Coach: Divided Against Itself?

The Coach (NYSE:COH) brand is an affordable mid range designer handbag brand. It offers luxury products at price points where the European luxury players cannot compete effectively. At the same time, its handbags come with a quality and price tags that put them in the category of luxury for most consumers. Despite such specific brand positioning, Coach has seen its market share fall from 19% to 17.5% between 2011 and 2012. Much of this share has been grabbed by competitors such as Michael Kors, Kate Spade and Tory Burch.

In Q2 F2014, comparable store sales in North America, which exclude newly opened stores and recently close stores, were down by 13.6%, gross profits fell by ~10 %, and gross margin contracted three percentage points. In contrast, Michael Kors’ most recent earnings report saw a 24% increase in comparable store sales, accompanied by a 50% jump in sales in North America, the company’s strongest market.

The tepid performance over the past three calendar years has nudged Coach into a change of management and subsequently a change in strategy. In this article, we look at how the new management at the company is trying to reclaim a strong position in the luxury goods market.

Read our complete analysis for Coach, Inc

Higher Average Unit Prices

In the earnings call for Q2 F2014, the company’s management pointed out that average unit prices (AUP) had risen by 7% last year as it added newer product and designs. Moreover, the company expects the  AUP to continue to increase as the first products from Stuart Vevers, who replaced Reed Krakoff as executive creative director last summer, reach stores in September.

This raises a point which should be of interest: In pushing prices higher, is Coach leaving itself vulnerable to be undercut by Michael Kors? After all, Michael Kors’ best selling bag, the Selma Messenger, falls in the $200-$300 price range, whereas Coach’s most popular Borough Bag starts at $378. If Coach was already losing market share to Michael Kors, won’t raising the prices of its products further accelerate the decline in its market share? ^[1] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304632204579336340075903928

This worry is ill-founded. As the company’s management pointed out in the earnings call, Coach continues to be very active in the $200-$400 space. Furthermore, the company is beginning to focus across channels in a more targeted way. The company has plans to diversify its product portfolio and target each channel specifically. It means that in the future assortments from Coach in the highly price sensitive wholesale channel will be different from those in its flagship stores and those intended for sale in the secondary markets. Coach also plans to open 15 factory stores in North America this year, close 15 to 20 full-line stores and expand 20 locations. ^[2] http://seekingalpha.com/article/1959761-coachs-ceo-discusses-f2q-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript

Additionally, the trend towards a higher AUP shows that the company has identified an opportunity in the >$400 price point range. Coach’s European competitors, like Louis Vuitton, Hermes and Burberry, do not sell leather bags below $1500 and $2000. There is an opportunity for Coach here to enter with lower prices, but higher perceived value and quality, consistent with its brand name. It is a space that the company’s new creative director, Stuart Vevers, knows well, having previously worked at the European houses of Loewe and Mulberry.

Factory Channel Too Dominant

However, the news that Coach plans to open 15 new factory stores in North America raises an old doubt. The company might be propping up its brand through one channel(flagship stores) but depreciating it through the factory channel.

Factory sales comprise nearly 70% of Coach’s total retail business, up from 40% a decade ago. This is a worrying trend for two  reasons :

• The factory sales figure figure represents nearly 50% of total sales, a percentage that is too high for a true luxury company.
• Given the easy availability of information on the Internet, and the pre-shopping opportunities of selection that it provides, it is possible that customers who want to buy Coach’s products are foregoing shopping in its retail stores and waiting for the same products to come up at its factory outlets, at lower prices. This might be the factor that is causing same store sales for Coach to go down. ^[3]
• If this trend continues, it might become increasingly difficult for the company to charge a full price for its products.

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1. Coach Earnings Fall on North American Weakness, Wall Street Journal, January 2014 [↩]
2. Coach CEO discusses Q2F2014 Earnings, Seeking Alpha, January 2014 [↩]
3. Coach Outlet vs Retail [↩]