Tough Times Behind Yahoo? Not So Fast!

Just when we thought that Scott Thompson was getting ready to reinvent Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), the two longstanding issues of selling its Asian assets and disgruntled shareholders continue to plague the company. There seems to be a a tug-of-war going on among key investors as the Yahoo management is installing their recommended individuals on the company’s board. Coincidentally, Yahoo’s talks to sell its Asian assets has also reportedly hit a roadblock. The combined effect of these two unfortunate developments will be a further distraction for the management as it tries to turn around Yahoo’s display advertising business in the face of intense competition from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Facebook.

See our full analysis for Yahoo’s stock here

Can Daniel Loeb be the Decisive Factor?

While the timing of these two developments could not have been worse, the combined impact may provide some relief in expediting the Asian asset sale of Alibaba and Yahoo Japan. Here’s why.

A recent Reuters report ^[1] provides the following reason for the Asian asset sale being put on hold:

“Two people briefed on the situation described the deal as effectively dead in the water – noting the unreasonable terms sought by Yahoo during talks in Hong Kong and a disconnect between Yahoo’s negotiating team and its strategic stakeholders.”

The negotiating team mentioned above includes Roy Bostock, who has now decided to step down from Yahoo. Incidentally, a swift exit of incumbent board members is exactly what disgruntled investors like Daniel Loeb have been pushing for.

As cited in the SEC filing by Third Point LLC, ^[2] Loeb is aggressively pushing for new team members on the board who have relevant experience in technology and media, instead of hand-picked members selected by the previous board. If this happens, a complete revamp in Yahoo’s leadership as well as the negotiating team could be imminent. This could bring in the necessary sense of urgency to expedite the sale of Yahoo’s Alibaba and Yahoo Japan stakes.

We have a revised price estimate of $17 for Yahoo’s stock, which is roughly 12% above the current market price.

Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis

1. Yahoo-Alibaba talks falling apart, Reuters, 15th Feb 2012 [↩]
2. Schedule 13D, Securities and Exchange Commission, 14th Feb 2012 [↩]