How Will Autodesk Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 28, 2026. The company has $51 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.8 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.1 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding ADSK stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
- CSCO Stock: Two Signals Pointing The Same Way
- Decoding AVGO Stock’s Premium Valuation
- What Could Push NVDA Stock Higher From Here?
- Cash Machine Trading Cheap – Inspire Medical Systems Stock Set to Run?
- Five-Year Tally: AT&T Stock Delivers $58 Bil Gain
- Years of Rewards: $43 Bil From Caterpillar Stock
Autodesk’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -7.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.3% | 13.1% | -1.5% |
| 11/25/2025 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
| 8/28/2025 | 9.1% | 13.1% | 11.6% |
| 5/22/2025 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.9% | -7.8% | -7.3% |
| 11/26/2024 | -8.6% | -4.3% | -6.4% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.1% | -3.0% | 6.7% |
| 6/3/2024 | 0.6% | 3.5% | 16.8% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.5% | -1.7% | 0.5% |
| 11/21/2023 | -6.9% | -1.8% | 11.1% |
| 8/23/2023 | 2.1% | 8.4% | -0.2% |
| 5/25/2023 | 0.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| 2/23/2023 | -12.9% | -9.1% | -9.5% |
| 11/22/2022 | -5.7% | -3.3% | -10.0% |
| 8/24/2022 | 2.7% | -5.9% | -13.9% |
| 5/26/2022 | 10.3% | 8.7% | -7.7% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.7% | -3.7% | -2.8% |
| 11/23/2021 | -15.5% | -17.9% | -7.6% |
| 8/25/2021 | -9.4% | -11.4% | -13.9% |
| 5/27/2021 | -0.3% | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 6.1% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -7.7% | -4.0% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 13.1% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.5% | -17.9% | -13.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -14.2% | -44.2% | -33.2% |
| 3Y History | -6.9% | -42.1% | -26.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Autodesk stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Autodesk. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSK Earnings Dates | ADSK | PTC | TRMB | BSY |
| 2/26/2026 | 5.3% | 3.9% | -0.9% | N/A* |
| 11/25/2025 | 2.4% | -8.7% | 0.3% | -14.9% |
| 8/28/2025 | 9.1% | 6.2% | -2.3% | -0.4% |
| 5/22/2025 | 0.1% | N/A* | 6.8% | 3.0% |
| 2/27/2025 | -2.9% | -14.2% | -6.5% | -1.3% |
| 11/26/2024 | -8.6% | 0.6% | -0.4% | -3.7% |
| 8/29/2024 | 0.1% | -0.4% | 9.4% | 8.0% |
| 6/3/2024 | 0.6% | N/A* | N/A* | -9.5% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.5% | 1.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% |
| 11/21/2023 | -6.9% | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| 8/23/2023 | 2.1% | -0.9% | -4.1% | -6.3% |
| 5/25/2023 | 0.7% | 4.6% | -2.1% | 2.5% |
| 2/23/2023 | -12.9% | -5.8% | -5.9% | N/A* |
| 11/22/2022 | -5.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% |
| 8/24/2022 | 2.7% | -1.4% | 0.1% | -4.3% |
| 5/26/2022 | 10.3% | 14.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.7% | -3.2% | -5.4% | N/A* |
| 11/23/2021 | -15.5% | -15.5% | -2.6% | -14.2% |
| 8/25/2021 | -9.4% | -9.3% | 8.6% | 0.5% |
| CORRELATION | 46.3% | -5.3% | -32.8% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ADSK
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as ADSK, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.