How Will Church & Dwight Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $23 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.1 Bil in operating profits and net income of $737 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Church & Dwight’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 4.4%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -1.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 1/30/2026 | 4.7% | 9.4% | 13.4% |
| 10/31/2025 | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| 8/1/2025 | 0.3% | -1.2% | -0.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.0% | -7.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/31/2025 | -1.5% | -1.6% | 4.9% |
| 11/1/2024 | 4.8% | 4.0% | 11.6% |
| 8/2/2024 | -1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.4% | -1.8% | -0.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | -5.6% | -2.5% | 3.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.3% | -0.9% | -2.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.8% | 5.9% | 1.9% |
| 2/3/2023 | 3.9% | 2.7% | 5.1% |
| 10/28/2022 | -0.2% | -6.6% | 4.3% |
| 7/29/2022 | -8.6% | -9.6% | -11.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | -7.3% | -13.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | 4.4% | 4.4% | -0.6% |
| 10/29/2021 | 2.4% | 4.8% | 10.2% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.4% | -3.6% | -4.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.1% | -1.6% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 9.4% | 13.4% |
| Max Negative | -8.6% | -9.6% | -13.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 12.0% | -17.9% | -14.5% |
| 3Y History | -3.2% | -51.2% | -66.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Church & Dwight stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Church & Dwight. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| CHD Earnings Dates | CHD | PG | KMB |
| 1/30/2026 | 4.7% | 1.9% | -0.6% |
| 10/31/2025 | 7.2% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/1/2025 | 0.3% | -3.8% | N/A* |
| 5/1/2025 | -7.0% | 0.3% | -5.8% |
| 1/31/2025 | -1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 11/1/2024 | 4.8% | -3.6% | -2.3% |
| 8/2/2024 | -1.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 0.3% |
| 2/2/2024 | -2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% |
| 11/3/2023 | -5.6% | 0.7% | -0.9% |
| 7/28/2023 | 1.3% | N/A* | -1.9% |
| 4/27/2023 | 5.8% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| 2/3/2023 | 3.9% | 0.1% | -0.6% |
| 10/28/2022 | -0.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% |
| 7/29/2022 | -8.6% | N/A* | -1.6% |
| 4/28/2022 | -3.6% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | 4.4% | -0.4% | 3.0% |
| 10/29/2021 | 2.4% | 2.3% | -0.5% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.4% | N/A* | 0.0% |
| CORRELATION | 23.8% | 2.3% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CHD
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