ADI Global Distribution (ADIG)
Market Price (9/26/2026): $19.28 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
ADI Global Distribution (ADIG)
Market Price (9/26/2026): $19.28Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Electronic Equipment & Instruments
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Key risksADIG key risks include [1] a high level of post-spin-off debt and negative cash flow, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Cybersecurity. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Key risksADIG key risks include [1] a high level of post-spin-off debt and negative cash flow, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) stock has lost about 10% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market scrutiny of standalone viability following spin-off. ADI Global Distribution completed its spin-off from Resideo Technologies and began trading independently on the NYSE under the ticker ADIG on August 4, 2026. As a newly independent company, ADI is now being assessed by the market on its ability to sustain growth solely on its distribution scale, which reported approximately $4.8 billion in 2025 revenue. This transition period often introduces investor uncertainty and volatility as the market re-evaluates the company's prospects without its former parent's backing.
2. Weakness in the residential audio-visual market impacting revenue growth. While commercial demand remained robust, the company has experienced and highlighted weakness in the residential audio-visual (AV) market. This market segment represents roughly 30% of ADI's business and contributed to a deceleration in net revenue growth. For fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026, net revenue grew by only 0.7% year-over-year to $1.286 billion, a slowdown from the 4% growth observed in the first half of the year. This weakness acts as a near-term headwind for the company's overall performance.
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ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) stock has lost about 10% since it went public on 8/4/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market scrutiny of standalone viability following spin-off. ADI Global Distribution completed its spin-off from Resideo Technologies and began trading independently on the NYSE under the ticker ADIG on August 4, 2026. As a newly independent company, ADI is now being assessed by the market on its ability to sustain growth solely on its distribution scale, which reported approximately $4.8 billion in 2025 revenue. This transition period often introduces investor uncertainty and volatility as the market re-evaluates the company's prospects without its former parent's backing.
2. Weakness in the residential audio-visual market impacting revenue growth. While commercial demand remained robust, the company has experienced and highlighted weakness in the residential audio-visual (AV) market. This market segment represents roughly 30% of ADI's business and contributed to a deceleration in net revenue growth. For fiscal Q2 2026, which ended July 4, 2026, net revenue grew by only 0.7% year-over-year to $1.286 billion, a slowdown from the 4% growth observed in the first half of the year. This weakness acts as a near-term headwind for the company's overall performance.
3. Operational challenges including tariffs and ERP-related disruption. At the Jefferies 2026 Industrials Conference on September 10, 2026, ADI's CEO cited "near-term pressure from tariffs, a weak residential AV market and lingering ERP-related disruption" as factors affecting the company. These operational hurdles and external economic pressures create a challenging environment for the company and can lead to investor apprehension regarding its short-term financial and operational efficiency.
4. Mixed analyst sentiment post-IPO. Following its public debut, ADI Global Distribution received a consensus rating of "Hold" from analysts, based on a limited coverage of four research reports within the past 90 days. While some analysts initiated coverage with "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings and 12-month price targets averaging $28.50 USD, the overall cautious stance, with three "Hold" ratings against one "Buy" rating, suggests that the market is waiting for more performance data before fully embracing the stock.
5. Broader cautious sentiment in the IPO market during the period. The general landscape for initial public offerings in fiscal Q3 2026 exhibited a more cautious investor sentiment, with overall IPO activity falling short of expectations. This market environment was influenced by macroeconomic factors such as "concerns about AI spending, a 19-year high in bond yields, and resumed rate hikes". Such a backdrop can temper the performance of newly listed companies like ADI Global Distribution, irrespective of their individual merits.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADIG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | -3.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 2.9% | -5.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADIG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.0% | -3.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 41.8% | -5.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADIG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | -3.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 50.4% | -5.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/25/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ADIG | ||
| Market (SPY) | 77.8% | -3.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 127.9% | -5.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADIG Return | - | - | - | - | - | -7% | -7% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -23% | 11% | -12% | -4% | 33% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADIG Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 46% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADIG Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -40% | -34% | -31% | -32% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MVIS, ADIG, KEYS, ROP, TDY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/25/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
ADIG has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.0% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 92 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.0% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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ADIG has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 100 days | 105 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 797 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -25.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ADI Global Distribution (ADIG)
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Security Solutions: Distribution of a wide range of security products, including video surveillance, access control, intrusion detection, and fire systems.
- Audio Visual (AV) Equipment: Distribution of professional audio, video, and control solutions for commercial and residential applications.
- Networking & Communications: Distribution of networking hardware, communication systems, and infrastructure products like cables and connectors.
- Smart Home & Automation: Distribution of devices and systems for home and building automation, energy management, and control.
- Tools & Hardware: Distribution of essential tools, equipment, and accessories required for the installation and maintenance of low-voltage systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) primarily operates as a wholesale distributor, selling a wide range of security, AV, and low-voltage products to other businesses (B2B).
Due to its business model of serving a highly fragmented market of independent contractors, installers, and dealers, ADI Global Distribution does not have a small number of major customers that are publicly traded companies. Instead, its customer base consists of tens of thousands of small to medium-sized businesses.
The primary categories of customers it serves include:
- Security System Installers and Integrators: Businesses specializing in the installation, maintenance, and monitoring of burglar alarms, video surveillance, access control, and fire detection systems for residential, commercial, and industrial clients.
- Audio-Visual (AV) Contractors: Companies focused on designing, installing, and servicing audio, video, and automation systems for various environments, including homes, corporate offices, educational institutions, and hospitality venues.
- Low-Voltage Contractors: Firms that handle general low-voltage wiring and installation projects, such as structured cabling, networking infrastructure, smart home technology, and building automation systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major suppliers of ADI Global Distribution include:
- Resideo Technologies (REZI)
- Honeywell (HON)
- Johnson Controls (JCI)
- Axis Communications
- Hikvision
- Dahua Technology
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rob Aarnes, President, Chief Executive Officer
Rob Aarnes is the President and Chief Executive Officer of ADI. He has served as President of ADI since 2017, having previously led ADI's North American business. He has a strong background in retail, distribution, and manufacturing. Prior to ADI, Mr. Aarnes held various senior leadership roles within private equity, specialty retail, and big box consumer electronics companies. He also previously served as President & Chief Executive Officer of GUNNAR Optiks. Mr. Aarnes is a member of Resideo's executive leadership team and has been a Section 16 Officer since 2018. He serves on the Board of Directors of MSC Industrial Supply Co.
Michael Carlet, Chief Financial Officer
Michael Carlet is the Chief Financial Officer of ADI, where he leads the company's global finance organization. He brings experience as a CFO from Snap One and Resideo, which is relevant to managing a distribution-plus-exclusive-brand model and a spin balance sheet.
Allie Copeland, SVP, Chief Operating Officer
Allie Copeland is the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at ADI. She has been with ADI since 2016 and has previously served as Chief Commercial Officer, Chief Transformation Officer, and Vice President of Global Operations.
Marco Cardazzi, SVP, Chief Merchandising Officer
Marco Cardazzi is the Senior Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer at ADI. He has been with ADI since 2011, and his previous roles include Chief Marketing Officer, Vice President of Global Marketing, and various leadership positions across merchandising, marketing, category management, and products.
Leigh Ann Angelini, VP, Chief People Leader
Leigh Ann Angelini is the Vice President and Chief People Leader for ADI, responsible for the company's global people strategy.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to ADI Global Distribution (ADIG):
- High Leverage and Financial Risk: Following its spin-off from Resideo Technologies in August 2026, ADI Global Distribution is anticipated to carry approximately $1 billion in new indebtedness, along with a $500 million revolving credit facility. This significant level of debt introduces substantial risks related to debt servicing, financial flexibility, and its ability to fund future operations and investments. In 2025, the company also experienced largely negative cash flow.
- Supply Chain Dependence and Concentration: As a wholesale distributor, ADI Global Distribution is highly dependent on its supplier relationships. While it works with over 1,000 suppliers, a considerable portion of its revenue is concentrated among a small number of these vendors. The 10 largest suppliers account for approximately 50% of revenues, with the single largest supplier contributing more than 10% of total revenues, posing a risk of vendor concentration.
- Intense Competition: ADI operates in the distribution of security, pro-AV, and low-voltage products, a market characterized by intense competition. This competitive landscape could impact the company's pricing power, market share, and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The addressable market for ADI Global Distribution's main products and services is approximately $65 billion in North America. These products primarily include professionally installed low-voltage systems such as security, fire/life safety, and audio-visual solutions, serving both commercial and residential markets. Of this total addressable market, an estimated $35 billion is currently serviceable.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ADI Global Distribution (symbol: ADIG) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth of Digital Platform: ADI Global Distribution aims to expand its industry-leading omnichannel platform, with its digital capabilities expected to be a primary contributor to revenue growth. The company is targeting a high-single-digit to low-double-digit digital revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the near term.
- Expansion into High-Growth Verticals: The company plans to drive revenue growth through strategic expansion into high-growth verticals, specifically ProAV (Professional Audio-Visual) and DataComm (Data Communications). This builds on previous strong demand seen in commercial product categories including professional audio/video and networking.
- Growth of Exclusive Brands: ADI Global Distribution intends to leverage its portfolio of exclusive brands, which have been noted for their increasing profitability. This strategy is expected to enhance customer value and contribute to overall revenue growth.
- Development of Value-Added Services: The company is focused on growing its offerings of value-added services. These services are anticipated to be a key component in driving future revenue expansion.
- Strategic Tuck-in Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): ADI Global Distribution identifies strategic tuck-in mergers and acquisitions as a lever to achieve above-market growth. These targeted acquisitions are expected to complement existing operations and contribute to revenue expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Peer Outperformance in Electronic Equipment & Instruments
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic Manufacturing Services | 9 | 68.8% | 203.4% | 292.1% | TTMI 931% · FLEX 720% · SANM 472% |
| Semiconductor Materials & Equipment | 27 | 98.9% | 100.0% | 115.6% | AXTI 818% · AEHR 560% · LRCX 443% |
| Technology Distributors | 9 | 42.3% | 87.0% | 104.8% | CLMB 416% · AVT 210% · SNX 152% |
| Communications Equipment | 36 | 17.2% | 81.5% | 68.7% | AAOI 1301% · FEIM 1056% · LITE 988% |
| Electronic Components | 26 | 49.4% | 72.5% | 66.4% | CLS 3763% · BELFA 1387% · COHR 381% |
| Semiconductors | 55 | 34.1% | 43.0% | 40.1% | POET 1808% · MU 1399% · NVDA 924% |
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | 20 | 22.7% | 129.4% | 33.3% | STX 1127% · DELL 1084% · SMCI 1060% |
| Internet Services & Infrastructure | 6 | 2.2% | 49.1% | 28.3% | DOCN 69% · GDDY 37% · VRSN 34% |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments ← | 26 | -15.9% | 15.2% | -11.2% | PI 190% · OSIS 110% · KEYS 103% |
| IT Consulting & Other Services | 30 | -23.9% | -17.4% | -36.6% | CHRN 522268% · APLD 1124% · TSSI 797% |
| Application Software | 124 | -30.0% | -12.7% | -48.3% | VIDA 144067% · INLX 4910% · PLTR 564% |
| Systems Software | 72 | -20.8% | 11.1% | -63.1% | QNC 609% · ZETA 391% · PANW 358% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 358.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,478 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,286 |
| FCF LTM | 1,306 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,142 |
| CFO LTM | 1,438 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,266 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.61 | -2.31 | 3.21 | 0.30 | -3.97 | -1.03 |
| Up Beta | -4.55 | -1.43 | -3.21 | 2.32 | -4.02 | -2.19 |
| Down Beta | 0.80 | 1.82 | -2.47 | -6.07 | -6.13 | 2.98 |
| Up Capture | -127% | -61% | -35% | -13% | -6% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Down Capture | -231% | -89% | -47% | -27% | -17% | -10% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADIG | -11.2% | 82.9% | -0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 41.7% | 26.4% | 1.28 | -5.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 13.0% | 0.98 | -3.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.7% | 29.3% | 0.46 | 24.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.8% | 20.7% | 1.75 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 13.6% | 0.07 | -10.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.5% | 44.8% | -0.53 | -0.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADIG | -2.3% | 82.9% | -0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.3% | 26.0% | 0.73 | -5.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.2% | 0.59 | -3.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 24.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | -10.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 52.6% | 0.41 | -0.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ADIG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADIG | -1.2% | 82.9% | -0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 24.8% | 25.0% | 0.90 | -5.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | -3.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 24.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | -10.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.9% | 66.2% | 1.04 | -0.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/16/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 2.3% | -15.4% | -18.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | ||
| Median Negative | -15.4% | -18.7% | |
| Max Positive | 2.3% | ||
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -18.7% | |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/13/2026 | 2.3% | -15.4% | -18.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | ||
| Median Negative | -15.4% | -18.7% | |
| Max Positive | 2.3% | ||
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -18.7% | |
ADI Global Distribution — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Information Technology Resources |
| TechCrunch |
| Wired |
| CIO |
| MIT Technology Review |
| Gartner Insights |
| Ars Technica |
| Electronic Equipment & Instruments Resources |
| EDN |
| Electronic Design |
| EE Journal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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