Airgain (AIRG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.95 | Market Cap: $46.8 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Communications Equipment
Airgain (AIRG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.95Market Cap: $46.8 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Communications Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Network Equipment, Wireless Services, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include 5G & Advanced Connectivity, and Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include Network Equipment, Wireless Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -8.9 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -16% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AIRG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Airgain provided a lower-than-expected revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting a sequential decline of approximately 7% to a midpoint of $13 million. This anticipated moderation in consumer and enterprise sales likely contributed to investor concern.
2. The company continued to face challenges from channel inventory overhang and delays in government agency project deployments affecting its aftermarket antenna and enterprise custom products. These issues were highlighted as persistent, with projections to last through 2026, suggesting ongoing headwinds for the company.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIRG Return | 66% | -40% | -39% | -45% | 98% | -43% | -63% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 41% | -13% | 6% | 11% | 70% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIRG Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 37% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 42% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIRG Max Drawdown | -44% | -48% | -44% | -74% | -7% | -57% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -3% | -24% | -27% | -26% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1571.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1147 days | 120 days |
Compare to VSAT, ADTN, FIEE, CSCO, ANET
In The Past
Airgain's stock fell -94.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -94.0% loss requires a 1571.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Airgain Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AIRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Airgain
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,800 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2 |
| CFO LTM | 553 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 388 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -5.6 |
| P/E | -3.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | -11.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 21.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 11.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -64.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5112023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3202023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3212022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11092021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |