How Will ON Semiconductor Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ:ON) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $40 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $751 Mil in operating profits and net income of $121 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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ON Semiconductor’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 7.6%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -8.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/9/2026 | 3.5% | 10.5% | -9.0% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.8% | -4.5% | 14.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | -15.6% | -16.1% | -13.9% |
| 5/5/2025 | -8.4% | -2.2% | 13.0% |
| 2/10/2025 | -8.2% | 1.1% | -16.4% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.4% | -0.4% | 1.6% |
| 7/29/2024 | 11.5% | -3.2% | 6.6% |
| 4/29/2024 | 4.1% | 3.4% | 8.2% |
| 2/5/2024 | 9.5% | 14.1% | 8.7% |
| 10/30/2023 | -21.8% | -18.3% | -17.3% |
| 7/31/2023 | 2.5% | -2.6% | -10.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | 8.9% | 12.9% | 16.7% |
| 2/6/2023 | -0.6% | 3.6% | -2.7% |
| 10/31/2022 | -9.0% | -6.4% | 4.8% |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.7% | 1.3% | 4.1% |
| 5/2/2022 | 6.7% | 5.8% | 16.4% |
| 2/7/2022 | 8.4% | 2.7% | -2.8% |
| 11/1/2021 | 14.4% | 23.0% | 27.8% |
| 8/2/2021 | 11.7% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| 5/3/2021 | -3.7% | -0.9% | 2.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -3.2% | -10.9% |
| Max Positive | 14.4% | 23.0% | 27.8% |
| Max Negative | -21.8% | -18.3% | -17.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -29.4% | -28.0% | -7.8% |
| 3Y History | -34.3% | -30.7% | -21.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of ON Semiconductor stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before ON Semiconductor. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ON Earnings Dates | ON | TXN | NXPI |
| 2/9/2026 | 3.5% | 12.0% | 3.7% |
| 11/3/2025 | 0.8% | -9.9% | -1.2% |
| 8/4/2025 | -15.6% | -14.4% | -7.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | -8.4% | 7.7% | -5.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | -8.2% | -9.5% | 3.8% |
| 10/28/2024 | 1.4% | 6.1% | N/A* |
| 7/29/2024 | 11.5% | 1.8% | -2.5% |
| 4/29/2024 | 4.1% | 8.4% | N/A* |
| 2/5/2024 | 9.5% | -8.1% | N/A* |
| 10/30/2023 | -21.8% | -3.5% | N/A* |
| 7/31/2023 | 2.5% | -2.6% | 1.4% |
| 5/1/2023 | 8.9% | -1.6% | N/A* |
| 2/6/2023 | -0.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
| 10/31/2022 | -9.0% | -0.2% | N/A* |
| 8/1/2022 | -4.7% | 11.9% | 5.8% |
| 5/2/2022 | 6.7% | 3.3% | N/A* |
| 2/7/2022 | 8.4% | -1.7% | -5.4% |
| 11/1/2021 | 14.4% | -4.2% | N/A* |
| 8/2/2021 | 11.7% | -1.3% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | 3.9% | -21.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ON
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