How Will Samsara Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Samsara (NYSE:IOT) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, June 4, 2026. The company has $22 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $1.6 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-53 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-9.1 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Samsara’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 17 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 65% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 15%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -8.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/5/2026 | 19.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% |
| 12/4/2025 | 11.1% | 7.7% | -10.8% |
| 9/4/2025 | 17.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% |
| 6/5/2025 | -4.6% | -13.9% | -16.9% |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.6% | -11.3% | -20.1% |
| 12/5/2024 | -5.2% | -15.8% | -22.1% |
| 9/5/2024 | 13.6% | 19.4% | 22.8% |
| 6/6/2024 | -12.3% | -18.0% | 0.8% |
| 3/7/2024 | 14.0% | 7.3% | -1.8% |
| 11/30/2023 | 25.6% | 22.5% | 13.9% |
| 8/31/2023 | 13.0% | 11.7% | -7.1% |
| 6/1/2023 | 27.9% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| 3/2/2023 | 15.4% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| 12/1/2022 | 20.2% | 25.7% | 20.4% |
| 8/31/2022 | -13.0% | -14.3% | -18.8% |
| 6/2/2022 | -3.2% | 0.8% | 10.3% |
| 3/2/2022 | 1.6% | 5.3% | -3.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 9 |
| # Negative | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 15.4% | 9.8% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -8.8% | -14.3% | -13.8% |
| Max Positive | 27.9% | 46.1% | 44.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -18.0% | -22.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 26.7% | -5.9% | -29.5% |
| 3Y History | -4.0% | -31.7% | -41.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Samsara stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Samsara. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOT Earnings Dates | IOT | TRMB | VNT | ZBRA |
| 3/5/2026 | 19.5% | 2.3% | -5.9% | -16.2% |
| 12/4/2025 | 11.1% | 2.1% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 9/4/2025 | 17.4% | -5.3% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 6/5/2025 | -4.6% | 7.3% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 3/6/2025 | -15.6% | -10.5% | -11.5% | -8.9% |
| 12/5/2024 | -5.2% | 3.8% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 3/7/2024 | 14.0% | 14.3% | 12.9% | 1.7% |
| 11/30/2023 | 25.6% | 13.3% | 7.3% | N/A* |
| 8/31/2023 | 13.0% | -1.3% | 5.5% | N/A* |
| 6/1/2023 | 27.9% | 1.3% | 8.4% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2023 | 15.4% | -7.1% | 3.2% | -8.2% |
| 12/1/2022 | 20.2% | 13.9% | 12.6% | N/A* |
| 8/31/2022 | -13.0% | -7.1% | -11.3% | -6.7% |
| 6/2/2022 | -3.2% | 11.0% | 1.2% | N/A* |
| 3/2/2022 | 1.6% | -2.9% | -2.3% | -11.0% |
| CORRELATION | -23.1% | 36.6% | 78.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after IOT
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