CMG Stock Down 21%, Is It Time To Buy The Dip?

Chipotle Mexican Grill stock has fallen by 21.5% in less than a month, from levels of $58.24 on 7/1/2025 to $45.74 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.

As it turns out, Chipotle Mexican Grill passes basic quality checks. However, it only has one past instance where it dipped sharply (>30% in 30 days), and returned 141% in one year and 157% as peak return subsequently.

That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

Historical Median Returns Post Dips

Historical Dip-Wise Details

CMG had 1 events since 1/1/2020 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered

• 157% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
• 334 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
• -23% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event

Chipotle Mexican Grill Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks

Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.

Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.