Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (4/27/2026): $267.85 | Market Cap: $4.0 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Apple (AAPL)
Market Price (4/27/2026): $267.85Market Cap: $4.0 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 135 Bil, FCF LTM is 123 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 268 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.4% | Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%, CFO LTM is 135 Bil, FCF LTM is 123 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 268 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.4% |
| Key risksAAPL key risks include [1] intense global antitrust scrutiny of its App Store ecosystem, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Apple's strong Q1 2026 financial results were largely counterbalanced by broader macroeconomic headwinds. The company reported record revenue of $143.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.84, surpassing analyst expectations. This strong performance and positive guidance for Q2 2026, projecting 13% to 16% year-over-year revenue growth, provided upward momentum. However, this was weighed against a 6% year-over-year contraction in the broader global smartphone market during Q1 2026, primarily due to significant memory component shortages, rising costs, and softening consumer demand.
2. Robust demand for the iPhone 17 series and strategic market share gains provided a floor for the stock. Despite the challenging industry environment, Apple's iPhone revenue grew 23% to $85.3 billion in Q1 2026, driven by the iPhone 17 lineup. The company achieved a 21% global smartphone market share in Q1 2026, leading the market for the first time in a first quarter with a 5% year-over-year growth in volumes. Notably, iPhone sales in China surged 20% during the same period, outpacing competitors. Apple's premium positioning and integrated supply chain helped it navigate component shortages more effectively than many rivals.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.3% change in AAPL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 271.61 | 270.89 | -0.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 416,161 | 435,617 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.9% | 27.0% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.9 | 33.9 | -5.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,815 | 14,748 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | -0.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 57.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 11.3% | 42.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 6.6% change in AAPL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 254.15 | 270.89 | 6.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 408,625 | 435,617 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.0% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.1 | 33.9 | -11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14,903 | 14,748 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 6.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 57.2% |
| Sector (XLK) | 13.9% | 43.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.5% change in AAPL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 221.17 | 270.89 | 22.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 395,760 | 435,617 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.3% | 27.0% | 11.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.7 | 33.9 | -2.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,082 | 14,748 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 22.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 76.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 55.9% | 67.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.7% change in AAPL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 162.55 | 270.89 | 66.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 387,537 | 435,617 | 12.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.6% | 27.0% | 10.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.1 | 33.9 | 25.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 15,893 | 14,748 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 66.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 67.4% |
| Sector (XLK) | 116.4% | 63.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAPL Return | 35% | -26% | 49% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 112% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -34% | 62% | 32% | 14% | 13% | 165% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAPL Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 75% | 58% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 32% | 73% | 62% | 47% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAPL Max Drawdown | -12% | -29% | -4% | -14% | -31% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -40% | -4% | -5% | -27% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ. See AAPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAPL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 281 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, DELL, HPQ
In The Past
Apple's stock fell -31.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/3/2022. A -31.3% loss requires a 45.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Apple (AAPL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Apple (AAPL):
- The Nike of personal technology.
- Imagine if Tesla made your phone, computer, and watch, and designed all the software they ran on.
- The Rolex of personal electronics.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- iPhone: Apple's flagship line of smartphones.
- Mac: Apple's brand of personal computers.
- iPad: Apple's line of multi-purpose tablets.
- Wearables & Accessories: Includes devices like Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple TV, and HomePod.
- App Store: A digital marketplace for applications and content.
- Apple Music: A subscription-based music streaming service.
- Apple TV+: A subscription video streaming service featuring exclusive original content.
- Apple Arcade: A subscription service offering a curated library of games.
- Apple News+: A subscription service for news and magazines.
- AppleCare: Comprehensive support and extended warranty services for Apple products.
- iCloud: Cloud storage and synchronization services for data across Apple devices.
- Apple Pay: A mobile payment and digital wallet service.
- Apple Card: A co-branded credit card offering integrated financial management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Apple Inc. (AAPL) primarily sells its products and services to individuals and various organizational entities. Its major customer categories include:
- Consumers: Individual users worldwide who purchase Apple's smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, accessories, and subscribe to its various services (e.g., Apple Music, Apple TV+, App Store content) for personal use.
- Small and Mid-sized Businesses: Organizations that acquire Apple products (such as iPhones, Macs, and iPads) and related services for their employees and operational needs.
- Education, Enterprise, and Government Markets: Larger institutions, corporations, and public sector bodies that integrate Apple technology into their learning environments, corporate infrastructure, or administrative systems.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (Foxconn) (2317.TW)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) (TSM)
- Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)
- LG Display Co., Ltd. (LPL)
- Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
- Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
- Sony Group Corporation (SONY)
- Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (6981.T)
- Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ)
- Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)
- Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW)
- Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Tim Cook, Chief Executive Officer
Tim Cook has served as Apple's CEO since 2011, succeeding co-founder Steve Jobs. Prior to his appointment as CEO, he was Apple's chief operating officer, responsible for the company's worldwide sales and operations, supply chain management, and service and support across all markets. Before joining Apple in 1998, Cook spent 12 years at IBM, where he was director of North American Fulfillment. He also served as chief operating officer of the Reseller Division at Intelligent Electronics and as vice president of Corporate Materials for Compaq.
Kevan Parekh, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kevan Parekh assumed the role of Apple's Chief Financial Officer on January 1, 2025. He reports directly to CEO Tim Cook and oversees Apple's accounting, business support, financial planning and analysis, treasury, investor relations, internal audit, and tax functions. Parekh joined Apple in 2013 and has held key roles in financial and business planning, and product development planning. Prior to his time at Apple, he held senior leadership positions at Thomson Reuters and General Motors, working across Europe and Asia.
Katherine Adams, Senior Vice President of Government Affairs
Katherine Adams is Apple's senior vice president of Government Affairs, leading the team that engages with legislators and policymakers globally on topics important to Apple's users. She previously served as Apple's general counsel and senior vice president of Legal and Global Security. Adams joined Apple in 2017 after 14 years at Honeywell, where she was most recently senior vice president and general counsel, managing the organization's global legal strategy across over 100 countries.
Eddy Cue, Senior Vice President of Services and Health
Eddy Cue is Apple's senior vice president of Services and Health, reporting to CEO Tim Cook. He oversees the full range of Apple's services, including Apple Music, Apple News, Apple Podcasts, Apple TV app, Apple Pay, Apple Card, Maps, iCloud services, and Apple's productivity and creativity apps. Cue joined Apple in 1989 and was instrumental in creating the Apple Store online in 1998, the iTunes Store in 2003, and the App Store in 2008.
Craig Federighi, Senior Vice President of Software Engineering
Craig Federighi is Apple's senior vice president of Software Engineering, responsible for the development of Apple's software platforms, including iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS. His teams deliver the software, user interface, applications, and frameworks for Apple's innovative products. Federighi returned to Apple in 2009 to lead macOS engineering, and in 2012, his responsibilities expanded to include iOS. Before rejoining Apple, he worked at NeXT, and then spent a decade at Ariba, an e-commerce pioneer where he held several roles, including chief technology officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Apple's business include:
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Apple faces significant global regulatory and antitrust challenges, particularly concerning its App Store policies and business practices. Investigations and lawsuits from entities such as the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) target Apple's control over app distribution and in-app purchasing systems, which could lead to mandated changes in business practices, lower commission fees, and substantial fines. These actions directly threaten the high-margin revenue generated by Apple's Services segment.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Chain Concentration: Apple's deep reliance on China as both a primary manufacturing hub and a critical consumer market exposes it to considerable geopolitical risks. Escalating trade tensions, tariffs, export controls, and potential shifts in consumer sentiment in China could disrupt its supply chain, increase production costs, and negatively impact sales in a key region. While Apple is pursuing diversification of its manufacturing base to countries like India and Vietnam, this process is complex, costly, and its dependency on China remains substantial.
- Innovation and Competition in Rapidly Evolving Technologies: Apple operates in highly competitive markets across its product and service categories, requiring constant innovation to maintain its leadership. There is a risk that new products and services may not achieve the same level of profitability or market acceptance as existing offerings, such as the iPhone. Furthermore, the company faces pressure to keep pace with rapid technological advancements, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), and a perceived lag in AI development or a failure to introduce compelling new AI features could impact its competitive standing and future growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Regulatory actions, particularly those aimed at dismantling its tightly controlled App Store ecosystem and payment policies. Examples include the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA), which mandates allowing alternative app stores and third-party payment systems on iOS devices, and ongoing antitrust scrutiny in other regions such as the United States and Japan. These actions threaten Apple's significant revenue streams from App Store commissions and its strategic control over its platform, potentially leading to reduced profitability and a more fragmented user experience.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Addressable Markets for Apple's Main Products and Services
- Smartphones (iPhone): The global smartphone market size was valued at USD 649.13 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1173.47 billion by 2033.
- Personal Computers (Mac): The global personal computers market size was valued at USD 211.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 390.84 billion by 2033.
- Tablets (iPad): The global tablet market size was valued at USD 84.6 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 202.4 billion by 2033.
- Wearables (AirPods Max, AirPods, Apple Watch, Beats products): The global wearables market was estimated at USD 179.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 995.2 billion in 2034.
- App Store (Applications and Digital Content): The App Store ecosystem facilitated nearly USD 1.3 trillion in billings and sales worldwide in 2024. Of this, USD 131 billion originated from billings and sales of digital goods and services.
- Apple Arcade (Game Subscription Service): The global subscription-based gaming market generated USD 11.53 billion in revenue in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 24.18 billion by 2030.
- Apple Music (Music Streaming): The global music streaming market generated USD 48.6 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to about USD 200 billion by 2034.
- Apple TV+ (Video Streaming): The global video streaming market size was estimated at USD 129.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 416.8 billion by 2030.
-
Apple Card and Apple Pay (FinTech/Digital Payments):
- The global fintech market was valued at USD 394.88 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,760.18 billion by 2034.
- The global digital payment market size was estimated at USD 114.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 361.30 billion by 2030.
- Apple News+: null
- AppleCare support services: null
- Licensing intellectual property: null
AI Analysis | Feedback
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market trends:
- Continued Services Growth: Apple's Services segment, encompassing offerings like the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, and payment services, is a consistent and high-margin revenue driver. This segment has shown robust double-digit year-over-year growth and is projected to continue its strong momentum, supported by Apple's extensive installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices. The expansion of this ecosystem, through recurring subscriptions and digital transactions, provides stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Strong iPhone Sales and Upgrade Cycles: iPhone sales continue to be a significant contributor to Apple's revenue, with recent quarters showing strong growth, particularly driven by new product launches like the iPhone 17 lineup. A large, installed base of active devices creates opportunities for significant hardware upgrade cycles, especially with the introduction of new, more capable, and AI-ready iPhone models.
- Expansion in Emerging Markets: Apple is experiencing considerable growth in emerging markets. The company has reported double-digit iPhone growth in regions such as India, the Middle East, South Asia, Brazil, and Greater China, indicating a successful strategy to expand its customer base beyond traditional markets. This geographical expansion is crucial for sustained long-term revenue growth.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration and Innovation: Apple's strategic focus on developing and integrating AI across its platforms is a significant future growth driver. This includes efforts to enhance its operating systems and services, such as a more personalized Siri, potentially through collaborations like the one with Google for foundational AI models. New AI-ready iPads and Macs are also expected to accelerate sales by appealing to an increasingly AI-focused technological environment.
- New Product Line Innovation and Market Share Expansion: Apple is demonstrating flexibility in its product strategy by introducing new offerings aimed at broader market segments. Examples include the launch of the MacBook Neo, a more budget-friendly laptop, and the iPhone 17e, a new low-end iPhone, designed to attract new users into the Apple ecosystem and increase market share. Furthermore, exploration into new categories like home automation and security, potentially with a smart home hub and security cameras, could also serve as future revenue catalysts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Apple authorized an additional $110 billion for share repurchases in May 2024, marking the largest share buyback in U.S. company history.
- The company repurchased $90.711 billion in shares in 2025, $94.949 billion in 2024, and $77.55 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Apple's shares outstanding declined by 2.62% in 2025 (to 15.005 billion), 2.56% in 2024 (to 15.408 billion), and 3.14% in 2023 (to 15.813 billion), primarily due to extensive share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- Apple is significantly increasing its AI investments and has made seven acquisitions directly related to its AI ambitions in 2025, with a stated openness to further strategic acquisitions aligned with long-term AI goals.
- The company has committed $500 billion to U.S. investments over several years, focusing on expanding U.S.-based manufacturing and research and development.
- In October 2025, Apple pledged further investments in China while simultaneously preparing to dedicate another $100 billion to expanding its operations in the U.S.
Capital Expenditures
- Apple's annual capital expenditures were $12.715 billion in 2025, $9.447 billion in 2024, and $10.959 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for the next fiscal year are forecast at $13.465 billion, with a high consensus reaching $16.238 billion.
- A significant portion of capital expenditures in fiscal Q4 2025, which saw a 35% year-over-year increase to $12.7 billion, was directed towards AI infrastructure, chip development, and new data centers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AAPL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | PANW | Palo Alto Networks | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | ALKT | Alkami Technology | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DLB | Dolby Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PTC | PTC | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 49.7% | 49.0% | -3.8% |
| 12312018 | AAPL | Apple | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.8% | 89.0% | -9.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,991.3 |
| Rev LTM | 354,145 |
| Op Inc LTM | 104,507 |
| FCF LTM | 40,909 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 47,946 |
| CFO LTM | 137,493 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 116,756 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 15.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,991.3 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.2 |
| P/EBIT | 23.6 |
| P/E | 29.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 112.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 36.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone | 201,183 | 200,583 | 205,489 | 191,973 | 137,781 |
| Services | 96,169 | 85,200 | 78,129 | 68,425 | 53,768 |
| Wearables, Home and Accessories | 37,005 | 39,845 | 41,241 | 38,367 | 30,620 |
| Mac | 29,984 | 29,357 | 40,177 | 35,190 | 28,622 |
| iPad | 26,694 | 28,300 | 29,292 | 31,862 | 23,724 |
| Total | 391,035 | 383,285 | 394,328 | 365,817 | 274,515 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $271.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3,997.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/1980 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $260.15 | $253.34 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 4.2% | 7.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.3% | 23.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| Upside Capture | 120.60 | 93.56 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.9% | 54.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 1.28 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 0.92 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 0.99 | 1.42 | 1.24 |
| Down Beta | 0.43 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 1.32 | 1.19 |
| Up Capture | 91% | 129% | 89% | 86% | 112% | 114% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 29 | 66 | 133 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 80% | 87% | 100% | 86% | 106% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 34 | 60 | 119 | 346 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 33.2% | 23.4% | 1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 62.8% | 20.7% | 2.25 | 44.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 54.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 21.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 12.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 15.6% | 27.5% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 18.5% | 24.8% | 0.67 | 75.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 75.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 47.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 26.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAPL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 27.0% | 34.8% | 0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 23.2% | 24.4% | 0.87 | 67.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 63.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 4.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 18.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 39.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 16.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -0.4% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 7/31/2025 | -2.5% | 6.0% | 12.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -3.7% | -7.4% | -5.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | -0.7% | -1.8% | 0.3% |
| 10/31/2024 | -1.3% | 0.7% | 6.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 6.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.5% | 18.4% | 30.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.6% | -7.4% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Brien, Deirdre | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 255.35 | 30,002 | 7,660,875 | 34,933,815 | Form |
| 2 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 254.23 | 64,949 | 16,512,198 | 833,991,449 | Form |
| 3 | Kondo, Chris | Principal Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 271.23 | 3,752 | 1,017,655 | 4,095,031 | Form |
| 4 | Parekh, Kevan | Senior Vice President, CFO | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 247.39 | 4,199 | 1,038,787 | 2,168,367 | Form |
| 5 | Cook, Timothy D | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 256.81 | 129,963 | 33,375,723 | 842,410,671 | Form |
AAPL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score of 8 reflects a high-quality business with a widening competitive moat and a clear path to continued EPS growth through its services transition. The valuation is premium but justified by the quality and durability of the business model. While the upside/downside skew is only moderately favorable, the high quality of the underlying business and widening moat merit an 'Accumulate' rating. The primary friction is a known regulatory risk, but the ecosystem's fundamental strength provides a durable defense.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Type B (Quality Compounder / Stalwart), Secondary: Type F (Transition / Profit Pivot)Apple is a mature, highly profitable company with immense pricing power and a loyal customer base, fitting the 'Quality Compounder' archetype. The secondary 'Transition' classification reflects the strategic shift to monetizing its massive installed base through the high-margin, recurring-revenue Services business, which is the primary driver of future profit growth and multiple justification.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for equity appreciation is the ongoing mix shift towards the high-margin Services business. By monetizing its growing installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices, Apple is transforming its earnings profile from one dependent on cyclical hardware sales to a more predictable, high-quality, recurring revenue stream, which justifies a premium valuation.
- Services revenue grew 14% YoY in Q1 FY2026 to $30 billion.
- The installed base of active devices now exceeds 2.5 billion, providing a large and growing base for monetization.
- Services Gross Margin is 76.5% versus Product Gross Margin of 40.7% in Q1 FY2026.
- The company is successfully increasing prices on services, demonstrating pricing power within the ecosystem.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the investment thesis is global regulatory action aimed at dismantling Apple's control over its App Store. Both the U.S. DOJ lawsuit and the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) threaten to force Apple to allow alternative payment systems and third-party app stores, which would directly pressure the high-margin (30% commission) App Store revenue, a key component of the Services growth story.
- The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) antitrust lawsuit is currently in the discovery phase as of April 2026.
- The EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) is already in effect, with enforcement actions beginning.
- Forced changes could impact the App Store's commission-based model, which is a significant contributor to the high-margin Services segment.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Services Revenue Growth YoY | >15% | This is the core of the Alpha thesis. Growth above 15% signals accelerating monetization of the installed base and justifies a higher valuation multiple. |
| Company-Level Gross Margin % | >48% | Directly measures the financial benefit of the mix shift to high-margin Services. Sustained levels above 48% confirm the margin expansion thesis is intact. |
| iPhone Revenue Growth YoY | >10% | While Services is the future, the iPhone remains the core profit driver. Growth above 10% demonstrates the continued health of the ecosystem's foundation and Apple's pricing power in the premium market. |
Services Growth vs. Regulatory Guillotine
BULL VIEW
Bulls are betting on continued monetization of the 2.5B+ device installed base, driving Services growth >14% and company gross margins >48%, justifying a premium valuation for quality.
CORE TENSION
The core disagreement is whether the high-margin Services growth engine is durable enough to overcome global regulators actively trying to dismantle its primary monetization method, the App Store.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bulls are currently winning on reported metrics: Q1 FY2026 iPhone revenue accelerated to +23% YoY and company gross margin hit 48.2%, confirming the financial thesis is intact for now.
BEAR VIEW
Bears are focused on the DOJ lawsuit and EU's DMA forcing changes to the App Store's commission model, risking the primary profit driver and causing a significant P/E de-rating.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Services Revenue Growth vs. Q1's +14% baseline and Company Gross Margin vs. Q1's 48.2%. This directly tests the core bull vs. bear debate. |
June 8, 2026 | Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) 2026 Watch: Headline announcements for a differentiated 'Apple Intelligence' strategy. Market needs to see a credible plan to close the perceived AI deficit vs. Google. |
Late July 2026 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Call Watch: Forward guidance for Q4, specifically commentary on memory costs and component availability, anchored to the warnings from the Q1 call. |
Anytime (Next 6 months) | DOJ Antitrust Lawsuit Developments Watch: Any court ruling that favors the DOJ's arguments for forcing structural changes to the App Store, or the unsealing of damaging internal documents. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-19 | iPhone 17 Launch Event Details: Apple unveiled its new iPhone 17 lineup. The positive stock reaction anticipated the strong upgrade cycle that would later be confirmed in the Q1 FY2026 earnings report. | Rose significantly by 4.3% $245.03 -> $255.59 |
2025-10-30 | Q4 FY2025 Earnings Details: Reported solid results with iPhone revenue growth of 6.1% YoY and robust Services growth of 15.1% YoY, demonstrating continued strength in the high-margin ecosystem monetization thesis. | Muted (-0.4%) $270.88 -> $269.85 |
2026-01-29 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Details: Reported strong results; iPhone revenue grew 23% to $85.3B and Services grew 14% to $30.0B. Despite the beat, the stock's muted reaction suggested high expectations and margin warnings were priced in. | Flat (0.5%) $258.03 -> $259.23 |
2026-02-12 | Vision Pro Production Cut Reports Details: Reports surfaced that Apple significantly scaled back Vision Pro production due to sluggish sales. The stock fell, reflecting concerns about the failure of a potential new growth pillar. | Fell notably by 2.3% $261.73 -> $255.78 |
2026-03-13 | EU Rejects DMA Delay Appeal Details: The EU rejected Apple's appeal to delay Digital Markets Act (DMA) interoperability rules. Despite the negative regulatory headline, the stock demonstrated resilience, indicating the risk may be partially priced in. | Modest 1.1% gain $250.12 -> $252.82 |
Position Sizing
NORMAL
Diversification Alternatives
Apple is evolving from a premium hardware company reliant on iPhone upgrade cycles into a more resilient ecosystem, monetizing its 2.5 billion active device installed base through high-margin, recurring-revenue Services.
Filter all news through the lens of Services growth and margin expansion, and its ability to offset hardware cyclicality.
Services revenue growth accelerating above 15% YoY; sustained gross margins above 48%; significant growth in paid subscriptions; successful launch of new product categories like the MacBook Neo expanding the addressable market.
Slowing Services revenue growth; significant regulatory action impacting App Store commissions; sustained market share loss in China's smartphone market to local competitors; failure of new product categories to gain traction.
Quarterly fluctuations in iPhone sales unless they indicate a long-term trend change; short-term supply chain disruptions; minor changes in regional market share outside of China.
Repricing Catalyst
The market is currently focused on the growth and margin expansion of the Services business, which now accounts for over $30 billion in quarterly revenue at a gross margin of over 76%, almost double that of the Products segment. This provides a significant and growing stream of high-quality, recurring revenue that helps to de-risk the traditional hardware cycle.
iPhone
$85.3B TTM (59.3% of Total) · 40.7% MarginWhat It Is
iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for a premium smartphone experience, deeply integrated with Apple's ecosystem of software and services, creating high switching costs. The brand is associated with quality, security, and ease of use.
Competition
Services
$30.0B TTM (20.9% of Total) · 76.5% MarginWhat It Is
App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade
Who Pays & How
Apple's 2.5 billion active device users pay for a variety of digital content and services. The primary value proposition is the seamless integration with Apple hardware and software.
Competition
Mac
$8.4B TTM (5.8% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
MacBook Air, MacBook Pro, iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro
Who Pays & How
Consumers and professionals pay for a premium personal computing experience, with a focus on performance, design, and integration with the Apple ecosystem.
Competition
Wearables, Home and Accessories
$12.8B TTM (8.9% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Apple Watch, AirPods, HomePod, Apple TV, Beats products
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for accessories that are deeply integrated with the Apple ecosystem, offering ease of use and unique features.
Competition
iPad
$7.3B TTM (5.1% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
iPad, iPad Pro, iPad Air, iPad mini
Who Pays & How
Consumers and professionals pay for a versatile tablet computer that serves a wide range of use cases, from content consumption to productivity.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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