Trefis Members Optimistic on SanDisk’s Mobile Flash Memory Biz
Trefis members have created forecasts for two key drivers of SanDisk’s (NYSE:SNDK) stock over the last week: (1) SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share and (2) Global Mobile Phone Units. The member forecasts suggest that SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share as well as Global Mobile Phone Units will trend above Trefis estimates. These projections indicate a combined upside of around 8% for our estimate for SanDisk’s stock.
SanDisk manufactures flash memory cards used in mobile phones made by mobile phone makers like Motorola (NYSE:MOT), Nokia (NYSE:NOK), and Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM). We currently have a Trefis price estimate of around $50 for SanDisk’s stock, about 20% above the current market price of close to $42.
Mobile Phone Flash Cards is the most important division for SanDisk, constituting around 43% of its stock value. We believe SanDisk’s stock is quite sensitive to (1) SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share and (2) Global Mobile Phone Units. Below are charts showing recent estimates created by Trefis members for the two drivers in detail.
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1. SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share
The average of Trefis member forecasts for SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share indicate an increase from around 36% in 2010 to around 39% by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 33% in 2010 to around 34% by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 5% to the Trefis price estimate for SanDisk’s stock. In the past, SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share has decreased from around 41% in 2005 to 32% in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of SanDisk’s stock to SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share.
Our complete analysis for SanDisk Mobile Phone Flash Memory Market Share is here.
The average of Trefis member forecasts for Global Mobile Phone Units indicate an increase from 1.3 billion in 2010 to close to 2 billion by 2016, compared to the baseline Trefis estimate of an increase from 1.3 billion in 2010 to 1.8 billion by the end of the Trefis forecast period. The member estimates imply an upside of 3% to the Trefis price estimate for SanDisk’s stock. In the past, Global Mobile Phone Units has increased from about 900 million in 2005 to around 1.2 billion in 2009.
Disagree? You can drag the forecast trend-line above to express your own view, and see the sensitivity of SanDisk’s stock to Global Mobile Phone Units.