Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.54 | Market Cap: $524.2 MilSector: Real Estate | Industry: Diversified REITs
Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.54Market Cap: $524.2 MilSector: Real EstateIndustry: Diversified REITs
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 278% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include ESG REITs, Green Building Certification, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include ESG REITs, Green Building Certification, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 278% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -49% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AHH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH) stock moved by -8.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. Analyst Price Target Reductions: Multiple analysts lowered their price targets for Armada Hoffler Properties during this period. For example, on August 25, 2025, Jefferies and B of A Securities both adjusted their price targets downward from $7.5 to $7. This trend continued in November, with Scotiabank reducing its target from $8 to $7 on November 13, 2025. These repeated downward revisions from financial analysts likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and a re-evaluation of the company's valuation. 2. Year-over-Year Decline in Q3 EPS: Although Armada Hoffler Properties reported a Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29, which exceeded analysts' expectations of $0.13, this figure represented a decline compared to the $0.35 EPS reported in the same quarter of the previous year. This year-over-year decrease in earnings, despite beating current estimates, could have raised concerns among investors regarding the company's sustained profitability and growth trajectory.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AHH Return | -36% | 42% | -20% | 15% | -11% | -32% | -49% |
| Peers Return | -12% | 47% | -30% | 1% | 10% | -20% | -20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AHH Win Rate | 33% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 72% | 35% | 47% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AHH Max Drawdown | -60% | -4% | -30% | -9% | -18% | -38% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -9% | -40% | -26% | -20% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ALEX, GOOD, OLP, PINE, SQFT. See AHH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AHH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 120 days |
Compare to ALEX, GOOD, OLP, PINE, SQFT
In The Past
Armada Hoffler Properties's stock fell -35.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -35.2% loss requires a 54.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AHH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | MPW | Medical Properties Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 8.5% | 8.5% | -5.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Armada Hoffler Properties
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 13.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 126 |
| Op Inc LTM | 45 |
| FCF LTM | 45 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 42 |
| CFO LTM | 51 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 55 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 44.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 3.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.8 |
| P/E | 15.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -12.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -28.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -18.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -42.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -88.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General Contracting and Real Estate Services | 413 | 235 | 92 | 217 | 106 |
| Retail Real Estate | 100 | 86 | 79 | 73 | 78 |
| Office Real Estate | 83 | 74 | 47 | 43 | 33 |
| Multifamily Real Estate | 56 | 59 | 66 | 50 | 40 |
| Real Estate Financing | 14 | 16 | |||
| Other | 1 | ||||
| Interest income | 1 | ||||
| Total | 667 | 471 | 284 | 384 | 257 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Real Estate | 12 | ||||
| General Contracting and Real Estate Services | 12 | ||||
| Real Estate Financing | 9 | ||||
| Multifamily Real Estate | 7 | ||||
| Office Real Estate | -14 | ||||
| Other | -20 | ||||
| Total | 8 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Apperson Eric E. | President of Construction | 8192025 | Sell | 7.12 | 48,837 | 347,902 | 75,850 | Form |
| 1 | Wimbush Frederick Blair | 7092025 | Buy | 6.94 | 475 | 3,299 | 166,239 | Form | |
| 2 | KIRK A RUSSELL | 4072025 | Buy | 7.24 | 954 | 6,904 | 363,788 | Form | |
| 3 | Wimbush Frederick Blair | 4072025 | Buy | 7.42 | 183 | 1,360 | 158,194 | Form | |
| 4 | KIRK A RUSSELL | 3272025 | Buy | 7.73 | 50,000 | 386,300 | 922,716 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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