How Will Quanta Services Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Quanta Services (NYSE:PWR) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $94 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $28 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Quanta Services’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 6.7%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/19/2026 | 6.7% | 8.4% | 11.3% |
| 10/30/2025 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -1.2% | -5.7% | -6.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 10.0% | 10.6% | 17.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | -3.7% | -8.0% | -7.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | -3.2% | -0.3% | 10.6% |
| 8/1/2024 | -4.0% | -6.4% | 2.1% |
| 5/2/2024 | -0.4% | 3.5% | 7.8% |
| 2/22/2024 | 10.3% | 13.0% | 21.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 9.7% | 6.4% | 19.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 3.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.7% | 1.9% | 7.1% |
| 2/23/2023 | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.6% | 4.6% | 11.9% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -0.2% | -10.3% | 6.5% |
| 2/24/2022 | 10.6% | 12.1% | 34.8% |
| 11/4/2021 | -3.0% | -0.7% | -3.6% |
| 8/5/2021 | 3.9% | 9.1% | 28.1% |
| 5/6/2021 | 1.2% | -2.8% | -4.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 16 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.7% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 10.6% | 13.0% | 34.8% |
| Max Negative | -4.0% | -10.3% | -7.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 7.9% | 32.9% | 46.3% |
| 3Y History | 3.7% | 21.9% | 63.3% |
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