How Will Duke Energy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Duke Energy (NYSE:DUK) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $100 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $32 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $8.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Duke Energy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 1.1%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -0.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.3% | 2.2% | 7.5% |
| 11/7/2025 | -0.6% | 0.1% | -7.0% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -8.0% | -5.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.4% | -2.1% | 4.4% |
| 8/8/2023 | 0.7% | -0.7% | -1.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.1% | -3.1% | -5.2% |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.6% | 1.8% | -2.5% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.5% | 1.7% | 8.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.5% | -0.2% | -1.6% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.5% | -0.9% | 1.8% |
| 2/10/2022 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.2% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 5/10/2021 | 2.9% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.1% | 1.0% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.5% | -0.8% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 2.9% | 3.2% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -1.5% | -8.0% | -7.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -29.0% | -35.6% | -8.7% |
| 3Y History | -25.8% | -15.5% | -22.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Duke Energy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Duke Energy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| DUK Earnings Dates | DUK | NEE |
| 2/10/2026 | 1.3% | 4.2% |
| 11/7/2025 | -0.6% | 0.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | -2.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.1% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | -5.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -12.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 8.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | -2.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.4% | 8.7% |
| 8/8/2023 | 0.7% | -8.9% |
| 5/9/2023 | 1.1% | -2.9% |
| 2/9/2023 | 1.6% | -4.3% |
| 11/4/2022 | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -0.5% | 9.6% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.5% | -7.2% |
| 2/10/2022 | -0.0% | 0.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | 1.1% | 4.3% |
| CORRELATION | -17.8% |
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