How Will Emerson Electric Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Emerson Electric (NYSE:EMR) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $77 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $18 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $3.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $2.3 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding EMR stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
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Emerson Electric’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 3.4% | 6.3% | -6.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.8% | -6.0% | 0.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -4.7% | -5.4% | -4.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 2.4% | 13.3% | 14.7% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.3% | -0.6% | -8.5% |
| 11/5/2024 | 7.2% | 17.7% | 22.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -7.6% | -3.4% | -6.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 4.9% | 6.5% | -0.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | 10.4% | 11.1% | 17.6% |
| 11/7/2023 | -7.4% | -5.6% | -3.8% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% |
| 5/3/2023 | 1.9% | 1.7% | -2.9% |
| 2/8/2023 | -5.7% | -5.7% | -7.9% |
| 10/31/2022 | -0.9% | 1.9% | 9.2% |
| 8/9/2022 | -3.8% | -0.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/4/2022 | 1.0% | -7.6% | -0.0% |
| 2/2/2022 | 5.5% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| 11/3/2021 | -4.9% | -2.6% | -9.3% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.9% | 1.9% | 3.4% |
| 5/5/2021 | -0.2% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.8% | -5.4% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.4% | 17.7% | 22.8% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -7.6% | -9.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 1.9% | 19.8% | -4.0% |
| 3Y History | 12.4% | 22.8% | -4.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Emerson Electric stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Emerson Electric. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| EMR Earnings Dates | EMR | HON | PH |
| 2/3/2026 | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.8% | -5.3% | N/A* |
| 8/6/2025 | -4.7% | -2.3% | N/A* |
| 5/7/2025 | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -2.3% | N/A* | -2.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 7.2% | -0.2% | 3.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -7.6% | -7.7% | N/A* |
| 5/8/2024 | 4.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% |
| 2/7/2024 | 10.4% | N/A* | 2.8% |
| 11/7/2023 | -7.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.8% | -1.8% | N/A* |
| 5/3/2023 | 1.9% | -0.3% | N/A* |
| 2/8/2023 | -5.7% | -2.5% | 4.3% |
| 10/31/2022 | -0.9% | 3.8% | N/A* |
| 8/9/2022 | -3.8% | 1.9% | -1.3% |
| 5/4/2022 | 1.0% | 6.4% | N/A* |
| 11/3/2021 | -4.9% | 2.5% | N/A* |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.9% | 0.1% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -7.0% | -17.1% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after EMR
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