NRG Dropped 14% In A Day. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk?
NRG Energy (NRG) stock is down 13.6% in a day. The stock looks fairly priced at the moment, though history suggests you may benefit from buying dips. Consider the following data:
- A $29 Bil company with $29 Bil in revenue currently trading at $148.56.
- Last 12 month revenue growth of 2.6% and operating margin of 8.7%.
- Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.4 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.0
- Currently trading at P/E multiple of 21.6 and P/EBIT multiple of 12.3
- Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 80.8% within a year. See NRG Dip Buy Analysis.
While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for NRG, see Buy or Sell NRG Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and NRG drops another 20-30% to $103.99 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.
Below is a deep dive into NRG Energy (NRG) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.
NRG operates a diverse U.S. power generation portfolio with 18,000 MW capacity across 25 plants, utilizing natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- NRG stock fell 33.8% from a high of $46.85 on 25 May 2022 to $31.03 on 19 January 2023 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 November 2023
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $173.91 on 4 August 2025 , and currently trades at $148.56
| NRG | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -33.8% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 299 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- NRG stock fell 45.1% from a high of $40.06 on 14 February 2020 to $21.99 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 12 January 2021
| NRG | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -45.1% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 300 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- NRG stock fell 23.2% from a high of $43.37 on 21 March 2019 to $33.30 on 7 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 March 2021
| NRG | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -23.2% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 586 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- NRG stock fell 67.7% from a high of $46.90 on 18 October 2007 to $15.17 on 10 October 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 14 November 2023
| NRG | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -67.7% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 5513 days | 1480 days |
Worried that NRG could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.