Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (3/22/2026): $249.65 | Market Cap: $3.7 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (3/22/2026): $249.65Market Cap: $3.7 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.7% | Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 135 Bil, FCF LTM is 123 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 135 Bil, FCF LTM is 123 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -2.7% |
| Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Delayed AI Development and Perceived Lag: Apple's perceived weakness in its artificial intelligence (AI) strategy and the reported delay of the AI-powered Siri upgrade to May 2026, which caused the stock to fall approximately 5% in February 2026, fueled investor concerns about the company's competitive standing in a crucial technological trend.
2. Escalating Regulatory Scrutiny on App Store: Increasing regulatory pressures, including a €500 million European Union fine in December 2025 and a United States antitrust class action trial scheduled for February 2026, threatened Apple's highly profitable Services segment by potentially forcing a reduction in App Store commissions.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.4% change in AAPL stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 278.59 | 249.65 | -10.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 416,161 | 435,617 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.9% | 27.0% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.8 | 31.3 | -15.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,815 | 14,748 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 47.3% |
| Sector (XLK) | -5.5% | 35.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.7% change in AAPL stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 231.70 | 249.65 | 7.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 408,625 | 435,617 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.0% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.8 | 31.3 | -10.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,903 | 14,748 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 48.8% |
| Sector (XLK) | 3.2% | 37.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.7% change in AAPL stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 240.79 | 249.65 | 3.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 395,760 | 435,617 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.0% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.8 | 31.3 | -17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,082 | 14,748 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 76.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 20.5% | 69.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 71.8% change in AAPL stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 145.30 | 249.65 | 71.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 387,537 | 435,617 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.6% | 27.0% | 10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.3 | 31.3 | 28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,893 | 14,748 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 71.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 70.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 67.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 102.2% | 64.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 9% | -8% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 14% | -4% | 124% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -12% | -29% | -4% | -14% | -31% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -40% | -4% | -5% | -27% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -31.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -31.3% loss requires a 45.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Apple (AAPL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apple (AAPL):
- The Nike of personal technology.
- Imagine if Tesla made your phone, computer, and watch, and designed all the software they ran on.
- The Rolex of personal electronics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- iPhone: Apple's flagship line of smartphones.
- Mac: Apple's brand of personal computers.
- iPad: Apple's line of multi-purpose tablets.
- Wearables & Accessories: Includes devices like Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple TV, and HomePod.
- App Store: A digital marketplace for applications and content.
- Apple Music: A subscription-based music streaming service.
- Apple TV+: A subscription video streaming service featuring exclusive original content.
- Apple Arcade: A subscription service offering a curated library of games.
- Apple News+: A subscription service for news and magazines.
- AppleCare: Comprehensive support and extended warranty services for Apple products.
- iCloud: Cloud storage and synchronization services for data across Apple devices.
- Apple Pay: A mobile payment and digital wallet service.
- Apple Card: A co-branded credit card offering integrated financial management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Apple Inc. (AAPL) primarily sells its products and services to individuals and various organizational entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Consumers: Individual users worldwide who purchase Apple's smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and subscribe to its various services (e.g., Apple Music, Apple TV+, App Store content) for personal use.
- Small and Mid-sized Businesses: Organizations that acquire Apple products (such as iPhones, Macs, and iPads) and related services for their employees and operational needs.
- Education, Enterprise, and Government Markets: Larger institutions, corporations, and public sector bodies that integrate Apple technology into their learning environments, corporate infrastructure, or administrative systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)
- Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)
- Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)
- Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)
- Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook has served as Apple's CEO since 2011, succeeding co-founder Steve Jobs. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Apple's chief operating officer, responsible for the company's worldwide sales and operations, supply chain management, and service and support across all markets. Before joining Apple in 1998, Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he was director of North American Fulfillment. He also served as chief operating officer of the Reseller Division at Intelligent Electronics and as vice president of Corporate Materials for Compaq.
Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevan Parekh assumed the role of Apple's Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2025. He reports directly to CEO Tim Cook and oversees Apple's accounting, business support, financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, internal audit, and tax functions. Parekh joined Apple in 2013 and has held key roles in financial and business planning, and product development planning. Prior to his time at Apple, he held senior leadership positions at Thomson Reuters and General Motors, working across Europe and Asia.
Katherine Adams, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs
Katherine Adams is Apple's senior vice president of Government Affairs, leading the team that engages with legislators and policymakers globally on topics important to Apple's users. She previously served as Apple's general counsel and senior vice president of Legal and Global Security. Adams joined Apple in 2017 after 14 years at Honeywell, where she was most recently senior vice president and general counsel, managing the organization's global legal strategy across over 100 countries.
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services and Health
Eddy Cue is Apple's senior vice president of Services and Health, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. He oversees the full range of Apple's services, including Apple Music, Apple News, Apple Podcasts, Apple TV app, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Maps, iCloud services, and Apple's productivity and creativity apps. Cue joined Apple in 1989 and was instrumental in creating the Apple Store online in 1998, the iTunes Store in 2003, and the App Store in 2008.
Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering
Craig Federighi is Apple's senior vice president of Software Engineering, responsible for the development of Apple's software platforms, including iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS. His teams deliver the software, user interface, applications, and frameworks for Apple's innovative products. Federighi returned to Apple in 2009 to lead macOS engineering, and in 2012, his responsibilities expanded to include iOS. Before rejoining Apple, he worked at NeXT, and then spent a decade at Ariba, an e-commerce pioneer where he held several roles, including chief technology officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Apple's business include:
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Apple faces significant global regulatory and antitrust challenges, particularly concerning its App Store policies and business practices. Investigations and lawsuits from entities such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) target Apple's control over app distribution and in-app purchasing systems, which could lead to mandated changes in business practices, lower commission fees, and substantial fines. These actions directly threaten the high-margin revenue generated by Apple's Services segment.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Concentration: Apple's deep reliance on China as both a primary manufacturing hub and a critical consumer market exposes it to considerable geopolitical risks. Escalating trade tensions, tariffs, export controls, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment in China could disrupt its supply chain, increase production costs, and negatively impact sales in a key region. While Apple is pursuing diversification of its manufacturing base to countries like India and Vietnam, this process is complex, costly, and its dependency on China remains substantial.
- Innovation and Competition in Rapidly Evolving Technologies: Apple operates in highly competitive markets across its product and service categories, requiring constant innovation to maintain its leadership. There is a risk that new products and services may not achieve the same level of profitability or market acceptance as existing offerings, such as the iPhone. Furthermore, the company faces pressure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and a perceived lag in AI development or a failure to introduce compelling new AI features could impact its competitive standing and future growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Regulatory actions, particularly those aimed at dismantling its tightly controlled App Store ecosystem and payment policies. Examples include the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which mandates allowing alternative app stores and third-party payment systems on iOS devices, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny in other regions such as the United States and Japan. These actions threaten Apple's significant revenue streams from App Store commissions and its strategic control over its platform, potentially leading to reduced profitability and a more fragmented user experience.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Apple's Main Products and Services
- Smartphones (iPhone): The global smartphone market size was valued at USD 649.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1173.47 billion by 2033.
- Personal Computers (Mac): The global personal computers market size was valued at USD 211.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 390.84 billion by 2033.
- Tablets (iPad): The global tablet market size was valued at USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033.
- Wearables (AirPods Max, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats products): The global wearables market was estimated at USD 179.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 995.2 billion in 2034.
- App Store (Applications and Digital Content): The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Of this, USD 131 billion originated from billings and sales of digital goods and services.
- Apple Arcade (Game Subscription Service): The global subscription-based gaming market generated USD 11.53 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.18 billion by 2030.
- Apple Music (Music Streaming): The global music streaming market generated USD 48.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about USD 200 billion by 2034.
- Apple TV+ (Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030.
-
Apple Card and Apple Pay (FinTech/Digital Payments):
- The global fintech market was valued at USD 394.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,760.18 billion by 2034.
- The global digital payment market size was estimated at USD 114.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030.
- Apple News+: null
- AppleCare support services: null
- Licensing intellectual property: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Continued Services Growth: Apple's Services segment, encompassing offerings like the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and payment services, is a consistent and high-margin revenue driver. This segment has shown robust double-digit year-over-year growth and is projected to continue its strong momentum, supported by Apple's extensive installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices. The expansion of this ecosystem, through recurring subscriptions and digital transactions, provides stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Strong iPhone Sales and Upgrade Cycles: iPhone sales continue to be a significant contributor to Apple's revenue, with recent quarters showing strong growth, particularly driven by new product launches like the iPhone 17 lineup. A large, installed base of active devices creates opportunities for significant hardware upgrade cycles, especially with the introduction of new, more capable, and AI-ready iPhone models.
- Expansion in Emerging Markets: Apple is experiencing considerable growth in emerging markets. The company has reported double-digit iPhone growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, South Asia, Brazil, and Greater China, indicating a successful strategy to expand its customer base beyond traditional markets. This geographical expansion is crucial for sustained long-term revenue growth.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration and Innovation: Apple's strategic focus on developing and integrating AI across its platforms is a significant future growth driver. This includes efforts to enhance its operating systems and services, such as a more personalized Siri, potentially through collaborations like the one with Google for foundational AI models. New AI-ready iPads and Macs are also expected to accelerate sales by appealing to an increasingly AI-focused technological environment.
- New Product Line Innovation and Market Share Expansion: Apple is demonstrating flexibility in its product strategy by introducing new offerings aimed at broader market segments. Examples include the launch of the MacBook Neo, a more budget-friendly laptop, and the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPhone, designed to attract new users into the Apple ecosystem and increase market share. Furthermore, exploration into new categories like home automation and security, potentially with a smart home hub and security cameras, could also serve as future revenue catalysts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Apple authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases in May 2024, marking the largest share buyback in U.S. company history.
- The company repurchased $90.711 billion in shares in 2025, $94.949 billion in 2024, and $77.55 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Apple's shares outstanding declined by 2.62% in 2025 (to 15.005 billion), 2.56% in 2024 (to 15.408 billion), and 3.14% in 2023 (to 15.813 billion), primarily due to extensive share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- Apple is significantly increasing its AI investments and has made seven acquisitions directly related to its AI ambitions in 2025, with a stated openness to further strategic acquisitions aligned with long-term AI goals.
- The company has committed $500 billion to U.S. investments over several years, focusing on expanding U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development.
- In October 2025, Apple pledged further investments in China while simultaneously preparing to dedicate another $100 billion to expanding its operations in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Apple's annual capital expenditures were $12.715 billion in 2025, $9.447 billion in 2024, and $10.959 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the next fiscal year are forecast at $13.465 billion, with a high consensus reaching $16.238 billion.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures in fiscal Q4 2025, which saw a 35% year-over-year increase to $12.7 billion, was directed towards AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Should You Buy Apple Stock? | 03/21/2026 | |
| Better Value & Growth: DELL, DCBO Top Apple Stock | 03/21/2026 | |
| Apple Stock Capital Return Hits $874 Bil | 03/20/2026 | |
| The AAPL Risk Framework: 5 Catalysts to Monitor Over the Next Two Quarters | 03/12/2026 | |
| How Does Apple Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/14/2026 | |
| Apple Stock Can Sink, Here Is How | 02/13/2026 | |
| What Could Set Apple Stock on Fire | 01/29/2026 | |
| 3 Key Risks That Could Drag Down Apple Stock | 01/14/2026 | |
| AAPL Stock Falls -5.4% With A 7-day Losing Spree On Downgrade, Cost Fears | 01/09/2026 | |
| What Could Spark the Next Big Move In Apple Stock | 12/31/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Buy or Sell Apple Stock? | 03/21/2026 | |
| Better Value & Growth: DELL Leads Apple Stock | 03/21/2026 | |
| Apple Stock Hands $874 Bil Back – Worth a Look? | 03/20/2026 | |
| $599 Devices Could Be Apple’s Biggest AI Advantage | 03/10/2026 | |
| Apple’s $14B Capex in a $700B AI World: Smart or Shortsighted? | 02/19/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AAPL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | BMI | Badger Meter | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02282026 | VRNS | Varonis Systems | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | ITRI | Itron | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FSLR | First Solar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PEGA | Pegasystems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 49.7% | 49.0% | -3.8% |
| 12312018 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 89.0% | -9.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 228.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,533.5 |
| Rev LTM | 354,145 |
| Op Inc LTM | 104,507 |
| FCF LTM | 40,909 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47,946 |
| CFO LTM | 137,493 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 116,756 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,533.5 |
| P/S | 5.8 |
| P/EBIT | 20.7 |
| P/E | 25.8 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 84.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 22.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 201,183 | 200,583 | 205,489 | 191,973 | 137,781 |
| Services | 96,169 | 85,200 | 78,129 | 68,425 | 53,768 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 37,005 | 39,845 | 41,241 | 38,367 | 30,620 |
| Mac | 29,984 | 29,357 | 40,177 | 35,190 | 28,622 |
| iPad | 26,694 | 28,300 | 29,292 | 31,862 | 23,724 |
| Total | 391,035 | 383,285 | 394,328 | 365,817 | 274,515 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $247.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3,657.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $261.05 | $246.46 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -5.0% | 0.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.1% | 31.8% |
| Downside Capture | 109.10 | 110.85 |
| Upside Capture | 79.80 | 107.51 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 50.6% | 76.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 0.30 | 0.46 | 0.64 | 1.16 | 1.39 | 1.24 |
| Down Beta | 1.99 | 1.57 | 1.32 | 1.07 | 1.38 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | 157% | 89% | 59% | 93% | 112% | 120% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 19 | 29 | 66 | 132 | 408 |
| Down Capture | 84% | 117% | 97% | 74% | 109% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 22 | 32 | 58 | 119 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 15.8% | 31.7% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 26.6% | 26.6% | 0.86 | 69.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 18.9% | 0.64 | 76.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 48.2% | 27.0% | 1.45 | 0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 17.8% | 17.4% | 0.83 | 26.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 16.4% | -0.11 | 50.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -18.9% | 44.2% | -0.35 | 23.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 15.5% | 27.5% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 16.2% | 24.6% | 0.59 | 76.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.0% | 0.54 | 75.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.7% | 17.5% | 0.97 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 19.0% | 0.46 | 12.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.8% | 0.06 | 47.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 26.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 26.8% | 34.7% | 0.77 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.6% | 24.2% | 0.82 | 67.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.2% | 17.9% | 0.68 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 15.7% | 0.70 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 19.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.9% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.9% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kondo, Chris | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
| 2 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 247.39 | 4,199 | 1,038,787 | 2,168,367 | Form |
| 3 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.81 | 129,963 | 33,375,723 | 842,410,671 | Form |
| 4 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 257.39 | 43,013 | 11,071,078 | 35,181,747 | Form |
| 5 | Adams, Katherine L | SVP, GC and Secretary | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.79 | 47,125 | 12,101,154 | 46,005,698 | Form |
AAPL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.77x indicates a favorable risk/reward profile. The company's powerful ecosystem and shift to high-margin Services provide a strong operational tailwind. While the regulatory overhang is a significant structural risk that prevents a Tier 1 rating, the 60% probability assigned to the upside case reflects the underlying business strength and high likelihood that the business continues to compound earnings effectively.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowApple fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype due to its dominant position in the mature smartphone market, its focus on capital efficiency via massive buybacks, and its exceptional pricing power derived from a powerful ecosystem lock-in. The investment thesis hinges on defending its high-margin, recurring Services revenue stream.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for earnings outperformance is the continuing shift in revenue mix towards the high-margin Services segment. Built upon a loyal installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices, this recurring revenue stream provides a durable, high-quality earnings buffer against the cyclicality of the mature hardware business.
- Services revenue grew a stable and strong 14% YoY in the most recent quarter.
- The active installed base of devices now exceeds 2.5 billion, providing a massive foundation for Services monetization.
- Management has executed a massive capital return program, authorizing a $100 billion buyback in 2025 following a $110 billion authorization in 2024, which directly enhances EPS.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is adverse regulatory action from the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which directly targets Apple's App Store policies. A negative outcome could force Apple to permit alternative payment systems or third-party app stores, which would structurally damage the high-margin commission revenue from the App Store, a key component of the Services growth story.
- The US DOJ lawsuit, with a trial expected in 2026, alleges monopolization of the smartphone market.
- The EU has already levied fines against Apple under the DMA for non-compliance, with investigations ongoing.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Services Revenue Growth YoY | > 12% | This is the core of the Alpha Driver. Growth below this level would indicate a material deceleration in the monetization of the installed base and challenge the margin expansion thesis. |
| iPhone Revenue Growth YoY | > 8% | While Services is the future, the iPhone remains the gateway to the ecosystem. Growth below the mature market rate would signal market share loss or a failed upgrade cycle, risking the foundation of the Services story. |
| Greater China Revenue Growth YoY | Positive Growth | Given recent volatility and geopolitical tension, any negative growth in this key market would signal that the Q1 2026 rebound was temporary and that structural headwinds are re-emerging, posing a significant risk to overall revenue. |
iPhone Supercycle vs. Regulatory Drag
BULL VIEW
The 23% iPhone revenue acceleration is proof of enduring pricing power and ecosystem lock-in, making regulatory fines manageable costs of business.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating iPhone momentum and Services growth overcome the structural threat of regulatory actions aimed at dismantling Apple's high-margin 'walled garden' ecosystem?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 23% YoY acceleration in iPhone revenue (Q1 2026) is currently winning, but the multiple 'HIGH' impact regulatory risks in the next 6 months keep the debate balanced.
BEAR VIEW
Multiple high-impact regulatory attacks (DOJ, EU DMA) on the App Store and Google search deal threaten Apple's high-margin services annuity stream.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 [2] | Q2 2026 Earnings & Guidance Watch: Guidance for Greater China revenue. A return to deceleration would confirm structural headwinds persist. |
By May 3, 2026 [13, 17] | EU Digital Markets Act (DMA) Report Watch: European Commission's report on DMA effectiveness. A recommendation for stricter enforcement would be a significant negative. |
June 2026 [8] | WWDC 2026 Keynote Watch: Unveiling of 'Apple Intelligence' strategy. A revamped Siri and deep OS integration are needed to meet high expectations. |
Ongoing through 2026 | US DOJ vs. Google Appeal Ruling Watch: Court of Appeals ruling on the DOJ's request for stronger remedies against Google's default search agreements. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Sep 9, 2025 | iPhone 17 Launch Event Details: Apple unveiled the iPhone 17 family of products. The market's initial reaction was muted ahead of the strong sales data confirmed in the next earnings report. | Slight -1.5% pullback $237.64 -> $234.12 |
Sep 15, 2025 | iOS 26 Public Release Details: Apple released iOS 26 to the public, the software underpinning the new iPhone 17 lineup and a key driver of the ecosystem's user experience and service integration. [9] | Modest 1.1% gain $233.84 -> $236.47 |
Oct 30, 2025 | Q4 2025 Earnings Details: Delivered solid results that concluded the fiscal year, setting the stage for the successful launch and strong demand of the iPhone 17 lineup in the following quarter. [2] | Flat (0.6%) $269.43 -> $271.13 |
Nov 6, 2025 | App Store Developer Story Feature Details: Apple featured developer success stories, a likely PR move to counter ongoing antitrust narratives surrounding the App Store's market power. [22] | Muted (-0.1%) $269.87 -> $269.50 |
Dec 17, 2025 | Announces Changes to iOS in Japan Details: Apple announced changes to comply with local regulations, highlighting the ongoing global regulatory pressures on its ecosystem and business model. [22] | Slight -1.0% pullback $274.61 -> $271.84 |
Jan 29, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Details: Reported a strong beat with record revenue and 23% iPhone growth, but stock reaction was muted due to concerns over future growth and AI strategy. [5, 6] | Flat (0.5%) $258.28 -> $259.48 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock trades in a Moderate Volatility regime (1.9x S&P) with compressing near-term risk. While the moat is wide and visibility high, the Neutral sentiment driven by regulatory overhang prevents a max position.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT
SECTORAvoids Apple's primary consumer hardware cycle and China geopolitical risks due to its enterprise software and cloud computing focus. Possesses a similarly powerful ecosystem moat.
V
OTHEROffers a different risk profile focused on global payment volumes rather than hardware cycles or app store regulation. Possesses an equally powerful network-effect moat.
Apple is transforming from a pure-play hardware innovator into a diversified consumer technology platform, increasingly monetizing its vast installed base through high-margin services.
Monitor news for indicators of ecosystem strength, new product category adoption, and regulatory impacts on high-margin revenue streams.
Reports of strong iPhone 17/18 pre-orders, accelerating Services revenue growth exceeding 15% YoY, positive reviews/sales for Vision Pro adoption, and successful market share gains against Samsung in emerging markets.
Significant decline in iPhone shipments (e.g., -5% YoY or worse) driven by weak China demand, new antitrust regulations severely limiting App Store commissions (e.g., forcing a 10% commission cap), or a major privacy breach impacting iCloud trust.
iPhone upgrade cycle rumors (always present but don't reliably signal demand), minor incremental hardware updates (unless tied to a new ecosystem play), general macroeconomic forecasts (unless explicitly tied to consumer discretionary spending on premium devices), standard legal challenges (unless they specifically target the App Store or user data privacy).
Repricing Catalyst
Continued expansion of the Services segment, driven by App Store and subscription growth, expected to exceed $100 billion in annual revenue in FY2026, alongside successful broader adoption of the Vision Pro, contributing an estimated $5-10 billion in incremental revenue by FY2027.
iPhone Sales
$85.3B TTM (71% of Total) · 40.7% MarginWhat It Is
iPhone 15, iPhone 14, older models
Who Pays & How
Global consumers and enterprises pay for premium smartphones due to the iOS ecosystem lock-in, high resale value, and integration with other Apple devices. Average transaction value $800-1200.
Competition
Mac Computers
$8.4B TTM (7% of Total) · 40.7% MarginWhat It Is
MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro
Who Pays & How
Consumers and creative professionals seeking high performance, design, and seamless integration with the Apple ecosystem. ASP around $1180.
Competition
Services (App Store, iCloud, Music, etc.)
$23.1B TTM (19% of Total) · 76.5% MarginWhat It Is
App Store commissions, iCloud storage, Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Pay, AppleCare, advertising revenue, licensing deals.
Who Pays & How
Consumers subscribe to various services for content, storage, and extended device functionality, locked in by the iOS ecosystem. Developers pay commissions (15-30%) for access to the massive user base. Google pays for default search engine placement.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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