How Will Strategy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $52 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $477 Mil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-41 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-3.8 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding MSTR stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
- Salesforce Stock Can Sink, Here Is How
- Is Philip Morris International Stock Undervalued Stock Or Value Trap?
- Is LLY Stock Setup For A Rerating?
- Is Tenet Healthcare Stock an Under-Analyzed Capital Compounder Opportunity?
- 5 Catalysts to Monitor Over In The Next 2 Quarters For LLY Stock
- Could Accenture Stock’s Cash Flow Spark the Next Rally?
Strategy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 11 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 4 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 36% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 44% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 4 positive returns = 4.6%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -4.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | 26.1% | 15.0% | 29.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | 5.9% | -6.8% | -28.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.8% | 0.0% | -16.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.3% | 8.6% | -2.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.3% | -2.9% | -14.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.1% | 4.2% | 56.7% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.2% | -10.0% | -12.4% |
| 4/29/2024 | -17.6% | -1.9% | 25.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.0% | 37.8% | 161.0% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.5% | -14.8% | -18.7% |
| 2/1/2022 | -6.5% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| # Negative | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 11.3% | 29.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -6.8% | -15.7% |
| Max Positive | 26.1% | 37.8% | 161.0% |
| Max Negative | -17.6% | -14.8% | -28.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -20.2% | -5.0% | 78.5% |
| 3Y History | -19.8% | -6.9% | 84.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Strategy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Strategy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR Earnings Dates | MSTR | MSFT | GOOGL | IBM |
| 2/5/2026 | 26.1% | -18.3% | -0.5% | -1.5% |
| 10/30/2025 | 5.9% | -2.9% | 2.5% | 7.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.8% | 3.9% | 0.9% | -10.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | 3.3% | 7.6% | 1.3% | -2.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -3.3% | -6.6% | -7.3% | 15.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.1% | N/A* | 2.8% | -12.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.2% | -1.4% | -6.1% | 3.1% |
| 4/29/2024 | -17.6% | 0.8% | 6.5% | -9.1% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.0% | -0.8% | -4.9% | 5.5% |
| 2/2/2023 | -2.5% | 9.3% | N/A* | -3.1% |
| 2/1/2022 | -6.5% | 7.0% | N/A* | 5.2% |
| CORRELATION | -47.9% | -27.6% | 32.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MSTR
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as MSTR, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.