Oracle Stock To $156?

Oracle (ORCL) stock has jumped 10% during the past week, and is currently trading at $221.53. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to reduce exposure to ORCL stock. We are primarily concerned current valuation and a price of $156 may not be out of reach. We believe there is not much to fear in ORCL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. But given its Very High valuation, the stock appears Relatively Expensive.

Below is our assessment:

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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $626 Bil in market cap, Oracle provides cloud software applications, industry-specific solutions, application licenses, license support services, enterprise databases, software development tools, and middleware.

[1] Valuation Looks Very High

This table highlights how ORCL is valued vs broader market. For more details see: ORCL Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Strong

• Oracle has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 10.2% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 9.7% from $54 Bil to $59 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 12.2% to $15 Bil in the most recent quarter from $13 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how ORCL is growing vs broader market. For more details see: ORCL Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Very Strong

• ORCL last 12 month operating income was $19 Bil representing operating margin of 31.6%
• With cash flow margin of 36.5%, it generated nearly $22 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, ORCL generated nearly $12 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 21.1%

This table highlights how ORCL profitability vs broader market. For more details see: ORCL Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• ORCL Debt was $105 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $626 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 16.9%
• ORCL Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $11 Bil of $180 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 6.1%

[5] Downturn Resilience Is Strong

ORCL has been more resilient than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• ORCL stock fell 41.1% from a high of $103.65 on 15 December 2021 to $61.07 on 30 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 25 May 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $328.33 on 10 September 2025 , and currently trades at $221.53

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• ORCL stock fell 28.6% from a high of $55.73 on 12 February 2020 to $39.80 on 12 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 2 July 2020

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• ORCL stock fell 41.1% from a high of $23.52 on 8 August 2008 to $13.85 on 9 March 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2009

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