What’s The Upside For XRP Price?

The price of XRP is currently trading around $2.45. This represents a significant decline, sitting 33% below its July all-time high of $3.65 and 15% below its level a month ago.

While the immediate price action appears weak, several fundamental catalysts suggest that this downturn may, in fact, present a compelling buying opportunity for patient investors.

The primary factor contributing to this recent weakness is the delay in SEC rulings on XRP spot ETF applications, which was triggered by the recent government shutdown. This regulatory bottleneck has understandably dampened short-term market sentiment.

Although multiple asset managers have initiated the 20-day automatic approval countdown under Section 8(a), the continued regulatory uncertainty surrounding these applications remains the dominant force weighing on the XRP price. Well, till the time SEC doesn’t intervene, these spot ETFs will be launched sometime this month.

Now, the key question is what happens to XRP price once the ETFs are approved? We think it can spike to levels past $5. We’ll delve into the details in the sections below. That said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock or token like XRP, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

Image by Miloslav Hamřík from Pixabay

What Could Drive XRP to $5?

The ETF catalyst looks imminent. XRP met the key regulated futures trading requirement in November after listings on major derivatives platforms earlier this year. Market consensus sees spot XRP ETF approval highly likely. Once the ETFs hit the market, institutional capital could flow in, potentially driving prices sharply higher—very possibly past $5. That would mean over 2x upside from current levels and a new cycle high.

But Why $5? Historical Precedent: Bitcoin & Ethereum ETF Rallies

The answer lies in a question – how did other major tokens react to spot ETF launches? When spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, Bitcoin’s price surged from near $40,000 to over $70,000 within six months—a gain of more than 75%. Looking at the twelve months post-ETF approval, Bitcoin traded at levels above $100,000, implying solid 150% gains. This rally was fueled by billions in inflows from both retail and institutional investors, with Bitcoin setting fresh all-time highs.

Similarly, when news of Ethereum spot ETF approval broke in May 2024, ETH jumped from below $3,000 to nearly $3,900 in just weeks, and then continued climbing once trading actually opened. Admittedly, it has been volatile and has seen lower levels this year as well. Strong institutional demand and the legitimacy afforded by the ETF structure created a wave of capital and set the stage for sustained price momentum. These events clearly demonstrate that spot ETF launches can dramatically alter market sentiment and trigger powerful rallies.

Is There Real Business Growth Underneath?

Absolutely. Real-world asset (RWA) value on the XRP Ledger reached $364.9 million as of mid-October 2025, up 4.3% in just 30 days. More impressively, RWA transfer volumes surged 42% over the past month, signaling accelerating institutional adoption. Ripple acquired GTreasury in October 2025 for $1 billion to expand into the corporate treasury market, while Evernorth, a Ripple-backed entity, is raising over $1 billion to create an institutional XRP treasury through a SPAC merger, validating XRP’s utility for cross-border settlements beyond speculative trading.

What Are the Risks?

Could the price remain weak? Yes. Despite positive fundamentals, technical price action has been poor, with key support at $2.20 being tested. The SEC could still intervene and delay or deny ETF approvals, and the broader crypto market faces macroeconomic headwinds. Wondering about downside risk for XRP? Look at our take on – How XRP Price Falls To $1?

Analysts note that a portion of Ripple’s XRP supply remains locked in a smart contract-based escrow system. But it should be noted that while 1 billion XRP is released monthly, Ripple typically re-locks most of the unused amount (around 70–80%) back into escrow. This managed release process, designed to provide market predictability and prevent sudden supply shocks, means the actual market impact and any potential selling pressure are significantly less than the raw monthly release figure might suggest. The overall process is expected to continue for many years.

Remember, investing in a single stock or token without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.

The Verdict

For those with a 2-3 year horizon, current prices could be highly attractive if the ETF catalyst materializes and institutional adoption continues. Conservative investors might choose to wait for official approvals, while risk-tolerant buyers could begin averaging in now, recognizing the potential volatility.

Overall, XRP has cleared regulatory hurdles, is showing strong on-chain growth, and sits on the cusp of potentially transformative institutional demand. If ETF approvals are confirmed—as they were for Bitcoin and Ethereum—XRP could see a similar, powerful move above $5. The stage is set, but risk management remains key.

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