How Will RTX Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
RTX (NYSE:RTX) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, July 23, 2026. The company has $261 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $90 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $9.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $7.3 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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RTX’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.7%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/21/2026 | -4.4% | -11.4% | -10.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -9.8% | -1.0% | 8.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -0.3% | -0.4% | -5.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 8.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 4.4% |
| 1/23/2024 | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% |
| 10/24/2023 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% |
| 7/25/2023 | -10.2% | -9.4% | -11.4% |
| 4/25/2023 | -1.3% | -2.1% | -7.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.4% |
| 10/25/2022 | -1.5% | 5.7% | 8.6% |
| 7/26/2022 | -4.6% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| 4/26/2022 | -0.4% | -5.4% | -5.9% |
| 1/25/2022 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.7% |
| 10/26/2021 | -2.3% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
| 7/27/2021 | 2.6% | 0.8% | -0.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.5% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -11.4% | -11.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.6% | -18.8% | 24.1% |
| 3Y History | -7.7% | -24.3% | 7.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of RTX stock compared with the stock performance of GE, a peer that reported earnings just before RTX. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX Earnings Dates | RTX | GE |
| 1/27/2026 | 3.7% | -7.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.6% | -1.1% |
| 1/28/2025 | 2.6% | 4.5% |
| 7/25/2024 | 8.2% | -0.3% |
| 1/24/2023 | 3.3% | 6.9% |
| CORRELATION | -2.0% |
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