Advantage Solutions (ADV)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $29.24 | Market Cap: $381.6 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Advertising
Advantage Solutions (ADV)
Market Price (4/13/2026): $29.24Market Cap: $381.6 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Advertising
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 385% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1785% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -64% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2657% Key risksADV key risks include [1] its substantial indebtedness and high leverage resulting in significant interest expenses, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Digital Advertising. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -105%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 385% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.7% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1785% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -64% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 2657% |
| Key risksADV key risks include [1] its substantial indebtedness and high leverage resulting in significant interest expenses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Improved Financial Stability and Cash Flow Performance: Advantage Solutions reported a significantly narrowed net loss for the full year 2025, decreasing to $227.7 million from $378.4 million in the prior year. The company also demonstrated strong cash flow, ending 2025 with $241 million in cash, a sequential increase of $40 million in the fourth quarter, and generating $223.3 million in Adjusted Unlevered Free Cash Flow for the full year 2025.
2. Strategic Actions to Strengthen Financial Foundation: Management's decisive actions, including the divestiture of non-core assets that generated approximately $55 million in proceeds and ongoing efforts to refinance debt to extend maturities to 2030, were viewed positively by investors. These initiatives aimed to enhance the company's financial flexibility and balance sheet.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.9% change in ADV stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.00 | 29.24 | 32.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,503 | 3,543 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | 31.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADV | 32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | -26.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.5% | -29.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.6% change in ADV stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.25 | 29.24 | -23.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,527 | 3,543 | 0.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -23.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADV | -23.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | -18.7% |
| Sector (XLC) | -2.7% | -23.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -22.5% change in ADV stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.75 | 29.24 | -22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,566 | 3,543 | -0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -20.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -22.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADV | -22.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | -8.5% |
| Sector (XLC) | 20.1% | -12.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.0% change in ADV stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.50 | 29.24 | -26.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,646 | 3,543 | -2.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -22.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 13 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADV | -26.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | -5.3% |
| Sector (XLC) | 104.0% | -7.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADV Return | -39% | -74% | 74% | -19% | -70% | 21% | -92% |
| Peers Return | 50% | -3% | 14% | 26% | -33% | -29% | -1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADV Win Rate | 25% | 25% | 67% | 33% | 25% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 44% | 54% | 56% | 40% | 19% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADV Max Drawdown | -47% | -77% | -45% | -24% | -71% | -97% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -25% | -15% | -8% | -41% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: OMC, ACN, IT, SGRP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1059.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,071 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
Compare to OMC, ACN, IT, SGRP
In The Past
Advantage Solutions's stock fell -91.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2021. A -91.4% loss requires a 1059.1% gain to breakeven.
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About Advantage Solutions (ADV)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Advantage Solutions:Accenture for consumer goods sales and marketing.
A blend of a global marketing agency (like WPP) and a vast sales and merchandising force for consumer brands and retailers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Sales & Account Management: Services that manage relationships between consumer goods companies and retailers, including headquarter relationship management and administrative support.
- Merchandising Services: In-store product placement and display management, tailored for either specific brands or the overall retail environment.
- Data Analytics & Insights: Providing data-driven intelligence and insights to optimize sales and marketing strategies for brands.
- Shopper & Consumer Marketing: Designing and executing marketing campaigns and experiential events that engage shoppers and consumers for specific brands.
- Digital Commerce & Marketing: Services focused on driving online sales, digital advertising, and overall digital marketing strategies for brands and retailers.
- In-Store Media & Advertising: Creating and managing advertising placements and media within physical retail stores to influence purchasing decisions.
- Private Label Development: Assisting retailers in developing and marketing their own exclusive brand products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Advantage Solutions (ADV)
Advantage Solutions (ADV) primarily sells its outsourced solutions to other companies.
Based on the provided company description, its major customers are broadly categorized as:
- Consumer Goods Companies
- Retailers
The provided background information does not list specific names of individual customer companies.
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Dave Peacock, Chief Executive Officer
Dave Peacock was named Advantage Solutions CEO in January 2023. He brings over 30 years of experience in the consumer packaged goods and retail industry. His career includes four years as president and chief operating officer of Schnuck Markets, Inc., and two decades at Anheuser-Busch, where he served three years as the company's president. Prior to joining Advantage, Peacock was chief operating officer and on the board of directors of Continental Grain Company, a global investor, owner, and operator of companies across the food and agribusiness spectrum. He also founded and served as chairman of Vitaligent, LLC, a multi-unit restaurant franchise. Peacock is a member of the board of directors of Stifel Financial Corp. and Wayne-Sanderson Farms. He led the reorganization of Advantage Solutions to a unified enterprise with three business units to improve efficiency and focus on growth.
Chris Growe, Chief Financial Officer
Chris Growe leads Advantage Solutions' finance organization, including investor relations, accounting, payroll, treasury, and tax. He has more than 25 years of finance and investment experience. Most recently, he was a managing director at Stifel, an investment banking firm, where he covered food and tobacco stocks. Before Stifel, Growe was an analyst with A.G. Edwards and began his career in marketing at Anheuser-Busch. He joined Advantage Solutions in 2023.
Michael Taylor, Chief Operating Officer, Retailer and Experiential Services
Michael Taylor leads Advantage Solutions' global retailer services and non-Costco experiential businesses, overseeing an extensive portfolio of end-to-end retail solutions. He previously served as president of Daymon and held various leadership positions earlier in his career with PepsiCo Inc.
Bob Hardester, Chief Information Officer
Bob Hardester leads Advantage Solutions' enterprise information technology organization, overseeing global IT systems and advancing digital capabilities. He has over 30 years of experience in digital transformation, enterprise technology, and AI-driven innovation. Most recently, he served as Chief Information Officer and Chief Supply Chain Officer at Schnuck Markets, where he played a key role in positioning the company as an industry innovation leader. He was appointed CIO effective March 2, 2026.
Bryce Robinson, General Counsel
Bryce Robinson is responsible for the oversight of Advantage Solutions' legal department, providing counsel on a wide array of business matters, including mergers and acquisitions, financing, international joint ventures, private equity transactions, compliance, corporate governance, and commercial contracts. Prior to joining Advantage, he was senior vice president, general counsel, and secretary at InSight Health, a healthcare services company.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Advantage Solutions' business are:- Substantial Indebtedness and High Leverage: Advantage Solutions faces significant financial risk due to its substantial indebtedness, with net debt reported at approximately $1.577 billion as of March 31, 2025, and a net leverage ratio of 4.4x as of Q3 2025. This high leverage results in considerable interest expenses, impacting cash flow, and poses refinancing risks, especially given the current interest rate environment. The company's Altman Z-Score of 0.01 suggests a potential risk of bankruptcy within two years.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Client Spending Pullbacks: The company is exposed to market volatility and cyclicality, particularly due to macroeconomic headwinds such as a soft consumer environment and reduced spending by Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) clients. This has notably impacted the Branded Services segment, which experienced declining revenues. Client procurement strategies, industry consolidation, and evolving relationships with CPG manufacturers and retailers can also exert pressure on service pricing and demand.
- Increased Labor Costs and Talent Retention: As a service-oriented company with a large workforce, Advantage Solutions is significantly exposed to market-driven wage increases and changes in labor laws or regulations, including minimum wage. The ability to recruit, train, and retain a skilled workforce is crucial, and elevated labor costs contribute to margin compression, impacting profitability.
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The rapid advancement and accessibility of AI-driven platforms and tools are emerging as a clear threat. These platforms enable consumer goods companies and retailers to automate, optimize, and execute digital marketing campaigns, media buying, data analytics, and even aspects of e-commerce management directly and with increasing efficiency. This technological shift could empower Advantage Solutions' clients to bring capabilities in-house or manage them with fewer external resources, potentially disintermediating Advantage Solutions' outsourced services in areas such as digital marketing, digital media and advertising, and analytics, insights, and intelligence.
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Advantage Solutions (ADV) operates within the significant outsourced sales and marketing services markets, both globally and specifically in North America.
For the **global sales and marketing business process outsourcing market**, the addressable market was estimated at USD 28.65 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 57.46 billion by 2030, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2023 to 2030. Another estimate valued this global market at US$33.3 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach US$51.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.5% from 2024 to 2030. Additionally, the global market for Sales and Marketing Business Process Outsourcing is expected to reach $49.2 billion by 2028, with a growth rate of 9.5% CAGR. This market was also valued at US$ 40,820.3 million in 2025, with an estimated CAGR of 10.1% from 2025 to 2033.
Focusing on **North America**, the sales and marketing business process outsourcing market is a dominant region. The U.S. market within North America was projected to achieve a market value of $12,975.2 million by 2028. In 2022, North America held the largest share of the global sales and marketing BPO market, accounting for 48.35%. Furthermore, the U.S. market was valued at $9.1 Billion in 2024.
Regarding the **global outsourced sales services market**, it was valued at approximately USD 2.71 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 4.21 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of roughly 4.50% between 2025 and 2034. Another report estimated the outsourced sales service market size at USD 3093.27 million in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 4494.83 million by 2033 with a CAGR of 4.2% from 2025 to 2033. Specifically for B2B outsourced sales services, the global market was $105.39 billion in 2024 and is expected to double by 2033.
**North America** leads the global outsourced sales services market. In 2023, North America accounted for over 41% of global outsourcing contracts, with more than 68,000 U.S. companies outsourcing at least one sales function. The region accounts for 42% of global outsourced sales spending, and the U.S. market is projected to grow at an annual rate of 8.5% from 2021 to 2026.
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Advantage Solutions Inc. (ADV) anticipates several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily stemming from strategic operational enhancements and strong performance in specific service segments.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Growth in Experiential Services: The company's Experiential Services segment has demonstrated robust performance, with strong growth in both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. This segment experienced significant momentum in the latter half of 2025, driven by successful hiring initiatives, strong execution, and robust demand, which is expected to continue into 2026.
- Technology Transformation and Enhanced Labor Productivity: Advantage Solutions is actively implementing technology transformation initiatives and focusing on improving labor productivity. These strategic measures are aimed at enhancing operational efficiencies, which are critical for achieving consistent performance and delivering long-term shareholder value.
- Strengthening Client Partnerships: A core focus for Advantage Solutions is to strengthen its client partnerships. By fostering stronger relationships with consumer goods companies and retailers, the company aims to ensure consistent performance and drive long-term value.
- Strategic Portfolio Optimization: Advantage Solutions has undertaken a strategy of divesting non-core businesses. While this may streamline existing revenue baselines, it allows the company to concentrate resources on its most strategic and profitable service offerings, thereby setting the stage for more focused and potentially higher-growth revenue streams in the future.
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Share Repurchases
- Advantage Solutions authorized a $100 million share repurchase program on November 9, 2021.
- The company repurchased $34.1 million of its Class A common stock during the year ended December 31, 2024.
- As of December 31, 2024, $47.1 million remained available under the repurchase program, and an additional $1 million in share buybacks occurred in Q1 2025.
Share Issuance
- Advantage Solutions became a public company on January 1, 2020, through a merger with Conyers Park II Acquisition Corp., which resulted in the issuance of 203,750,000 shares of Class A common stock to Karman Topco L.P.
- A reverse stock split is planned for 2026 to enhance institutional accessibility of the company's shares.
- As of March 2, 2026, the company had 327,507,690 shares of common stock outstanding.
Outbound Investments
- Advantage Solutions has pursued a strategy of portfolio simplification through the divestiture of non-core businesses.
- Divestitures of three non-core businesses in 2025 generated approximately $55 million in proceeds.
- In June 2024, the company sold its digital advertising platform Jun Group for $185 million, with a final $27.5 million cash payment received in early 2026. Additionally, in January 2026, a partial stake in Advantage Smollan was divested for $27 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 totaled $53 million, with a primary focus on IT-related spending for its transformation plan.
- Q4 2025 capital expenditures were approximately $24 million, continuing the trend of heavy IT-related investment.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to remain elevated at $50 million to $60 million as the company enters the final stage of its IT transformation, with expectations for a meaningful reduction in future years.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Advantage Solutions Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| With Advantage Solutions Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ADV.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% |
| 03062026 | CARG | CarGurus | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.2% | 1.2% | -8.3% |
| 02272026 | IT | Gartner | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.7% | 0.7% | -4.4% |
| 02132026 | YELP | Yelp | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 17.9% | 17.9% | -5.7% |
| 02132026 | TRIP | Tripadvisor | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -3.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 76.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| Rev LTM | 6,497 |
| Op Inc LTM | 478 |
| FCF LTM | 1,175 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,204 |
| CFO LTM | 1,290 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,310 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 10.2 |
| P/E | -0.5 |
| P/CFO | 6.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -30.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -30.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -27.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -29.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -60.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branded Services | 1,306 | 1,758 | |||
| Experiential Services | 1,295 | 1,159 | |||
| Retailer Services | 965 | 982 | |||
| Marketing | 1,543 | 1,278 | 1,095 | ||
| Sales | 2,507 | 2,324 | 2,061 | ||
| Total | 3,566 | 3,900 | 4,050 | 3,602 | 3,156 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retailer Services | 23 | 16 | |||
| Experiential Services | 0 | 3 | |||
| Branded Services | -319 | 27 | |||
| Marketing | -116 | 48 | 4 | ||
| Sales | -1,323 | 183 | 63 | ||
| Total | -295 | 47 | -1,439 | 230 | 67 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $29.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/09/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -40.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $17.50 | $29.51 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 66.5% | -1.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 5,355.4% | 2,672.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.30 | 0.92 |
| Upside Capture | 310.42 | 127.55 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -27.0% | -13.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -244.46 | -140.51 | -110.92 | -56.10 | -11.99 | -5.47 |
| Up Beta | -1.33 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 1.62 | 1.68 |
| Down Beta | -531.74 | -379.54 | -259.30 | -132.70 | -27.47 | -15.92 |
| Up Capture | 464% | 183% | 339% | 101% | 131% | 197% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 24 | 35 | 60 | 112 | 349 |
| Down Capture | -419% | 166% | 168% | 184% | 147% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 129 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADV | -14.3% | 2,656.8% | 0.97 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 23.7% | 14.3% | 1.26 | -16.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 13.7% | 1.06 | -12.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.7% | 27.6% | 1.55 | -14.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.37 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.8% | 14.0% | 0.76 | -0.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -11.7% | 43.0% | -0.17 | -7.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADV | -37.8% | 1,189.3% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.5% | 20.7% | 0.37 | -3.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | -2.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.8% | 1.01 | -9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 1.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.6% | 56.6% | 0.30 | -2.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADV | -19.3% | 1,037.5% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLC) | 9.5% | 22.3% | 0.50 | -2.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | -2.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 0.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | -1.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/3/2026 | -0.6% | 14.4% | 53.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.4% | 5.7% | -29.8% |
| 8/7/2025 | 22.4% | 38.8% | 32.8% |
| 3/7/2025 | -8.9% | -30.5% | -44.9% |
| 11/7/2024 | 11.3% | -2.1% | 5.1% |
| 5/9/2024 | -12.2% | -20.2% | -29.1% |
| 2/29/2024 | 0.8% | -7.4% | 14.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | -13.5% | -10.5% | 26.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.3% | 14.4% | 26.6% |
| Median Negative | -8.7% | -5.3% | -28.2% |
| Max Positive | 22.4% | 38.8% | 60.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.0% | -30.5% | -44.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 03/03/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 2.0% | -200.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Guidance: -2.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | -2.5% | -50.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: -5.0% for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Net Interest Expense | 165.00 Mil | 13.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 55.00 Mil | 10.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Unlevered Free Cash Flow | 262.50 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | -2.0% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | -5.0% | -5.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Adjusted Unlevered Free Cash Flow Conversion | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.5 for 2025 | ||
| 2025 Net Interest Expense | 145.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 145.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Mil | -9.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 6102025 | 1.29 | 9,700 | 12,485 | 1,767,806 | Form | |
| 2 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 6062025 | 1.29 | 5,494 | 7,103 | 1,742,727 | Form | |
| 3 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 6062025 | 1.24 | 15,755 | 19,494 | 1,687,405 | Form | |
| 4 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 6042025 | 1.21 | 16,491 | 19,873 | 1,589,788 | Form | |
| 5 | Kilts, James M | Direct | Buy | 6042025 | 1.24 | 23,314 | 28,914 | 1,665,007 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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