How Will Union Pacific Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, October 22, 2026. The company has a market value of about $170.7 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $25.4 billion in revenue and $10.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $7.3 billion.
Nobody knows how the market will take the numbers. What we can measure is how Union Pacific stock has reacted to its past earnings releases, which is useful context for anyone trading around the event.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Union Pacific Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 47% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 45%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 9 positive 1D returns is 4.0%, and the median of the 10 negative ones is -2.1%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 10.4% and -6.8%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/23/2026 | 4.0% | -0.1% | 3.9% |
| 4/23/2026 | 8.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% |
| 1/27/2026 | 0.7% | 1.9% | 14.4% |
| 10/23/2025 | -2.3% | -3.9% | -1.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | -4.5% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 1.4% |
| 1/23/2025 | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.4% | -3.8% | -1.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | -0.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.3% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
| 10/19/2023 | 2.1% | -0.3% | 6.5% |
| 7/26/2023 | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.3% | -5.2% | -1.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | -3.3% | -4.7% | -8.9% |
| 10/20/2022 | -6.8% | -2.1% | 4.9% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.2% | 2.5% | 12.8% |
| 4/21/2022 | -1.1% | -4.2% | -12.4% |
| 1/20/2022 | 1.1% | 2.3% | 4.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -3.1% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 7.4% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -5.2% | -12.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 1D and the following 5 days, at -0.48 across 19 releases: the early move has tended to partly reverse. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.48 | -0.44 | -0.14 |
| 3 Years | -0.36 | -0.55 | -0.29 |
Does A Peer That Reports First Offer A Clue?
JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) usually reports about a week before Union Pacific, and has already reported this season. Its stock fell 2.8% the day after its October 15 report. The table compares JBHT’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Union Pacific’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlation is -0.08, close to zero, so JBHT’s reaction has not foreshadowed Union Pacific’s in either direction.
| UNP Earnings Date | UNP 1D | JBHT 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/23/2026 | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| 4/23/2026 | 8.8% | 6.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 0.7% | -1.0% |
| 10/23/2025 | -2.3% | 22.1% |
| 7/24/2025 | -4.5% | 1.7% |
| 4/24/2025 | -2.0% | -7.7% |
| 1/23/2025 | 5.2% | -7.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -4.4% | 3.1% |
| 7/25/2024 | -0.9% | -6.9% |
| 4/25/2024 | 5.0% | -8.1% |
| 1/25/2024 | -0.3% | 0.9% |
| 10/19/2023 | 2.1% | -8.8% |
| 7/26/2023 | 10.4% | 3.8% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 1/24/2023 | -3.3% | 5.0% |
| 10/20/2022 | -6.8% | 0.04% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/21/2022 | -1.1% | 1.4% |
| 1/20/2022 | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Correlation | – | -0.08 |
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