Is Now The Right Time For MARA Stock?
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MARA Holdings (MARA) stock closed at $7.48 on October 20, 2026, ending the day 63.9% below its highest close of the past year. The shares have lost 39.7% in the last three months alone. If you buy the stock today, you are betting that MARA’s Bitcoin mining revenue will stop shrinking and that its move into AI infrastructure will pay off, even alongside the debt taken on to fund those efforts. Has the price fallen further than MARA’s sales?
MARA’s Price Has Fallen Faster Than Its Sales
The shares currently trade at 3.5 times MARA’s sales over the twelve months to June, down from 6.6 times at the end of June on those same sales. The loss, however, has widened. MARA recorded an operating loss of $1.0 billion over those twelve months, up from $603 million a year earlier. The S&P 500 trades at 3.1 times its sales while generating an operating profit, leaving MARA cheap only against its own price in June.
Sales have not stopped shrinking. June quarter revenue came in at $175 million, landing 26.7% below the figure from a year earlier. On its August 6 call, MARA said a 28% fall in Bitcoin’s average price had reduced revenue, meaning sales rise and fall with a price it does not set.
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What The Long Ridge Power Deal Adds, And What It Costs
Analysts expect sales to turn up, and a deal MARA has not yet closed still needs approval. The consensus for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 points to revenue of about $186 million, stepping above what MARA reported for the June quarter.
That pending transaction is the Long Ridge acquisition. MARA expects the deal to add about $144 million a year in EBITDA, a measure of operating earnings before interest and other charges, with most of its output sold under long-term contracts. The purchase will close following FERC approval, which MARA expects before year end. At that point, MARA said its power portfolio would reach about 4.8 gigawatts.
MARA is paying for the deal using Bitcoin-backed debt and by taking on Long Ridge’s balance sheet, including about $900 million of its debt. At the end of June, MARA held $2.5 billion of debt and its filings data shows $421 million of cash. On the August 6 call, the company said 54% of its Bitcoin holdings were pledged as collateral under its borrowings.
What MARA’s November Report Can And Cannot Settle
MARA is expected to report earnings on or around November 11, 2026, covering the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the three months to September. Over its last six reports, the shares fell in the two trading days following four of the releases and rose after two. The stock lost 10.2% after the August report and gained 11.8% after the February one.
Revenue will not tell the whole story. About $343 million of MARA’s June quarter net loss came from marking its digital assets to market value, so the bottom line also moves with Bitcoin’s price. That tie to Bitcoin also makes the shares swing harder than the broader market: during the 2022 inflation shock, the stock fell 84% from peak to low, against 24% for the S&P 500.
So far, MARA’s revenue remains below levels from a year earlier, and the Long Ridge acquisition still waits for approval. Revenue for the September quarter, weighed against the consensus, is the number to watch on or around November 11. The report cannot settle the Long Ridge deal, which still needs FERC approval.
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