How Will Cencora Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Cencora (NYSE:COR) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $59 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $326 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.6 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Cencora’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -3.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -8.8% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.7% | 6.0% | -1.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.9% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | 4.7% | -4.1% | -0.6% |
| 2/5/2025 | 0.7% | -1.9% | 1.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -4.1% | -5.1% | -7.5% |
| 1/31/2024 | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 9.3% |
| 8/2/2023 | 1.2% | -2.0% | -5.1% |
| 5/2/2023 | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| 2/1/2023 | -4.7% | -7.2% | -8.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 13.1% |
| 8/3/2022 | -2.7% | 1.3% | 2.9% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.0% | 5.9% | -1.4% |
| 2/2/2022 | -1.1% | 3.3% | 6.0% |
| 11/4/2021 | -1.2% | -2.0% | -8.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | 1.5% | -3.8% | -0.5% |
| 5/5/2021 | -5.6% | -4.6% | -6.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -2.9% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 5.5% | 6.6% | 13.1% |
| Max Negative | -8.8% | -7.2% | -8.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -37.5% | -27.8% | -35.4% |
| 3Y History | -48.9% | -48.3% | -58.3% |
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