How Will JPMorgan Chase Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. The company has $909 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $179 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $73 Bil in operating profits and net income of $58 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself before the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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JPMorgan Chase’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -1.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2025 | -1.9% | -1.8% | 2.5% |
| 7/15/2025 | -0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 4/11/2025 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 14.5% |
| 1/15/2025 | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.7% |
| 10/11/2024 | 4.4% | 5.4% | 11.3% |
| 7/12/2024 | -1.2% | 1.2% | -0.8% |
| 4/12/2024 | -6.5% | -7.3% | 1.7% |
| 1/12/2024 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| 10/13/2023 | 1.5% | -0.4% | 0.4% |
| 7/14/2023 | 0.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% |
| 4/14/2023 | 7.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| 1/13/2023 | 2.5% | -3.2% | 2.2% |
| 10/14/2022 | 1.7% | 6.2% | 23.7% |
| 7/14/2022 | -3.5% | 2.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/13/2022 | -3.2% | 0.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/14/2022 | -6.1% | -13.8% | -9.4% |
| 10/13/2021 | -2.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 7/13/2021 | -1.5% | -7.0% | 0.8% |
| 4/14/2021 | -1.9% | -3.1% | 2.2% |
| 1/15/2021 | -1.8% | -5.2% | 2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 17 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -4.2% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.6% | 9.2% | 23.7% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -13.8% | -10.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 9.5% | 6.3% | -20.8% |
| 3Y History | -14.2% | -21.2% | -40.7% |
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