How Will Chewy Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, December 10, 2025. The company has $14 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $163 Mil in operating profits and net income of $151 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Chewy’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 5 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 28% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 27% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 11%, and median of the 13 negative returns = -8.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/10/2025 | -16.6% | -9.3% | -9.1% |
| 6/11/2025 | -11.0% | -9.3% | -17.4% |
| 3/26/2025 | -1.1% | -0.4% | 7.2% |
| 12/4/2024 | -0.4% | -6.7% | 7.0% |
| 8/28/2024 | 11.1% | 5.0% | 14.6% |
| 5/29/2024 | 27.1% | 31.5% | 71.8% |
| 3/20/2024 | -10.3% | -11.8% | -9.0% |
| 12/6/2023 | -0.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% |
| 8/30/2023 | -12.3% | -13.7% | -33.2% |
| 5/31/2023 | 21.6% | 24.6% | 33.8% |
| 3/22/2023 | -7.5% | -1.2% | -13.0% |
| 12/8/2022 | 4.0% | -2.5% | -2.3% |
| 8/30/2022 | -8.2% | -8.4% | -16.9% |
| 3/29/2022 | -16.1% | -13.3% | -36.7% |
| 12/9/2021 | -8.1% | -5.2% | -11.3% |
| 9/1/2021 | -9.3% | -12.4% | -22.9% |
| 6/10/2021 | -5.8% | -2.1% | 6.3% |
| 3/30/2021 | 5.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| # Negative | 13 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 11.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -8.2% | -8.4% | -14.9% |
| Max Positive | 27.1% | 31.5% | 71.8% |
| Max Negative | -16.6% | -13.7% | -36.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -2.6% | 59.7% | 41.4% |
| 3Y History | -0.2% | 61.0% | 39.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Chewy stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Chewy. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| CHWY Earnings Dates | CHWY | WOOF |
| 9/10/2025 | -16.6% | 10.8% |
| 6/11/2025 | -11.0% | -27.3% |
| 5/29/2024 | 27.1% | 8.7% |
| 3/20/2024 | -10.3% | -21.4% |
| 12/6/2023 | -0.6% | 27.5% |
| 8/30/2023 | -12.3% | 1.2% |
| 5/31/2023 | 21.6% | -8.3% |
| 12/8/2022 | 4.0% | -4.1% |
| 8/30/2022 | -8.2% | 4.2% |
| 3/29/2022 | -16.1% | 7.3% |
| 12/9/2021 | -8.1% | -5.1% |
| 9/1/2021 | -9.3% | 11.2% |
| 3/30/2021 | 5.4% | -2.9% |
| CORRELATION | 16.2% |
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