How Will Ferguson Enterprises Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Ferguson Enterprises (NYSE:FERG) is set to report its earnings on Monday, June 1, 2026. The company has $44 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $32 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.0 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.1 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.

Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.

See earnings reaction history of all stocks

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Ferguson Enterprises’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 7 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 3 positive and 4 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 43% of the time.
• The percentage remains the same at 43% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 3 positive returns = 5.0%, and median of the 4 negative returns = -6.6%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Ferguson Enterprises stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Ferguson Enterprises. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

   * N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after FERG

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