How Big Could MARA Stock’s Next Fall Be?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

MARA Holdings (MARA) stock lost 36.8% over the past month. The S&P 500 gained about 1% over that time, while industry peers Riot Platforms and CleanSpark fell by similar amounts. Any broader market sell-off from here would pile onto those existing losses for current shareholders. So when the whole market has fallen before, how hard was MARA stock hit, and how long did it take to come back?

MARA Stock Has Usually Fallen Further Than The Market

During the 2022 inflation shock and Fed tightening, MARA stock fell 84%, compared with a 24% decline for the S&P 500. That drop stands as one of the three largest the stock has taken during a market shock. Across the market shocks it has traded through since 2013, MARA fell 49.4% on average, while the S&P 500 fell 13.0%.

Recoveries have taken anywhere from weeks to years. From its low, MARA stock took a median of 3.3 months to return to its peak close. However, it took 44 months to bounce back from the 2016-2017 bond selloff, a window that included a single-day drop of 35% or more that may reflect a corporate action rather than a market move, so this figure may overstate the recovery time. The 2022 fall has still not been made up, as the stock remains 79% below its close of January 4, 2022, when that shock began. That 3.3-month median counts only the falls MARA has made up.

Sales Fell And Operating Losses Widened At MARA

In the three months to June 30, 2026, MARA generated $175 million in revenue, a 26.7% decline from a year earlier. Over the full twelve months to June, sales grew just 0.7%, following a 41.3% expansion in the twelve months before.

MARA’s operating loss reached 153.2% of revenue in the June quarter, compared with 67.2% a year earlier. The company is also heavily in debt. Its debt amounts to 90.1% of its market value, against 19.4% for the S&P 500.

MARA Faces Lower Bitcoin Prices And New Debt

On its August 6 call, management said a 28% year-over-year drop in the average price of Bitcoin created a challenging revenue environment in the second quarter. Management also said the company’s cost per Bitcoin mined rose because mining grew more difficult across the entire network, a shift management called outside its control.

At the same time, MARA is paying for its $1.5 billion purchase of the power business Long Ridge using debt backed by its Bitcoin and by taking over Long Ridge’s balance sheet. Management described the $1.5 billion as the deal’s enterprise value. Once the transaction closes, management expects MARA to take on about $900 million of Long Ridge’s debt. On the call, management said the deal would close after FERC approval, which it expected before year end.

Following new borrowings secured by its Bitcoin, 54% of MARA’s Bitcoin holdings were pledged as collateral, management said on the call. Since then, blockchain trackers showed MARA moving 996 Bitcoin, worth about $81 million, to Galaxy Digital on October 9; the company has not said whether it was a sale. The share of MARA’s Bitcoin pledged as collateral is the figure to watch when the company reports next, expected in November 2026.

How To Act On MARA?

Now you know MARA better. Our purpose is to inform you so you can decide for yourself, and acting on one stock, in either direction, carries its own risk.

If you would rather own a portfolio built to spread that risk, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio holds 30 quality companies in equal weight. Since its inception in September 2020 it has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000.

See How The HQ Portfolio Works

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.