Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Crypto Market Update 9/19/2025: Where Is The Capital Flowing & Why It Matters?
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity rose 0.2% yesterday, also gaining over the past week and month.
- Bonds held steady at 0% yesterday, after falling 0.2% for the week but rising 1.2% over the month.
- Gold gained 1.1% yesterday and showed gains for the week and month as well.
- Commodities fell 0.8% yesterday, with weekly returns at -0.4% and monthly returns at 1.8%.
- Real Estate dropped 0.7% yesterday, extending weekly losses to 1.2% but rising 1% monthly.
- Bitcoin increased 0.2% yesterday and remains positive for both the week and month.
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.0% |
| Bonds | AGG | 0.0% | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| Gold | GLD | 1.1% | 1.1% | 10.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | -0.8% | -0.4% | 1.8% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7% | -1.2% | 1.0% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.7% |
Why does it matter?
- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
We take a macro-conscious approach to strategic asset allocation, even within equities – adjusting exposure across sectors and styles in High Quality Portfolio
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 14.9% | 15.3% | 79.8% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.8% | 5.1% | -12.1% |
| Gold | GLD | 12.3% | 14.0% | 71.6% |
| Commodities | DBC | 4.7% | 16.1% | 20.3% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 6.3% | 17.8% | 30.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 85.7% | 76.1% | 113.4% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 11% | 20% | 11% | 4.8% | 13% | 2.0% | 35% | 25% | 26% | 73% | 70% | 62% | 24% | 37% | 39% |
| Bonds | 11% | 20% | 11% | – | 35% | 35% | 16% | -0.2% | -2.5% | -6.7% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.3% |
| Gold | 4.8% | 13% | 2.0% | 35% | 35% | 16% | – | 26% | 33% | 38% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 10% | 8.8% | 3.9% |
| Commodities | 35% | 25% | 26% | -0.2% | -2.5% | -6.7% | 26% | 33% | 38% | – | 23% | 16% | 14% | 9.7% | 12% | 7.9% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 70% | 62% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 23% | 16% | 14% | – | 17% | 24% | 19% |
| Bitcoin | 24% | 37% | 39% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.3% | 10% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 9.7% | 12% | 7.9% | 17% | 24% | 19% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.