Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (5/5/2026): $63.0 | Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (5/5/2026): $63.0Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 154% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 154% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% |
| Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Surging Aluminum Prices Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Shortages.
Global aluminum prices experienced a significant increase during the period, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict exacerbated an existing global supply shortage, pushing London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices past $3,557 per metric ton and reaching a peak of $3,685 per metric ton by April 24, 2026. The Middle East region accounts for approximately 9% of the world's primary aluminum supply, and damage to major smelters in the area, coupled with logistical disruptions and elevated energy costs, contributed to critical low inventory levels at the LME.
2. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings and Positive Momentum.
Alcoa reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on January 22, 2026, just before the specified period. The company announced adjusted net income of $335 million, or $1.26 per common share, which exceeded analyst estimates by over 32%. Revenue for the quarter increased by 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion, and adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, improved by $276 million sequentially to $546 million, signaling strong operational performance and a positive trajectory heading into 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.1% change in AA stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 56.72 | 63.00 | 11.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,868 | 12,655 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 8.2% | -8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 16.1 | 25.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.1% | 38.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 72.0% change in AA stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.63 | 63.00 | 72.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,868 | 12,655 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.9% | 8.2% | -8.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.3 | 16.1 | 94.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 72.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 72.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 35.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.5% | 43.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 159.7% change in AA stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 1519.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.26 | 63.00 | 159.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,895 | 12,655 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.5% | 8.2% | 1519.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 103.9 | 16.1 | -84.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 257 | 264 | -2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 159.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 160.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 42.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | 25.3% | 49.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.9% change in AA stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 156.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.82 | 63.00 | 75.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,451 | 12,655 | 1.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 1.3 | 156.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 178 | 264 | -32.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 76.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | 35.7% | 59.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AA Return | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | 42% | 18% | 184% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -18% | 39% | 0% | 69% | 48% | 266% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AA Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 44% | 54% | 48% | 73% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AA Max Drawdown | -22% | -43% | -48% | -25% | -40% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -39% | -14% | -22% | -20% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CSTM, CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 960 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alcoa (AA)
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The ExxonMobil of aluminum.
Like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for the aluminum industry.
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- Bauxite: This is the raw ore mined by Alcoa, which is then processed into alumina.
- Alumina: An intermediate product derived from bauxite, sold to customers who process it into industrial chemical products or further into aluminum.
- Primary Aluminum: Offered in forms such as alloy ingot and value-add ingot, serving industries like transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire.
- Electricity: Generated from Alcoa's owned hydropower plants and sold in the wholesale market to various consumers and companies.
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William F. Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
William F. Oplinger joined Alcoa in 2000 and has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director since September 2023. Prior to his current role, he was Chief Operating Officer from February to September 2023, and Chief Financial Officer for Alcoa Corporation from 2016 to February 2023, and for Alcoa Inc. from 2013 to 2016. Mr. Oplinger has extensive experience leading Alcoa's finance function, overseeing treasury, pension, tax, controllership, financial planning and analysis, audit, investor relations, and transformation. He also served as Chief Operating Officer for Alcoa Global Primary Products, where he was responsible for the daily operations of its mining, refining, smelting, casting, and energy businesses, and oversaw significant restructuring efforts and the optimization of centers of excellence. Before joining Alcoa, he held engineering and management positions at Westinghouse and Emerson Electric.
Molly S. Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Molly S. Beerman was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 1, 2023. Prior to this, she served as Vice President and Controller for Alcoa Corporation since December 2016. Ms. Beerman is a seasoned financial executive known for her expertise in technical accounting, process improvement, and technology. She held various leadership roles with Alcoa Inc. from 2001 to 2012, including Director of Global Procurement Center of Excellence and Manager of North America Financial Accounting Services. She also served as Director of Global Shared Services Strategy and Solutions. From 2012 to 2015, she was Vice President of Finance and Administration for The Pittsburgh Foundation, a non-profit organization, and returned to Alcoa in 2015 in a consulting capacity for the finance department related to the separation transaction. Earlier in her career, she held financial management positions at Carnegie Mellon University, PNC Bank, and Deloitte.
Matthew T. Reed, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Matthew T. Reed serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, responsible for the daily operations of Alcoa's global bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. He joined Alcoa in June 2023 as Vice President Operations, Australia and President, Alcoa of Australia.
Andrew Hastings, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Andrew Hastings is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel, overseeing Alcoa's global legal, security, compliance, and governance matters. Before joining Alcoa in September 2023, he served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Lundin Mining Corporation from February 2019 to August 2023.
Renato Bacchi, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Renato Bacchi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, leading the company’s sales and trading, marketing, supply chain, commercial operations, procurement, and transformation initiatives. He also oversees Alcoa's global energy assets and breakthrough technology programs. He was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer effective February 1, 2022, and previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer.
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The key risks to Alcoa's business include the volatility of commodity prices and energy costs, geopolitical factors and trade policies, and increasing environmental regulations.
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Commodity Price Volatility and High Energy Costs
Alcoa's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile market prices of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, its primary products. As an energy-intensive industry, aluminum production is also significantly impacted by fluctuations in electricity and natural gas prices, which represent a substantial portion of Alcoa's production costs. This dual exposure to both input and output price volatility makes the company vulnerable to market swings.
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Geopolitical Risks, Trade Restrictions, and Tariffs
Geopolitical issues, trade sanctions, and tariffs pose a significant risk to Alcoa's global operations. Such factors can disrupt supply chains for raw materials like bauxite and alumina, lead to increased transportation costs, and affect market access. For example, US tariffs on imported aluminum can directly increase costs for the company's Aluminum segment.
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Environmental Regulations and Compliance Costs
The aluminum industry faces mounting scrutiny regarding its environmental footprint, particularly concerning greenhouse gas emissions from its energy-intensive production processes. Alcoa is subject to evolving environmental regulations, which necessitate substantial capital expenditure for compliance and asset optimization. Adherence to stricter environmental policies, including those related to water pollution and land use from mining activities, can lead to increased operating expenses and impact profitability.
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Alcoa Corporation operates in three main segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. The addressable markets for these products are global.
- Bauxite: The global bauxite market size was estimated at approximately USD 16.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 20.45 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global bauxite market size at USD 17.1 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific is the dominating region in the bauxite market.
- Alumina: The global alumina market size was estimated at over USD 40 billion in 2020 and is anticipated to grow to USD 46.53 billion by 2030. More recent estimates indicate the global alumina market size was approximately USD 46.83 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 70.8 billion by 2034. Smelter-grade alumina (SGA), which Alcoa produces, accounts for over 92% of global alumina demand. The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the alumina market.
- Aluminum: The global aluminum market size was estimated at USD 178.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 315.5 billion by 2034. Other estimations include a market size of USD 199.83 billion in 2024, growing to USD 307.36 billion by 2033, and USD 190.98 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 347.29 billion by 2035. The Asia Pacific region accounts for the largest share of the global aluminum market.
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increasing Global Aluminum Demand: The demand for aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to global trends in electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure. Aluminum is a critical component in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems (like solar panels and wind turbines), modern power grids, and data centers. Additionally, traditional sectors such as transportation, building and construction, and packaging continue to drive demand.
- Enhanced Production Capacity and Shipments: Alcoa anticipates increased aluminum production and shipment volumes resulting from the restart of key smelters. Notably, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain is on track for a full restart by mid-2026, contributing to higher output. Increased production from other facilities, such as Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway, is also expected to boost overall capacity.
- Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Positive market dynamics, including strong aluminum prices and regional premiums, are projected to contribute to revenue growth. Factors such as U.S. Section 232 tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe are expected to support higher Midwest premiums and overall aluminum pricing. Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in recent increases in global aluminum prices.
- Strategic Monetization of Non-Core Assets: Alcoa is actively pursuing a strategy to monetize its closed or curtailed industrial sites, including selling them to data center developers. The company expects to complete the first sale of these sites by June 2026, creating a new revenue stream by repurposing legacy assets for emerging digital infrastructure needs.
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Share Repurchases
- In July 2022, Alcoa announced an additional $500 million share repurchase program, with $275 million utilized in the second quarter of 2022.
- As of October 2025, approximately $500 million remained in the share repurchase plan, contingent on the availability of excess cash.
- Over the five-year period ending December 2025, Alcoa's 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio was -8.00%, indicating a net increase in outstanding shares despite repurchase authorizations.
Share Issuance
- In August 2024, Alcoa completed an all-stock acquisition of Alumina Limited, resulting in a significant issuance of Alcoa shares.
- As part of this transaction, 2,760,056,014 Alumina Limited shares were exchanged for 78,772,422 shares of Alcoa common stock on August 1, 2024.
- The company's shares outstanding increased by 20.22% in 2024 to 0.214 billion and by 22.06% in 2025 to 0.261 billion, largely due to the Alumina Limited acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, Alcoa acquired the remaining 40% interest in Alumina Limited, consolidating 100% ownership of the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) joint venture, for an implied consideration of approximately $2.7 billion in an all-stock transaction.
- In July 2025, Alcoa sold its 25.1% ownership interest in the Ma'aden Joint Venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) for approximately $1.35 billion, comprising 86 million Ma'aden shares (valued at $1.2 billion) and $150 million in cash.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 were $580 million.
- For the full year 2025, Alcoa's capital expenditures were $618 million, primarily focused on operational efficiency and strategic asset management.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $750 million, with a focus on smelter restarts and modernization efforts, including approximately $60 million through 2028 for the anode baking furnace at the Massena smelter.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alcoa Stock 5-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 16% | 03/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| With Alcoa Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Alcoa vs United Airlines: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Alcoa Stock Compare With Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| AA Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Alcoa Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 13.4% in 2024 and -12.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Alcoa (AA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Alcoa (AA) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/09/2026 | |
| Alcoa (+8.2%): Surges as Mideast Attacks Hit Rival Aluminum Smelters | 03/31/2026 | |
| Alcoa Hits Pause After A Strong Run — What Changed? | 03/30/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock Plummets -16% With 5-Day Losing Streak | 03/24/2026 | |
| What’s Next With Alcoa Stock? | 01/29/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to AA.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.7% |
| 03272026 | IFF | International Flavors & Fragrances | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.0% |
| 03132026 | IP | International Paper | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -18.3% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
| 03062026 | ARIS | Aris Mining | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.4% | -7.4% | -16.7% |
| 09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 8,931 |
| Op Inc LTM | 484 |
| FCF LTM | 171 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 53 |
| CFO LTM | 504 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 431 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 45.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 122.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 18.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 94.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 162.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 124.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 90.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 133.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 50.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alumina | 6,138 | 6,153 | 5,859 | 4,385 | 4,333 |
| Aluminum | 6,129 | 5,854 | 6,358 | 6,251 | 6,214 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 944 | 1,363 | 1,814 | 1,607 | |
| Corporate fixed assets, net | 392 | 364 | 374 | 453 | |
| Corporate goodwill | 142 | 141 | 140 | 141 | |
| Deferred income taxes | 333 | 296 | 506 | 655 | |
| Elimination of intersegment receivables | -159 | -126 | -261 | -193 | |
| Other | 371 | 355 | 222 | 182 | |
| Pension assets | 125 | 146 | 164 | ||
| Bauxite | 1,430 | 1,468 | |||
| Total | 12,267 | 14,155 | 14,756 | 15,025 | 14,860 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $63.06 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 16.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/07/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $64.86 | $47.87 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.8% | 31.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 56.3% | 51.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Upside Capture | 152.38 | 237.61 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.0% | 42.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.54 | 0.65 | 1.16 | 1.54 | 1.78 | 1.70 |
| Up Beta | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.42 | 0.75 | 1.72 | 1.52 |
| Down Beta | 0.34 | 1.36 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 1.13 | 1.59 |
| Up Capture | 65% | 92% | 171% | 398% | 470% | 852% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 31 | 65 | 132 | 371 |
| Down Capture | 208% | 63% | 123% | 139% | 141% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 22 | 33 | 60 | 120 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 150.7% | 51.9% | 1.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 23.8% | 16.5% | 1.12 | 49.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 42.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 31.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | 21.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 12.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 31.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 12.6% | 55.9% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 6.4% | 18.9% | 0.24 | 60.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 48.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 25.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 41.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 25.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 11.1% | 55.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 10.3% | 20.6% | 0.44 | 61.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 51.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 18.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 41.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 19.2% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/16/2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 7/10/2024 | 1.9% | -4.3% | -20.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 16 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 5.7% | 18.5% |
| Median Negative | -5.0% | -8.3% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Operational Tax Expense | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 64.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Production | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Shipments | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Operational tax expense | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 55.6% | Higher New | Actual: 45.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina segment production | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 2.1% | Higher New | Actual: 9.60 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina shipments | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | -9.8% | Lower New | Actual: 13.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum segment production | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 4.2% | Higher New | Actual: 2.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum shipments | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 5.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.55 Mil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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