How Will Morgan Stanley Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026. The company has $287 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $64 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $21 Bil in operating profits and net income of $16 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Morgan Stanley’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -2.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 10.1% |
| 7/16/2025 | -1.3% | -1.1% | 5.1% |
| 4/11/2025 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 20.2% |
| 1/16/2025 | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| 10/16/2024 | 6.5% | 5.4% | 19.2% |
| 7/16/2024 | 0.9% | -2.7% | -7.3% |
| 1/16/2024 | -4.2% | -4.4% | -5.5% |
| 10/18/2023 | -6.8% | -10.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/18/2023 | 6.4% | 9.6% | 0.7% |
| 4/19/2023 | 0.7% | -2.0% | -5.8% |
| 1/17/2023 | 5.9% | 6.0% | 10.6% |
| 10/14/2022 | -5.1% | -3.4% | 15.6% |
| 7/14/2022 | -0.4% | 9.1% | 21.4% |
| 4/14/2022 | 0.7% | 5.7% | -3.4% |
| 1/19/2022 | 1.8% | 5.4% | 8.3% |
| 10/14/2021 | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 7/15/2021 | 0.2% | 3.5% | 14.0% |
| 4/16/2021 | -2.8% | -3.1% | 8.5% |
| 1/20/2021 | -0.2% | -5.0% | 0.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -3.3% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.6% | 21.4% |
| Max Negative | -6.8% | -10.9% | -7.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -8.0% | -27.4% | -35.0% |
| 3Y History | 29.5% | -1.5% | -27.1% |
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