Advantage Solutions (ADV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.9587 | Market Cap: $312.5 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Advantage Solutions (ADV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.9587Market Cap: $312.5 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% | Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.82 | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 296% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.6% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -116%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.82 |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 1.0 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 296% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Missed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Estimates. Advantage Solutions (ADV) reported a significant miss on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for the third quarter of 2025. The company announced an EPS of $0.06, substantially lower than the consensus analyst estimate of $0.24. Additionally, quarterly revenue came in at $915.0 million, falling short of analyst projections of $933.56 million to $942.9 million.
2. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook. Following the third-quarter results, Advantage Solutions reaffirmed its revenue guidance but modestly lowered its Adjusted EBITDA outlook for the full fiscal year 2025. The company cited the impact of its Acxion divestiture and a challenging macroeconomic environment as reasons for this reduced profitability expectation.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADV Return | 27% | -39% | -74% | 74% | -19% | -69% | -91% |
| Peers Return | 94% | 12% | -23% | 25% | 16% | -28% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADV Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 51% | 40% | 58% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADV Max Drawdown | -21% | -47% | -77% | -45% | -24% | -69% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -18% | -43% | -14% | -19% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1059.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
Compare to DV, TTD, OMC, IPG, MGNI
In The Past
Advantage Solutions's stock fell -91.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -91.4% loss requires a 1059.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Advantage Solutions Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.5% | -0.5% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -22.5% | -22.5% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Advantage Solutions
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,147 |
| Op Inc LTM | 307 |
| FCF LTM | 420 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 382 |
| CFO LTM | 551 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 473 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 31.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -18.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -32.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -23.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -47.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -29.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -34.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -37.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -60.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -94.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Services | 1,758 | ||||
| Experiential Services | 1,159 | ||||
| Retailer Services | 982 | ||||
| Marketing | 1,543 | 1,278 | 1,095 | 1,830 | |
| Sales | 2,507 | 2,324 | 2,061 | 1,955 | |
| Total | 3,900 | 4,050 | 3,602 | 3,156 | 3,785 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Services | 27 | ||||
| Retailer Services | 16 | ||||
| Experiential Services | 3 | ||||
| Marketing | -116 | 48 | 4 | 86 | |
| Sales | -1,323 | 183 | 63 | 128 | |
| Total | 47 | -1,439 | 230 | 67 | 214 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | KILTS JAMES M | 6102025 | Buy | 1.29 | 9,700 | 12,485 | 1,767,806 | Form | |
| 1 | KILTS JAMES M | 6062025 | Buy | 1.29 | 5,494 | 7,103 | 1,742,727 | Form | |
| 2 | KILTS JAMES M | 6042025 | Buy | 1.21 | 16,491 | 19,873 | 1,589,788 | Form | |
| 3 | KILTS JAMES M | 6022025 | Buy | 1.28 | 11,400 | 14,570 | 1,639,929 | Form | |
| 4 | KILTS JAMES M | 5292025 | Buy | 1.27 | 10,003 | 12,706 | 1,436,050 | Form |
External Quote Links
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