Capture449.62230.05
Correlation (SPY)63.4%67.7%
AMAT Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.802.852.622.321.641.76
Up Beta0.531.641.591.081.491.60
Down Beta1.172.002.351.941.401.47
Up Capture737%547%514%540%433%1670%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days12253875137393
Down Capture268%243%202%204%138%112%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days8162350114359

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AMAT
AMAT118.1%47.4%1.79-
Sector ETF (XLK)16.4%27.5%0.5375.6%
Equity (SPY)13.0%19.4%0.5167.7%
Gold (GLD)71.2%25.5%2.0811.3%
Commodities (DBC)7.3%16.9%0.2524.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.4%16.7%0.2032.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.2%44.9%-0.6631.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AMAT
AMAT27.9%43.7%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLK)16.1%24.8%0.5977.8%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.0%0.6269.9%
Gold (GLD)22.0%17.1%1.0514.1%
Commodities (DBC)11.0%19.0%0.4718.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.8%18.8%0.1636.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)6.9%57.1%0.3428.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with AMAT
AMAT38.5%42.1%0.92-
Sector ETF (XLK)23.2%24.2%0.8776.5%
Equity (SPY)15.8%17.9%0.7670.4%
Gold (GLD)15.0%15.6%0.807.4%
Commodities (DBC)8.7%17.6%0.4122.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.8%20.7%0.2942.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)67.7%66.7%1.0719.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 1152026-14.6%
Average Daily Volume7.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.8 days
Basic Shares Quantity795.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/12/20268.1%  
11/13/20251.2%-1.3%16.0%
8/14/2025-14.1%-14.8%-8.9%
5/15/2025-5.3%-7.9%1.3%
2/13/2025-8.2%-6.5%-15.4%
11/14/2024-9.2%-5.3%-8.7%
8/15/2024-1.9%-5.3%-11.3%
2/15/20246.3%5.2%7.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101112
# Negative141211
Median Positive3.8%2.7%5.2%
Median Negative-3.9%-5.2%-11.3%
Max Positive8.1%11.0%27.2%
Max Negative-14.1%-14.8%-21.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
10/31/202512/12/202510-K
07/31/202508/21/202510-Q
04/30/202505/22/202510-Q
01/31/202502/20/202510-Q
10/31/202412/13/202410-K
07/31/202408/22/202410-Q
04/30/202405/23/202410-Q
01/31/202402/27/202410-Q
10/31/202312/15/202310-K
07/31/202308/24/202310-Q
04/30/202305/26/202310-Q
01/31/202302/23/202310-Q
10/31/202212/16/202210-K
07/31/202208/25/202210-Q
04/30/202205/26/202210-Q
01/31/202202/24/202210-Q

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Sanders, AdamCorp. Controller & CAODirectSell12032025255.53609155,6201,127,672Form
2Little, Teri ASVP, CLODirectSell11262025238.244,000952,94220,095,403Form
3Little, Teri ASVP, CLODirectSell11212025234.084,000936,32120,681,220Form
4Sanders, AdamCorp. Controller & CAODirectSell6252025178.60562100,373946,580Form
5Dickerson, Gary EPresident and CEODirectBuy4072025137.3050,0006,865,082235,617,571Form

AMAT Trade Sentinel

Core Investment Debate

Secular AI Boom vs. Cyclical/Geopolitical Reality

BULL VIEW

The AI-driven demand for advanced chips is a multi-year supercycle. This will force customers to increase CapEx, overriding near-term headwinds and driving a strong H2 2026 recovery.

CORE TENSION

The market prices in a powerful AI-driven recovery while current data shows decelerating orders, negative revenue growth, and tangible impact from US-China export controls.

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The Order Backlog, a key forward-looking metric, declined 5.5% YoY to $15.0B in the latest quarter (Oct 2025), indicating a tangible slowdown in customer demand.

BEAR VIEW

The declining backlog, quantified $600M China revenue impact, and ongoing DOJ investigation are being ignored. The stock's high valuation is disconnected from these weakening fundamentals.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Q1-Q2 2026 Earnings Calls
Key Customer CapEx Guidance (Intel, Samsung)
Watch: Downward revisions to FY2026 CapEx plans or commentary about a 'digestion phase' after heavy spending.
Anytime
Escalation of US-China Tech Export Controls
Watch: Any announcement from the U.S. Dept. of Commerce adding new Chinese firms to the Entity List or restricting new tool types.
Next 30-90 Days
Memory Sector Capex Guidance (Micron, SK Hynix)
Watch: Memory producers' guidance on inventory levels and pricing. A forecast of weakness implies WFE spending cuts.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
8/15/2025
Q3 FY2025 Earnings Report
Details: The company reported earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations, demonstrating solid execution despite early signs of a market slowdown.
Modest 1.1% gain
$160.97 -> $162.74
9/18/2025
AI Narrative Gains Momentum
Details: A broad-based rally in semiconductor stocks occurred as multiple analyst reports highlighted an AI-driven demand 'supercycle', boosting sentiment for equipment providers like AMAT.
Surged +6.53%
$177.78 -> $189.38
11/4/2025
Reports on DOJ Investigation
Details: Stock dropped on heightened investor concern following media reports detailing the ongoing DOJ and SEC investigations into potential evasion of China export restrictions.
Fell notably by 3.16%
$237.24 -> $229.73
11/13/2025
Q4 FY2025 Earnings & Guidance
Details: AMAT beat consensus estimates for revenue and EPS. However, it also quantified a $600M negative revenue impact for FY2026 from new US export controls on China.
Modest 1.25% gain
$223.23 -> $226.01
1/5/2026
Key Customer Signals Major Capex Increase
Details: Stock rallied following reports confirming key customer TSMC's plan to boost 2026 CapEx by ~32%, signaling strong demand for advanced equipment driven by the AI arms race.
Surged +5.75%
$268.87 -> $284.32
1/29/2026
Stock Hits 52-Week High
Details: Shares reached a new 52-week high as investor enthusiasm for the AI infrastructure build-out narrative continued, pushing valuations across the semiconductor sector higher.
Modest 1.36% gain
$336.75 -> $341.34
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Given the bearish sentiment, high relative volatility, and contested moat, a conservative allocation is prudent until fundamentals show clearer signs of recovery or de-risking events pass.

Diversification Alternatives
Stock Conviction

OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The calculated probability-adjusted skew is greater than 2.0x. The investment thesis rests on a powerful, secular AI-driven capital spending cycle, which is supported by strong leading indicators (customer capex plans). While the stock's valuation is elevated and its competitive position is contested, the sheer force of the AI 'rising tide' provides a significant tailwind that outweighs the quantifiable geopolitical risks. The risk/reward profile is highly attractive.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / Commodity

AMAT's revenue is directly tied to the capital expenditure cycles of semiconductor manufacturers. Its business performance is determined by the supply/demand balance for wafer fab equipment (WFE), making it a classic cyclical company where timing the cycle is critical.

INVESTMENT THESIS
AI-Driven Foundry & DRAM Capex Cycle Fueling Leading-Edge Equipment Demand into 2026-2027

The primary long thesis for AMAT is its position as a key enabler of the artificial intelligence and high-performance computing megatrend. This secular shift necessitates the buildout of leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing capacity for new, complex chip architectures like Gate-All-Around (GAA). This is not a typical cyclical recovery; it is a technology-driven arms race.

Mechanism: Leading semiconductor manufacturers (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) must purchase AMAT's advanced deposition and process control equipment to manufacture next-generation AI accelerators and memory. Increased capital intensity for these new nodes directly translates to higher revenue and a richer product mix for AMAT's Semiconductor Systems segment.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Leading customer TSMC is increasing 2026 CapEx to $52-$56 billion, a YoY growth of approximately 32%, with 70-80% allocated to advanced process technologies.
  • Management is preparing for higher demand in the second half of calendar 2026, driven by AI adoption.
  • FY25 non-GAAP gross margin was the highest in 25 years, driven by a favorable mix of advanced systems for AI workloads.
PRIMARY RISK
US Export Controls on China Constraining Total Addressable Market in FY2026

The most significant and quantifiable headwind is the U.S. government's escalating export restrictions on China's semiconductor industry. This is not a cyclical or competitive issue, but a direct regulatory barrier that removes a material portion of the market from AMAT's reach, irrespective of the strong global demand from other regions.

Mechanism: Regulations from the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) prohibit AMAT from selling certain advanced tools and services to specific Chinese customers. This directly reduces the company's revenue potential and creates uncertainty around future restrictions.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Management has quantified the negative revenue impact at approximately $600 million for the full fiscal year 2026.
  • The risk is classified as 'Regulatory/Geopolitical' and is a structural change to the company's addressable market in a key geography.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Key Customer CapEx Guidance (TSMC, Intel, Samsung)Maintain or Increase 2026/2027 ForecastsThis is the most critical leading indicator for future equipment demand and the primary driver of the entire investment thesis.
Semiconductor Systems Revenue GrowthReturn to Positive YoY growth in H2 2026This is the core, high-margin growth engine. A return to growth will validate that the cyclical trough is over and the AI-driven recovery has begun.
Order BacklogStabilization and Sequential GrowthWhile the company has de-emphasized this metric, a reversal of the recent declining trend would provide tangible evidence of improving near-term demand.

External Quote Links


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