How Will ConocoPhillips Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $153 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $59 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $11 Bil in operating profits and net income of $8.0 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding COP stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
- EQT Looks Smarter Buy Than ConocoPhillips Stock
- Buy or Sell ConocoPhillips Stock?
- Why ConocoPhillips Stock Jumped 30%?
- Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR
- Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR
- How Will ConocoPhillips’ Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
ConocoPhillips’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 35% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 2.3%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.4% | 3.4% | 9.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | 6.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.5% | -3.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.4% | -2.0% | 1.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 4.6% | -1.9% | -0.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | 0.7% | 3.4% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.3% | 4.6% | 7.1% |
| 2/2/2023 | -5.4% | -5.9% | -7.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.8% | -1.0% | -3.1% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.6% | 5.1% | 18.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | -1.0% | -4.6% | 14.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -1.5% | 0.8% | 9.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | -2.1% | 1.8% | -7.2% |
| 8/3/2021 | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 5/4/2021 | -0.3% | 8.1% | 12.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 3.2% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -1.9% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 10.3% | 18.3% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -5.9% | -8.8% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -31.7% | -45.2% | 4.2% |
| 3Y History | -34.7% | -50.7% | -14.7% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of ConocoPhillips stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before ConocoPhillips. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| COP Earnings Dates | COP | OXY |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.4% | 6.7% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 2.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 6.2% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.6% | -11.7% |
| CORRELATION | 54.9% |
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as COP, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.