CMG’s 13% Decline in a Day Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is QSR a Better Deal?

+3.35%
Upside
34.87
Market
36.04
Trefis
CMG: Chipotle Mexican Grill logo
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill

QSR offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation.

  • QSR’s quarterly revenue growth was 21.3%, vs. CMG’s 6.4%.
  • In addition, its Last 12 Months growth came in at 22.4%, ahead of CMG’s 12.6%.
  • QSR leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 26.4% and 3-year average of 29.2%.

That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Valuation & Performance Overview

CMG QSR Preferred
Valuation
P/EBIT Ratio 30.6 9.9 QSR
Revenue Growth
Last Quarter 6.4% 21.3% QSR
Last 12 Months 12.6% 22.4% QSR
Last 3 Year Average 13.7% 14.1% QSR
Operating Margins
Last 12 Months 17.6% 26.4% QSR
Last 3 Year Average 16.6% 29.2% QSR
Momentum
Last 3 Year Return 69.7% 48.5% CMG

Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: CMG Revenue Comparison | QSR Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: CMG Operating Income Comparison | QSR Operating Income Comparison

Relevant Articles
  1. Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock at Support Zone – Bargain or Trap?
  2. Better Value & Growth: CMG, YUM Lead Starbucks Stock
  3. CMG, YUM Look Smarter Buy Than Starbucks Stock
  4. Why Chipotle’s Selloff May Not Be Over Yet
  5. Better Value & Growth: CMG, YUM Lead Starbucks Stock
  6. Pay Less, Gain More: CMG, YUM Top Starbucks Stock

Historical Market Performance

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total [1] Avg Best
Returns
CMG Return 66% 26% -21% 65% 32% -12% 234% <===
QSR Return -0% 3% 11% 25% -14% 11% 28%
S&P 500 Return 16% 27% -19% 24% 23% 8% 94%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMG Win Rate 67% 50% 42% 67% 67% 33% 54%
QSR Win Rate 58% 50% 50% 67% 33% 50% 51%
S&P 500 Win Rate 58% 75% 42% 67% 75% 50% 61% <===
Max Drawdowns [4]
CMG Max Drawdown -44% -6% -31% -2% -3% -24% -18%
QSR Max Drawdown -55% -9% -22% -6% -15% -7% -19%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown -31% -1% -25% -1% -2% -15% -12% <===

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] 2025 data is for the year till date (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year