How Will Occidental Petroleum Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $58 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $22 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Smart investing isn’t about stock picking or prediction, it’s about asset allocation. See how Trefis’ Boston-based wealth management partner does it. It has included the High Quality Portfolio as part of its asset allocation strategy.
Occidental Petroleum’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 69% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.1%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/10/2026 | -1.0% | -2.8% | |
| 1/20/2026 | -1.1% | 2.9% | 10.3% |
| 11/10/2025 | 0.1% | -0.3% | -0.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 7.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.2% | 12.3% | 9.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | 4.4% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.7% | 0.4% | -3.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | 4.3% | 1.5% | -7.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.1% | -3.1% | -7.7% |
| 2/14/2024 | 4.9% | 5.6% | 9.7% |
| 11/7/2023 | 1.6% | 2.5% | -6.0% |
| 8/2/2023 | 1.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | -3.6% | -1.4% | 1.6% |
| 11/8/2022 | -9.2% | -0.5% | -14.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | -6.3% | -4.1% | 9.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | 1.2% | 14.4% | 9.9% |
| 2/24/2022 | -0.5% | 22.7% | 51.2% |
| 11/4/2021 | -1.0% | -4.8% | -11.6% |
| 8/3/2021 | -2.8% | -0.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/10/2021 | -7.9% | -0.9% | 6.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.8% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -1.4% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.2% | 22.7% | 51.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -4.8% | -14.9% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -14.7% | -16.4% | 35.7% |
| 3Y History | -31.3% | -21.0% | 48.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Occidental Petroleum stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Occidental Petroleum. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| OXY Earnings Dates | OXY | CVX |
| 11/10/2025 | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 6.2% | -2.0% |
| 2/18/2025 | 4.4% | 5.8% |
| 11/12/2024 | 1.7% | 1.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | 4.3% | -4.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -2.1% | -1.9% |
| 2/14/2024 | 4.9% | -0.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 8/2/2023 | 1.2% | -1.3% |
| 5/9/2023 | -3.6% | -5.6% |
| 11/8/2022 | -9.2% | 3.0% |
| 8/2/2022 | -6.3% | -2.8% |
| 5/10/2022 | 1.2% | 2.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | -0.5% | 4.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | -1.0% | -0.9% |
| 8/3/2021 | -2.8% | 0.8% |
| CORRELATION | -34.8% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as OXY, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.